Kentucky, Clinton +5, PPP
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Author Topic: Kentucky, Clinton +5, PPP  (Read 1862 times)
A Perez
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« on: March 06, 2016, 12:27:03 PM »

Surprising

http://washingtonmonthly.com/stuff/KYDemResults.pdf
March 1-2.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2016, 12:32:23 PM »

The crosstabs of this poll make no sense at all.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2016, 12:38:29 PM »

Quote
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LOL.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2016, 12:42:08 PM »

Clinton did rather well at the Appalachian counties of Virginia and Georgia, so this might not be too far from reality.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2016, 12:48:12 PM »


I'm guessing the other Hillary voters won't be voting in the Democratic primary this year, having all switched over to being Republicans in either 2008 or 2012. And that's not a huge exaggeration.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2016, 12:52:25 PM »

I imagine there might be a fairly large number of Hillary 08/Trump 16 voters in Kentucky
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2016, 03:29:09 PM »

Considering the results in Oklahoma, I wouldn't be surprised if Sanders does decently in Kentucky.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2016, 03:31:29 PM »

Sanders will probably win here if he still has a semi-serious campaign going on by then. Big if.
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Shadows
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« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2016, 03:55:49 PM »

I am surprised, I expected Sanders to win Oregon but loose Kentucky, both of which go to polls in the same day.

This is a welcome surprise, I doubt if Bernie will be a viable challenger then.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2016, 04:15:28 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2016, 04:17:02 PM by Likely Voter »

KY is one of the Clinton 2008 states Sanders has to win if he was to actually be viable. It is one of the Sanders target states on the 538 path for him.  If he still has money by then he could win it but he may  need to concentrate on OR win if his funds start slowing
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2016, 08:14:30 PM »

Sanders will probably win here if he still has a semi-serious campaign going on by then. Big if.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2016, 10:34:26 PM »

New Poll: Kentucky President by Public Policy Polling on 2016-03-02

Summary:
Clinton:
43%
Sanders:
38%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
19%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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jfern
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2016, 07:20:30 AM »

None of the post March 15 states are terrible for Bernie, including the lone former confederate state.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2016, 08:32:55 AM »

None of the post March 15 states are terrible for Bernie, including the lone former confederate state.

None of them? Well surely that's not true. What about Maryland? It's 61% white and 30% black, in comparison to 60% white and 31% black in Georgia. It's also less white then Louisiana (64% white) or Alabama (69% white.) That's probably going to be a blowout. There's also states like New Jersey and New York that I'd bet dollars to donuts are going to be pretty big blowouts for Clinton.

Clinton's also posted huge leads in random other states like, off the top of my head, Arizona: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_democratic_presidential_primary-5466.html

There are at least a few huge Clinton blowouts left.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2016, 08:41:45 AM »

None of the post March 15 states are terrible for Bernie, including the lone former confederate state.

None of them? Well surely that's not true. What about Maryland? It's 61% white and 30% black, in comparison to 60% white and 31% black in Georgia. It's also less white then Louisiana (64% white) or Alabama (69% white.) That's probably going to be a blowout. There's also states like New Jersey and New York that I'd bet dollars to donuts are going to be pretty big blowouts for Clinton.

Clinton's also posted huge leads in random other states like, off the top of my head, Arizona: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_democratic_presidential_primary-5466.html

There are at least a few huge Clinton blowouts left.

There are also Delaware, Arizona, New Mexico and California.
Jfern engages in wishful thinking as usual.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2016, 09:36:36 AM »

None of the post March 15 states are terrible for Bernie, including the lone former confederate state.

None of them? Well surely that's not true. What about Maryland? It's 61% white and 30% black, in comparison to 60% white and 31% black in Georgia. It's also less white then Louisiana (64% white) or Alabama (69% white.) That's probably going to be a blowout. There's also states like New Jersey and New York that I'd bet dollars to donuts are going to be pretty big blowouts for Clinton.

Clinton's also posted huge leads in random other states like, off the top of my head, Arizona: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_democratic_presidential_primary-5466.html

There are at least a few huge Clinton blowouts left.

There are also Delaware, Arizona, New Mexico and California.
Jfern engages in wishful thinking as usual.

And DC, where Sanders will probably flirt with 15% if he's lucky. DC has 20 delegates.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2016, 09:37:57 AM »

None of the post March 15 states are terrible for Bernie, including the lone former confederate state.

None of them? Well surely that's not true. What about Maryland? It's 61% white and 30% black, in comparison to 60% white and 31% black in Georgia. It's also less white then Louisiana (64% white) or Alabama (69% white.) That's probably going to be a blowout. There's also states like New Jersey and New York that I'd bet dollars to donuts are going to be pretty big blowouts for Clinton.

Clinton's also posted huge leads in random other states like, off the top of my head, Arizona: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_democratic_presidential_primary-5466.html

There are at least a few huge Clinton blowouts left.

Maryland is also home to a lot of "Establishment" wealthy white Dems. John's Hopkins and UMD are not going to carry Bernie across the finish line there.
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Smash255
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« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2016, 02:24:47 PM »

None of the post March 15 states are terrible for Bernie, including the lone former confederate state.

None of them? Well surely that's not true. What about Maryland? It's 61% white and 30% black, in comparison to 60% white and 31% black in Georgia. It's also less white then Louisiana (64% white) or Alabama (69% white.) That's probably going to be a blowout. There's also states like New Jersey and New York that I'd bet dollars to donuts are going to be pretty big blowouts for Clinton.

Clinton's also posted huge leads in random other states like, off the top of my head, Arizona: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_democratic_presidential_primary-5466.html

There are at least a few huge Clinton blowouts left.


Whites in Maryland are considerably more Democratic than whites in Georgia and Louisiana....


Not saying the state doesn't obviously favor Clinton, but just because the overall % of blacks are about the same, doesn't mean the actual Primary % will match.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2016, 06:21:59 PM »

None of the post March 15 states are terrible for Bernie, including the lone former confederate state.

None of them? Well surely that's not true. What about Maryland? It's 61% white and 30% black, in comparison to 60% white and 31% black in Georgia. It's also less white then Louisiana (64% white) or Alabama (69% white.)

Well besides that non-Southern Whites (obv excluding MD here) are significantly less Democratic, as Smash said, Maryland is also only 52.6% non-Hispanic White, per 2014 census updated projections. However, because of how much more Democratic the Whites are in MD, they will be a bigger force in the primary.

He's not going to win that state or narrow the gap IMO. I'd say 60%+ Clinton, at least. It just won't be an Alabama-style blowout.
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