Yep, of course Ayotte being up 4 against a known opponent in a D+1 state means that she's the underdog, while Kirk being down 6 against a relatively unknown opponent in a D+8 state means that he's favored. Totally makes sense.
Not saying Kirk is favored, just that it's a Tossup. And yes, it does make sense. Climbing Maggie won't be able to run sexist ads this time like she did against Havenstein and Lamontagne, but she will still pander to women voters. Ayotte needs at least 45% of angry women to win this race. That's almost impossible for her to achieve. 47% of NH residents would vote for a virus with a D next to its name, it's one of the most inelastic states in the country. Being a woman doesn't get you elected in Illinois, on the other hand.
Being a Democrat does, as long as it's not a wave year for Republicans, where Republicans can beat damaged Democrats by narrow margins. Kirk was very lucky in 2010. He could be lucky again in 2016, but saying that he's got 50/50 odds is being far too generous, IMO. Not going to address the absurd NH nonsense.
