Murphy ahead in primary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MURPHY LEADS 36-29, Dems are on track to nominate the electable Candidate.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/204129-hillary-clinton-puts-tv-commercials-orlando-radio-ads-south-florida

[Maxwell]

Weak margin, undecideds are way too high.

[Vosem]

How unfortunate that Democrats won't punt here.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

YES! YES!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Grayson made the mistake of crossing the establishment by endorsing Bernie, so Obama went all out for Murphy.

[windjammer]

Grayson made the mistake of crossing the establishment by endorsing Bernie, so Obama went all out for Murphy.

I cant say I m surprised you support Alan corrupt hedge fund Grayson

[Gass3268]

Grayson made the mistake of crossing the establishment by endorsing Bernie, so Obama went all out for Murphy.

Grayson is a POS and does not deserve Progressive support.

[JerryArkansas]

I find it funny people think Grayson is the progressive option in the race.  He's a flip-flopping bomb thrower just in the vein of Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney, with the added corruption and hypocrisy of a Southern Senator screwing his black maid.

[Xing]

(insert "it's happening" meme here)

[Maxwell]

The reason I fear a Grayson win is this much: what is Murphy's campaign about? being electable? not being Alan Grayson? who cares.

Grayson, however cynically, is aiming at voters and has a campaign on being the most progressive man ever. there's little truth there, but it is something.

I project Florida screws up again and nominates Grayson. I hope they don't.

But even if they do nominate Murphy, thus far I've been unimpressed with his Senate campaign.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The reason I fear a Grayson win is this much: what is Murphy's campaign about? being electable? not being Alan Grayson? who cares.

Grayson, however cynically, is aiming at voters and has a campaign on being the most progressive man ever. there's little truth there, but it is something.

I project Florida screws up again and nominates Grayson. I hope they don't.

But even if they do nominate Murphy, thus far I've been unimpressed with his Senate campaign.

I don't think he's even really campaigned thus far.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If Murphy wins the Democratic nomination, is there ANY chance the GOP can hold this seat? Or should they just concede the race?  /s

There is about a fifty/fifty chance. Murphy is strong at retail politics, but he isn't the great political genius he is made out to be. If he were, he'd be in a strong lead over Grayson.

[Xing]

If Murphy wins the Democratic nomination, is there ANY chance the GOP can hold this seat? Or should they just concede the race?  /s

There is about a fifty/fifty chance. Murphy is strong at retail politics, but he isn't the great political genius he is made out to be. If he were, he'd be in a strong lead over Grayson.

Who's the best Republican candidate to take him on? DeSantis strikes me as too conservative to win in FL. But then again, CLC and Jolly might be a bit overrated as well.

Probably Jolly.

[IceSpear]

Hope the FL Dems don't shoot themselves in the foot like the PA Dems have.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If Murphy wins the Democratic nomination, is there ANY chance the GOP can hold this seat? Or should they just concede the race?  /s

There is about a fifty/fifty chance. Murphy is strong at retail politics, but he isn't the great political genius he is made out to be. If he were, he'd be in a strong lead over Grayson.

Who's the best Republican candidate to take him on? DeSantis strikes me as too conservative to win in FL. But then again, CLC and Jolly might be a bit overrated as well.

DeSantis is about the same as circa 2010 Rubio. If Rubio could win with another "Republican" in the race, then DeSantis can. DeSantis has the best campaign team, IMO.

[RRusso1982]

I would say Jolly.  Lopez Cantera is the lieutenant governor to an unpopular governor and DeSantis is too conservative. 

[RRusso1982]

Here is a question.  Why is it that the Republicans dominate everything on the state level in Florida?  Obviously, Florida is a very competitive 2 party state on the national level, but Republicans have won the last 5 gubernatorial elections, every other state constitutional office holder is a Republican, and the Republicans hold huge majorities in the legislature.  Bill Nelson is the only statewide elected Democrat in Florida. 

[Virginiá]

Here is a question.  Why is it that the Republicans dominate everything on the state level in Florida?  Obviously, Florida is a very competitive 2 party state on the national level, but Republicans have won the last 5 gubernatorial elections, every other state constitutional office holder is a Republican, and the Republicans hold huge majorities in the legislature.  Bill Nelson is the only statewide elected Democrat in Florida. 

Well, if you look at many states on an individual basis, you'll see similar if not more extreme patterns. Alabama was Democratic at the state level all the way up until 2010 or so, but voted Republican for president for a long, long time before that.

A couple things to keep in mind though:

1. FL gov race/legislative races (some) take place during midterms, which gives influence to older folks, who at this point in time consist of more conservative voters (this won't always be the case). This electorate is also whiter than presidential elections and turnout is lower, both of which also benefit the GOP right now.

2. State/local level politicians can run campaigns more suited for their area(s) rather than a national campaign, which has to try and cobble together a coalition based on the national platform. This is why Republicans can get elected more easily in blue states - They don't have to campaign on divisive social issues (among others).

More inclusive campaigns allow them to pick up more voters from all sorts of demographics. However, it should be noted that the FL Hispanic electorate has been realigning away from the FL GOP since Obama first got elected, so their already weak statewide performances will continue to drop and 2018 might see a Democratic governor if the party can recruit a strong candidate.

3. As for the legislature - Gerrymandering has allowed them to maintain power more strongly than they might otherwise, and the FL Senate map was redrawn late last year, so Democrats have a great chance to seriously dent the FL GOP's Senate majority and a very, very thin chance to tie them. iirc, the number of Senate districts that voted Obama (even by slim margins) was 20 or so. So Florida could be seeing a State legislature more like Virginia, where the State Senate is very close and constantly switching hands, while the GOP maintains a relatively strong majority in the State House.

There may be some other factors, but I think those are the most obvious.