MI-Wood-TV/EPIC-MRA: Trump+10

[Tender Branson]

The survey was conducted between Feb. 27 and Feb 29, 2016. The margin of error is 4.9 percent.

http://woodtv.com/2016/03/02/mi-gop-poll-trump-least-favorable-but-top-contender

http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/03/02/trump-holds-10-point-lead-michigan-gop-primary/81200942

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Trump is down 10% compared with previous polls ...

[The Free North]

Kasich in single digits in a next door state is not a good sign.

[Eraserhead]

Kasich in single digits in a next door state is not a good sign.

I would think he would make this his last stand here. I'm sure he doesn't want to risk losing Ohio while he's still an official candidate.

[jaichind]

In theory the high number of undecided is positive for  Rubio since he tends to win the late deciders.

[Classic Conservative]

In theory the high number of undecided is positive for  Rubio since he tends to win the late deciders.

After last night too??? Check Marco's Facebook feed my friend.

[Crumpets]

Of course Trump does well with epic MRAs.

[Maxwell]

EPIC polls are trash, for the record.

I do want to see how Kasich polls post-Super Tuesday. A lot of Rubio voters are going to be re-thinking their options.

[Pandaguineapig]

Western Michigan is a place that Cruz could do well in, very religious and socially conservative area

[Xing]

I wanted to say that I'd like to see some Democratic numbers, but then I remembered that this is EPIC-MRA...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Splendid news! Cruz's momentum will allow him to crush the empty suit from Florida and possibly come close to Trump.

[Vosem]

Kasich in single digits in a next door state is not a good sign.

I don't think many Ohioans are going to be basing their votes off how Kasich does in Michigan.

Anyway, as a closed primary in a Midwestern state, Trump will only be winning Michigan (probably likelier than not, imo) through a split in the vote. The state is proportional (I have to check Erc's thread for the threshold, but it won't be higher than 20% and Trump/Cruz/Rubio will all make that number), so it won't affect the delegate math overmuch, unlike the March 15 states. Either Cruz or Rubio could conceivably win here; a Cruz win would look good for him since Michigan is outside his typical geographic base, whereas a Rubio win would demonstrate that his campaign is still alive (at least until the FL vote).

A single, unified establishment option would clearly be favored here, but with Kasich still in the race and the media starting to question his campaign the chance that Rubio finishes third is very real. I don't particularly trust EPIC-MRA polling, though this poll feels about right to me.

[Lief 🗽]

Michigan is an open primary, Vosem.

[Vosem]

Michigan is an open primary, Vosem.

Ah. Ballotpedia told me earlier today that it was closed; perhaps a stray, now-corrected error. It's since been corrected. Makes a _trump win very likely, unfortunately, though this still doesn't seem like too favorable of a state for him and Cruz+Rubio will certainly both eclipse 15% and get more delegates than _trump (none of that CD bullsh**t here); if a brokered convention is the new endgame Michigan still helps rather than hurts. Won't be good for momentum purposes, though (unless the media catches on that _trump is losing when he receives less than 50% of delegates in a state; they love having a competitive race so I have to assume they will).

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

All evidence points to Michigan being an incredibly favorable state to him. It's not the northeast, but it's sure as anything significantly better than the Upper Midwest. (Polling has even found him strong in the Upper Peninsula IIRC! In addition to the Detroit area)

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Michigan President by EPIC/MRA on 2016-02-29

Summary:

Trump:	29%
Cruz:	19%
Rubio:	18%
Carson:	8%
Kasich:	8%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[jimrtex]

Michigan is an open primary, Vosem.

Ah. Ballotpedia told me earlier today that it was closed; perhaps a stray, now-corrected error. It's since been corrected. Makes a _trump win very likely, unfortunately, though this still doesn't seem like too favorable of a state for him and Cruz+Rubio will certainly both eclipse 15% and get more delegates than _trump (none of that CD bullsh**t here); if a brokered convention is the new endgame Michigan still helps rather than hurts. Won't be good for momentum purposes, though (unless the media catches on that _trump is losing when he receives less than 50% of delegates in a state; they love having a competitive race so I have to assume they will).

In Michigan, partisan primaries are conducted as a pick-a-party, where a voter is given a ballot for each party, and then selects their party in secret.

This is in contrast to the presidential preference primary, where a voter must publicly select a party before receiving a ballot. From a Michigan perspective this is a "closed primary", because for the next five minutes after filling out that ballot application, you are locked into the party.

The DNC in particular requires that presidential preference primaries be restricted to bona fide Democrats, but accepts someone saying "gimme one of those Democrat ballots" as good enough. In past elections, the DNC has not accepted results from the Michigan primary because they were conducted like other Michigan elections.

[President Johnson]

Looks like a junk poll. TRUMP will be way over 30%, probably even over 40%.