Montana: Mason-Dixon gives Burns, Rehberg early lead over challengers

[Sam Spade]

http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?id=1&display=rednews/2005/05/29/build/state/35-incumbents-lead.inc

Summary from this early Mason-Dixon poll:

MT Senate Race 2006
Burns fav/unfav ratings were:  45% favorable, 24% unfavorable, 30% neutral, 1% not recognizing him.
Conrad Burns 49%, John Morrison 34%, undecided 17%
Conrad Burns 50%, John Tester 26%, undecided 24%
Conrad Burns 56%, Daniel Kimmis 23%, undecided 21% (Kimmis announced he wouldn't run Thursday)
Polls were not given against Clint Wilkes and Paul Richards.

MT House Race 2006
No one has yet declared a run against Danny Rehberg, but they polled someon against him.
Rehberg fav/unfav ratings were: 56% favorable, 21% unfavorable, 19% neutral, 4% not recognizing him.
Danny Rehberg 58%, Monica Lindeen 24%, undecided 18%

Burns, Rehberg lead potential foes early on

By CHARLES S. JOHNSON
Gazette State Bureau

HELENA - Both Republican U.S. Sen. Conrad Burns and Rep. Denny Rehberg lead trial matchups against potential Democratic opponents for the 2006 election and, as incumbents, are far better known among voters, a new Gazette State Poll shows.

The telephone survey, taken May 23-25 of 625 likely Montana voters by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

If the 2006 Senate election were held today, Burns would defeat state Auditor John Morrison, a Democrat, by a 49 to 34 percent margin, with 17 percent undecided. Burns leads among men by a 54 to 33 percent and among women by a 44 to 35 percent majority, with the rest undecided.

Burns, 70, is a former Yellowstone County commissioner and agricultural broadcaster who already has raised $2.2 million for the 2006 race. Morrison, 43, a Helena attorney, was elected to his second term as state auditor in November and announced his Senate candidacy in April.

"Burns is under 50 (percent) against Morrison, but at 49 (percent) I don't see him as vulnerable, but would keep an eye on him," said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker. "If he were 44-45 (percent), I'd put it into the category of potential upsets. Right now, he could be doing a little better against Morrison, but he's not in the super danger zone."

In another test, Burns would defeat Montana Senate President Jon Tester, D-Big Sandy, by a 50 to 26 percent margin, with 24 percent undecided. Burns tops Tester among men, 56 to 25 percent, and among women, 44 to 27 percent, with the rest undecided.

Tester, 48, is an organic grain farmer who announced his candidacy last week by driving his tractor-trailer to major cities across the state.

A third trial matchup pitted Burns against former Missoula Mayor and ex-House Speaker Daniel Kemmis, with Burns leading 53 to 23 percent, with the rest undecided. Kemmis, who had been considering the race, announced Thursday he wouldn't run for the Senate after all.

The poll did not include two other potential Democratic challengers, Clint Wilkes, 55, a political newcomer from Bozeman who said he is running, and former Helena Rep. Paul Richards, 50, a freelance writer and editor in Boulder.

No Democrats have yet declared a run against Rehberg, a Billings rancher and developer seeking his fourth term in the House.

The poll did set up a trial matchup that showed Rehberg defeating state Rep. Monica Lindeen, D-Huntley, a potential challenger, by a 58 to 24 percent margin, with 18 percent undecided. Rehberg leads among men by a 60 to 23 percent margin and among women by a 56 to 25 percent margin, with the rest undecided.

Lindeen, 43, is a business entrepreneur who with family members started and later sold what became Montana's largest Internet service provider.

One other potential Democratic U.S. House candidate surfaced this week after the poll was launched and too late to be included. That was Rep. Larry Jent, D-Bozeman, an attorney who lost a bid for the Democratic nomination for Congress in 1996.

The poll also asked voters whether they recognized the names of these people and, if so, whether it was favorably, unfavorably or neutrally.

Rehberg's name was the best known. Fifty-six percent of the voters recognized Rehberg's name favorably, while 21 percent did so unfavorably, with 19 percent neutral. Four percent didn't know him.

Burns' name was second with 45 percent favorable to 24 percent unfavorable, with 30 percent neutral and 1 percent not recognizing him.

Morrison's name received 22 percent favorable recognition to 7 percent unfavorable, with 40 percent neutral. Thirty-one percent of the voters didn't recognize his name.

Tester had a 14 percent favorable recognition and 4 percent unfavorable, with 21 percent neutral. Sixty-one percent of voters didn't recognize his name.

Kemmis had 8 percent favorable name recognition, 6 percent unfavorable, 17 percent neutral and 69 percent didn't recognize his name.

Lindeen's name drew favorable recognition from 9 percent, unfavorable from 6 percent, with 18 percent neutral. Sixty-seven percent didn't recognize her name.

Political campaigns and advertising, of course, are designed to build up candidates' name recognition with the voters. Most candidates start with little statewide recognition.

[minionofmidas]

Given that Morrison is unknown to 31% of the voters, that lead is definitely too close for comfort (not the others though.)
Montana's Senate President is an organic farmer? That's cool. Reminds me why I oppose losing it to the Midwest.

[nini2287]

Burns' numbers are a bit higher than I would have expected, but I think the race is lean Republican for now.  I see no reason why Rehberg would be in trouble, so he should be fine.

[Moooooo]

I saw this poll the other day.  Burns approval rating and head to head numbers are much higher than I expected.  But Im not totally sold, yet.  Tester and Morrison are virtually unknown by Montanans.

[Sam Spade]

I saw this poll the other day.  Burns approval rating and head to head numbers are much higher than I expected.  But Im not totally sold, yet.  Tester and Morrison are virtually unknown by Montanans.

I'm with you on this. 

However, though this is only one poll, it does come from the one polling company that I would trust for one poll singularly (if I had to).

Their polls concerning the Presidential election in 2004 were dead-on, as I remember.

[TheresNoMoney]

I'm surprised by how low Tester's name recognition is. As Senate President, I thought he would be more well known.

Anyway, I think these numbers will change a lot over the next year. The final matchup should be Burns vs. Tester.

[Alcon]

I'm surprised by how low Tester's name recognition is. As Senate President, I thought he would be more well known.

Not necessarily.  To be entirely honest, I have no idea who the Washington State Senate President is.

Anyway, I think these numbers will change a lot over the next year. The final matchup should be Burns vs. Tester.

If Burns was to lose, it was to be because of his low popularity. Not that his popularity does not appear to be totally low, I'm not quite sure. He's barely below 50%, or at it, or slightly above. An upset with a strong candidate, maybe, but otherwise? I have my doubts.

The final possibility is that Mason-Dixon screwed up. But, Scoonie, if you watched Mason-Dixon in 2004 (or before then, when it undeservedly was snubbed by the mainstream media) you'll know how likely that is.

[Sam Spade]

It's entirely possible the poll could be an outlier.  1 out of 20 rule. 

It's also entirely true that Mason-Dixon nailed Montana right on the money in 2004, predicting a 21% Bush victory and Bush won by 20% (20.5% actually)

Take that for what you will.  I just observe.

[Erc]

This poll could be exactly reflective of the situation in Montana...but it wouldn't matter one bit, would it.  What matters isn't the situation now, it's the situation next November.

That said, Burns has a fight ahead of him, but it's still a long-shot for the Democrats.

My prediction of one Republican gain in the Senate in 2006 holds.

[AuH2O]

It appears as if the polls agree with my conjecture.

Look, a lot of people in Montana know Burns isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer. He has chronic foot-in-mouth syndrome. BUT, it's more a laugh-about type thing than be-angry-about type thing.

At the end of the day, for Burns to lose, a bunch of Republicans have to want Burns out bad enough to screw their interests in Washington. That sentiment does not exist, as this poll ably demonstrates.

Maybe Burns will only win by 5%, but a win is a win.

My projection in the Senate right now is GOP +2, which I find very reasonable given the current landscape. Similar to the 2004 situation, Democrats are in worse shape than is generally perceived, because some continue to overestimate their ability to win in "red" states. The GOP happens to be sitting pretty in some blue territory by sheer luck (RI, NJ).

[No more McShame]

I'm surprised by how low Tester's name recognition is. As Senate President, I thought he would be more well known.

Anyway, I think these numbers will change a lot over the next year. The final matchup should be Burns vs. Tester.

Most Montanans don't eat, sh#$, and bleed this forum.  In fact the only "Montanan" here is a fake one .  I doubt most of my neighbors would know who Arizona's Senate President is.

[Sam Spade]

I actually screwed up here.

May 29, 2005, another article appeared in the Billings Gazette on this poll with job approval ratings for any number of politicians in the state.

The ratings I posted above were personal approval ratings.  Sorry about that. 

Anyway, here's those various ratings, plus the article.  If this poll is correct, Montana citizens seem to be a fairly satisfied group.
Montana politicians job approval numbers:
Gov. Schweitzer:  57% approve, 33% disapprove, 10% undecided
Rep. Denny Rehberg:  62% approve, 31% disapprove, 7% undecided
Sen. Conrad Burns: 59% approve, 39% disapprove, 2% undecided
Sen. Max Baucus: 58% approve, 41% disapprove, 1% undecided.
Amusingly lowest is:
Pres. George Bush: 53% approve, 47% disapprove
Governor, delegation get good job ratings

By CHARLES S. JOHNSON
Gazette State Bureau

HELENA - Montana voters like the job their top statewide elected officials are doing, awarding them high approval marks, a new Gazette State Poll found.

Voters surveyed gave a higher job-approval grade to Gov. Brian Schweitzer than they did to his two predecessors, Govs. Judy Martz and Marc Racicot, in the fifth month of their tenures, according to the polls done by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C.

Schweitzer, a Democrat who took office in January, received a positive job approval score of 57 percent, compared with Martz's 44 percent in May 2001 and Racicot's 47 percent in May 1993.

The three members of the state's congressional delegation received good marks within a few percentage points of one another.

U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg, a Republican, led the pack for the third time in about 2½ years with a job-approval score of 62 percent, followed by Sen. Conrad Burns, also a Republican, at 59 percent and Democratic Sen. Max Baucus at 58 percent. Rehberg and Burns are seeking re-election next year.

President George Bush received a positive job-approval score of 53 percent, his lowest score in the poll in his five years in office.

The poll, taken May 23-25, interviewed 625 registered voters who said they regularly vote in Montana elections. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The job performance questions ask voters surveyed how they would rate the performance of the officeholder: excellent, pretty good, only fair and poor. The first two categories are combined to yield the positive mark, while the latter two make up the negative score.

Schweitzer had a positive job approval score of 57 percent (9 percent rating his effort as "excellent" and 48 percent as "pretty good") and a negative score of 33 percent (26 percent as "only fair" and 7 percent as "poor"), with 10 percent undecided, the poll found. Schweitzer enjoyed higher grades from women, with 60 percent giving him a positive job approval score, compared with 54 percent from men.

Rehberg saw a 62 percent positive mark (16 percent "excellent" and 46 percent "pretty good"), and a 31 percent negative score (18 percent "only fair" and 13 percent "poor') with 7 percent undecided. Men gave Rehberg higher marks, a 66 percent positive mark, while women gave him a 58 percent positive mark.

Rehberg's job approval score started at 45 percent in May 2001 after a contentious 2000 victory for the House seat against Democrat Nancy Keenan in 2000. His score has climbed steadily until it peaked at 67 percent in December 2003. It's remained at 62 percent in December 2004 and in the current poll.

Burns had a 59 percent positive score (13 percent "excellent" and 46 percent "pretty good," and a negative tally of 39 percent (24 percent "only fair" and 15 percent "poor"), with 2 percent undecided. Men gave him a job approval score of 67 percent, compared with a 51 percent from women.

Burns has steadily climbed in the Gazette State Polls over the year after a rocky start. His nadir was May 1994 with a 33 percent positive score, which rose to 60 percent in December 1994 after his re-election. Burns' ratings have been mostly in the 50 percent range since May 1997, but fell to 44 percent in May 2001. They rose to 60 percent in December 2003 and 64 percent a year later before settling at 59 percent in this poll.

Baucus had a 58 percent positive score (14 percent "excellent" and 44 percent "pretty good") in the latest poll, with a 41 percent negative mark (29 percent "only fair" and 12 percent "poor") with 1 percent undecided. He received higher grades from women, with a 63 percent positive job approval score, compared with a 53 percent mark from men.

Baucus' poll ratings peaked at 67 percent in September 1990, when he was up for election, and hit a low of 39 percent in September 1994. He has been in the 50 percent range since 2000, reaching 59 percent in September 2002 and holding steady at 58 percent in December 2004 and in this poll.

Bush had a 53 percent positive score (20 percent "excellent" and 33 percent "pretty good"), and a 47 percent negative grade (17 percent "only fair" and 30 percent "poor").

Bush's Montana job approval ratings peaked at 84 percent in December 2001 after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. They remained mostly in the 60 percent range until dropping to 56 percent in December 2004 and 53 percent in this poll.

He won 59 percent of the Montana votes in 2004 after taking 58 percent here in 2000.

Link here.