Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)

[°Leprechaun]

NYT calls Vermont for Trump.

Sorry, Kasich

Vermont county results, anyone?

looks like Kasich has to join the Carson club.

[The Other Castro]

Remember, Alaska hasn't been polled since 1/5-1/12, and showed Trump leading Cruz 28% to 24%.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Cruz appears to have taken all 36 CDs, and is closing in on 50% in several. So far he is over 50% in only one, TX-10 which runs from Houston to Austin.

Note the above is based on the SOS website which doesn't have anything from Harris County yet, though Harris County has results reported.

Which states do we have CD results for at the moment?  Is either the AP or the state SoS sites giving congressional district results in Georgia, Tennessee, etc?

Trump appears to have won at least 8 of the 9 in Tennessee.  It was narrow in the 5th, but he did edge Rubio there.  The 9th is the only one to still see, since nearly half of Shelby County is still out, but he should win there as well.  It will be more interesting to see which ones Rubio came in second (1 delegate goes to 2nd place, unless 1st gets 67%) and which ones Cruz did.

CNN is has given a majority of the delegates in Tennessee to Trump now. My guess is that he'll have five or six of the eight required to put his name into nomination by the end of the night.

He has enough in Alabama after Rubio missed 20%.
He should get the extra delegate for a majority in Massachusetts because Carson didn't meet the 5% floor and if you add up all of the other candidates that are eligible, Trump > Rubio+Kasich+Cruz.
As long as Rubio stays below 20% Vermont, Trump could win that delegation 9-7 over Kasich.

Trump will probably get there in Georgia since he takes 3 for taking the state, will get about 40% of the statewide haul and probably 2 of 3 in most CD.

Cruz will get his first majority delegate state with Texas and will vacuum up more delegates in that state with Trump if Rubio stays below 20%. (which is looking more and more likely).

Here is my best guess for TN:

At-large (31):
84.8% of the vote went to delegate-eligible candidates:

Of that:
Trump- 46%- 14 Delegates+ 1 Rounding= 15
Cruz- 29.1%- 9 Delegates
Rubio- 24.9%- 7 Delegates

CD (27):
Trump- 18 (assuming he wins TN-09)
Cruz- 6
Rubio- 3 (Cruz/Rubio splits are approximate)

Total:
Trump- 33
Cruz- 15
Rubio- 10

[Blue3]

Kasich also campaigned in Alaska.

[yankeesfan]

Cruz is really closing the gap in Arkansas now.  About 20% is left and it's mostly urban/suburban.

CNN shows 100% in

[The Other Castro]

CNN: Huge massive turnout in Alaska, still counting the votes in Anchorage.

[Mr. Morden]

CNN says big turnout in Alaska.

[The Other Castro]

CNN says people liked Trump and Cruz.

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[°Leprechaun]

I would predict Alaska goes to Trump (maybe Cruz).

[cinyc]

KTUU-TV's story on Anchorage turnout (high), with some polling stations running out of ballots:
http://www.ktuu.com/news/news/large-voter-turnout-overwhelms-super-tuesday-polling-stations/38287112

[The Other Castro]

"Trump winning in first returns at 34% in first results from Alaska"

[cinyc]

KTVA's take on Anchorage and Mat-Su turnout:
http://www.ktva.com/long-lines-ballot-shortages-on-super-tuesday-in-alaska-305/

And the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner on Fairbanks turnout (Cruz and Trump winning their informal exit poll there):
http://www.newsminer.com/news/local_news/high-turnout-in-fairbanks-for-gop-presidential-poll/article_f5b91f2a-e01c-11e5-a0b9-83d944aa0d46.html

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Benton County, Arkansas went for Rubio.

LOL

[yankeesfan]

"Trump winning in first returns at 34% in first results from Alaska"

Trump 33
Cruz 31
Rubio 20

[cinyc]

"Trump winning in first returns at 34% in first results from Alaska"

Where is the photo from?  Looks like Carson won the Bethel bush House District.  I wonder where the rest of the results come from.

[The Other Castro]

The Midnight Sun twitter account.

[Alcon]

anchorage press ‏@anchoragepress  3m3 minutes ago
Trump leads in Alaska at 33.6% with five of 40 districts reporting. Rubio is in second with 20.2%.

Try again, Anchorage Press!

[The Other Castro]

Yeah I deleted it because it seemed off.

[The Other Castro]

Alaska GOP ‏@akgop  5m5 minutes ago
With 1459 reporting

Carson 146 - 10%
Cruz 436 - 29.9%
Kasich 109 - 7.5%
Rubio 269 - 18.4%
Trump 499 - 34.2%

[Alcon]

Yeah I deleted it because it seemed off.

I think it's right.  I just assume they also were looking at a crappy spreadsheet and missed Ted Cruz's number

[Matty]

is alaska proportiona?

[Mr. Morden]

So, regarding Texas: Looks like the remaining vote that hasn't come in yet is in the Dallas metro area, where Rubio is outperforming his statewide numbers.  But I assume that there's no way he's going to be able to catch up to 20% statewide to meet the delegate threshold?

Same with Alabama.  Rubio is just below the 20% threshold, but I guess there just aren't enough votes out still for him to reach 20%.

[The Other Castro]

With 1,573 reporting:

Carson 155 - 9.9%
Cruz 465 - 29.6%
Kasich 113 - 7.2%
Rubio 288 - 18.3%
Trump 552 - 35.1%

[Alcon]

It looks like a lot of the votes in are from the Chugach State Park area outside of Anchorage.  Nothing from urban areas yet.  Ben Carson has won a resounding 42% in the State House district including Bethel.