Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Cruz leads 6,777 to Trump's 6,222. 88% reporting.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Cruz leads 6,777 to Trump's 6,222. 88% reporting. That's a 3% lead for Cruz.

[cinyc]

Out in Alaska, per the NYT/AP Map: Wasilla HD-7 is all out, as is HD-9, which stretches from the eastern Mat-Su to greater Fairbanks and includes the oil port of Valdez, South Anchorage/Girdwood HD-28, Bush HD-37 (few votes there and it stretches to the Aleutians), and some scattered precincts in Mat-Su and rural HDs.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Yep, it's over. Nice staying up with everyone. See you next time!

[Reds4]

Love watching the results come in.. just about pulled an all nighter. Plenty more states to come soon

[cinyc]

AP calls Alaska for Cruz.

And now, Fox News.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Everything is in. Cruz wins by ~600 votes.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I'm wondering if the one Carson leaning house district was an error. Trump isn't among the top 4 candidates there, which seems odd.

[Tender Branson]

WTF happened in Colorado ?

It seems the Republicans had a 80.000 caucus turnout, but they released no popular vote numbers ?

[Mr. Morden]

WTF happened in Colorado ?

It seems the Republicans had a 80.000 caucus turnout, but they released no popular vote numbers ?

There is no popular vote there.  The caucusers pick delegates, but they don't hold a vote for president.

[Tender Branson]

WTF happened in Colorado ?

It seems the Republicans had a 80.000 caucus turnout, but they released no popular vote numbers ?

There is no popular vote there.  The caucusers pick delegates, but they don't hold a vote for president.

OK, so what was the delegate allocation for the candidates like ?

[Landslide Lyndon]

WTF happened in Colorado ?

It seems the Republicans had a 80.000 caucus turnout, but they released no popular vote numbers ?

There is no popular vote there.  The caucusers pick delegates, but they don't hold a vote for president.

So these delegates are technically uncommitted?

[Mr. Morden]

WTF happened in Colorado ?

It seems the Republicans had a 80.000 caucus turnout, but they released no popular vote numbers ?

There is no popular vote there.  The caucusers pick delegates, but they don't hold a vote for president.

So these delegates are technically uncommitted?

Erc explains the process here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4912583#msg4912583

The March 1 caucus just selects delegates for the next level up (the "County Assemblies and District Conventions").  We won't even know who those people support for another few weeks, at which point they can either select a presidential candidate to pledge to or go unbound.  Then on April 8/9, the delegates to the actual RNC will be selected, so I guess we'll know who got how many delegates at that point.  But even then, some of the delegates may be unbound.

[Landslide Lyndon]

WTF happened in Colorado ?

It seems the Republicans had a 80.000 caucus turnout, but they released no popular vote numbers ?

There is no popular vote there.  The caucusers pick delegates, but they don't hold a vote for president.

So these delegates are technically uncommitted?

Erc explains the process here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4912583#msg4912583

The March 1 caucus just selects delegates for the next level up (the "County Assemblies and District Conventions").  We won't even know who those people support for another few weeks, at which point they can either select a presidential candidate to pledge to or go unbound.  Then on April 8/9, the delegates to the actual RNC will be selected, so I guess we'll know who got how many delegates at that point.  But even then, some of the delegates may be unbound.

Can the state party stack the deck with anti-TRUMP delegates if they want?
I read somewhere that this process might be an ace up the sleeve for the establishment.

[Mr. Morden]

WTF happened in Colorado ?

It seems the Republicans had a 80.000 caucus turnout, but they released no popular vote numbers ?

There is no popular vote there.  The caucusers pick delegates, but they don't hold a vote for president.

So these delegates are technically uncommitted?

Erc explains the process here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4912583#msg4912583

The March 1 caucus just selects delegates for the next level up (the "County Assemblies and District Conventions").  We won't even know who those people support for another few weeks, at which point they can either select a presidential candidate to pledge to or go unbound.  Then on April 8/9, the delegates to the actual RNC will be selected, so I guess we'll know who got how many delegates at that point.  But even then, some of the delegates may be unbound.

Can the state party stack the deck with anti-TRUMP delegates if they want?
I read somewhere that this process might be an ace up the sleeve for the establishment.

I don't know.  Were there any limitations on who showed up for the initial round of caucuses today?  Or was it open to any registered Republican?  If any registered Republican could show up, then Trump's campaign or any other campaign would of course be free to try to stack the event with their own supporters.  But I'm not sure Trump's campaign is organized enough to be bothering with such things.  Seems like the sort of thing that Cruz would most likely be on top of.

[Mr. Morden]

What's the best source for the national popular vote?  Wikipedia has it as:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#Candidates_and_results

Trump 34%
Cruz 28%
Rubio 22%
Kasich 7%
Carson 6%

But I don't know if that's up to date or not.

[Mr. Morden]

And speaking of the popular vote, is this the first time in modern primary history that we've managed to get through 15 state contests without a single candidate getting more than 50% of the vote in any of those contests?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Based on Super Tuesday, it's clear that TRUMP's only shot at the nomination is that the GOP primaries will soon be mostly Winner Take All. If they remained proportional, we'd definitely be having a contested convention.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Based on Super Tuesday, it's clear that TRUMP's only shot at the nomination is that the GOP primaries will soon be mostly Winner Take All. If they remained proportional, we'd definitely be having a contested convention.

Imagine if there was some insane anti Trump conspiracy where all his opponents are on the ballot in the states that are proportional with a low threshold, fewer if there's a high threshold, and only 1 if it's winner take all (including variants like SC).

[Mr. Morden]

Based on Super Tuesday, it's clear that TRUMP's only shot at the nomination is that the GOP primaries will soon be mostly Winner Take All. If they remained proportional, we'd definitely be having a contested convention.

Imagine if there was some insane anti Trump conspiracy where all his opponents are on the ballot in the states that are proportional with a low threshold, fewer if there's a high threshold, and only 1 if it's winner take all (including variants like SC).

Ross Douthat actually suggested that Kasich endorse Rubio in Florida and Rubio endorse Kasich in Ohio, in order to make it harder for Trump to get a delegate majority.

[/]

Trump got trumped in AK.

[jimrtex]

These are updated. The effect is more mild, so there must have been mismatches between which counties had reported early voting, and which had voted election day voting:

Cruz 40.60% early, 46.12% election day, +5.52%
Trump 28.07%, 25.74%, -2.33%
Rubio 18.42%, 17.25%, -1.17%
Kasich 4.35%, 4.17%, -0.18%
Carson 3.56%, 4.59%, +1.03%
Bush 2.30%, 0.45%, -1.85%
Uncommitted 1.49%, -0.79%
Christie 0.17%, 0.08%, -0.09%
Fiorina 0.13%, 0.10%, -0.03%
Graham 0.06%, 0.06%, 0.00%
Gray 0.20%, 0.19%, -0.01%
Huckabee 0.25%, 0.19%, -0.06%
Paul 0.26%, 0.29%, +0.03%
Santorum 0.07%, 0.07%, -0.00%

I suspect that Cruz had done a better job of figuring out who was a Republican-leaning voter from past elections, and who had not voted early (who had voted early is publicly available on a daily basis). Cruz probably picked up a lot of voters who would have voted for Bush (Jeb's father, brother, and son have all been elected in Texas).

Carson and his supporters may be existing in a parallel universe. And his campaign has a larger list of individual voters than anyone else.

It was quite typical for Ron Paul and Libertarians to do better on election day than in early voting.

In congressional districts, Cruz received a majority in two districts, TX-1 in Northeast Texas (Gohmert's district) and TX-29, the Hispanic district in east and north Houston. Gene Green was being challenged by Adrian Garcia, former Harris County Sheriff (he resigned to run unsuccessfully for mayor of Houston). Some voters who might have crossed over to Trump, may have decided to vote in the Democratic congressional primary.

Rubio finished second in three districts. TX-7 is in western Harris County, and is wealthier and better educated. George HW Bush represented the district. TX-16 is in El Paso, and Pope Francis had celebrated mass before 200,000 persons in Juarez, just across the river. TX-32 is in Dallas and Collin County. Its representative is Pete Sessions, and some voters may have confused with the Sessions who had endorsed Trump. It is also wealthy and better educated. George W Bush lives in the district.

The SOS website is showing Rubio with a majority in TX-33, the Hispanic district in Tarrant and Dallas County, but this is due to a reporting error.

[pbrower2a]

I wonder if a significant amount of minorities would leave this country if TRUMP were elected.

Like the intelligent, creative, and educated?

I got a call from a Kasich volunteer asking for my support in the Michigan primary and I gave my choices on the 2016 Presidential election:

1. Sanders
2. Clinton
3. Kasich

4. SOME OTHER COUNTRY.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I was able to get the delegate results for Tennessee, and I am really excited to say that I have a couple friends and people I know that will be representing my party and my state this summer!

[Helsinkian]

Carso actually won a district in Alaska: State House District 38, where 17 votes were enough for him to win. http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ak/Rep