Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)
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Author Topic: Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)  (Read 97345 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #1075 on: March 02, 2016, 02:20:37 AM »
Quote from: mds32 on March 02, 2016, 02:19:16 AM
Quote from: marty on March 02, 2016, 02:15:18 AM
Quote from: Pandaguineapig on March 02, 2016, 02:14:08 AM
Quote from: Castro on March 02, 2016, 02:13:12 AM

I don't know if anyone predicted him to win three states, pretty good for him.
Trump had a good night but it wasn't the knockout punch everyone expected

it doesn't matter at this point. Trump is going to win the nomination.

I don't care. I want this to ride out as long as possible. I did not buy my Rubio sign so PA couldn't "matter."

You bought it so the sign could not matter, damn it!
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cinyc
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« Reply #1076 on: March 02, 2016, 02:21:30 AM »
Quote from: Castro on March 02, 2016, 02:17:29 AM
Midnight Sun ‏@Midnight_Sun_ak  2m2 minutes ago
If Mat-su doesn't come in huuuuuge for Trump he loses. #SuperTuesday #akvotes

Eagle River, which is arguably the Anchorage area most like Mat-Su, came in huge for Cruz - like 40-29 and 36-29 huge.  If that's a harbinger of what's to come from the Mat-Su, Cruz wins.

The other thing to look for is whether Rubio clears the 13% floor to get delegates.  As of right now, that looks likely to happen, too.
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Broken System
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« Reply #1077 on: March 02, 2016, 02:23:24 AM »
Cruz
34.4%
3720
(+142)

Trump
33.0%
3571
(+154)
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Matty
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« Reply #1078 on: March 02, 2016, 02:23:56 AM »
what's causing trump-surge?
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cinyc
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« Reply #1079 on: March 02, 2016, 02:24:11 AM »
Alaska GOP ‏@akgop  3m3 minutes ago
#AKVotes 10,337, incl. Ketch-Wrang
Carson 1,056 - 10.2%
Cruz 3,578 - 34.6%
Kasich 508 - 4.9%
Rubio 1,778 - 17.2%
Trump 3,417 - 33.1%
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Seriously?
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« Reply #1080 on: March 02, 2016, 02:24:17 AM »
Quote from: cinyc on March 02, 2016, 02:21:30 AM
Quote from: Castro on March 02, 2016, 02:17:29 AM
Midnight Sun ‏@Midnight_Sun_ak  2m2 minutes ago
If Mat-su doesn't come in huuuuuge for Trump he loses. #SuperTuesday #akvotes

Eagle River, which is arguably the Anchorage area most like Mat-Su, came in huge for Cruz - like 40-29 and 36-29 huge.  If that's a harbinger of what's to come from the Mat-Su, Cruz wins.

The other thing to look for is whether Rubio clears the 13% floor to get delegates.  As of right now, that looks likely to happen, too.
CNN already projected 10 delegates to Cruz, 10 to Trump and 4 to Rubio with 4 up for grabs.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #1081 on: March 02, 2016, 02:24:27 AM »
Donald had a good night because the field won't tighten but in a general election sense I think he showed he is a rather weak candidate. I can't see him winning VA in November, he is walking down a narrow path.

He also didn't really close that well, that KKK blunder hurt him.

I also thought his press conference was weird, not sure if he was expecting to announce some big endorsement that fell through or what happened but it fell flat to me. Then there was Christie behind him who looked like he wanted to go somewhere else and cry.
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cinyc
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« Reply #1082 on: March 02, 2016, 02:26:38 AM »

Ketchikan in the Southeast came in big for Trump.  Cruz came in third there.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #1083 on: March 02, 2016, 02:27:03 AM »

In AK? I'm not seeing one...
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Matty
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« Reply #1084 on: March 02, 2016, 02:27:07 AM »
Quote from: cinyc on March 02, 2016, 02:26:38 AM

Ketchikan in the Southeast came in big for Trump.

was that expected?
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cinyc
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« Reply #1085 on: March 02, 2016, 02:29:11 AM »
Quote from: marty on March 02, 2016, 02:27:07 AM
Quote from: cinyc on March 02, 2016, 02:26:38 AM

Ketchikan in the Southeast came in big for Trump.

was that expected?

Yes and no.  Rubio outperformed there relative to Cruz.  I'd expect Rubio to do well in the more liberal, pork-barrel Southeast.  Ketchikan would have been the home to the original bridge to nowhere if it ever got built.  I could also see populism being popular there.

What will determine the winner is how well Trump plays in the Mat-Su.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1086 on: March 02, 2016, 02:32:05 AM »
Is Wasilla in? (sorry, I have to)
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cinyc
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« Reply #1087 on: March 02, 2016, 02:33:19 AM »

No.  None of Mat-Su is in.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1088 on: March 02, 2016, 02:33:46 AM »
CNN thinks Mat-Su should go hard for Cruz.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1089 on: March 02, 2016, 02:34:46 AM »
Demographically, it does seem like it should be strong for Cruz, but then again I'm the idiot who thought Rubio would do well in Juneau.
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Matty
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« Reply #1090 on: March 02, 2016, 02:35:31 AM »
Quote from: Castro on March 02, 2016, 02:33:46 AM
CNN thinks Mat-Su should go hard for Cruz.
why are they saying that? Are there some leaks and/or folks in the know dropping hints?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1091 on: March 02, 2016, 02:36:05 AM »
Sigh, I really want to go to bed but I have $1000 locked up in PredictIt for Alaska.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #1092 on: March 02, 2016, 02:36:59 AM »
Quote from: cinyc on March 02, 2016, 02:29:11 AM
Quote from: marty on March 02, 2016, 02:27:07 AM
Quote from: cinyc on March 02, 2016, 02:26:38 AM

Ketchikan in the Southeast came in big for Trump.

was that expected?

Yes and no.  Rubio outperformed there relative to Cruz.  I'd expect Rubio to do well in the more liberal, pork-barrel Southeast.  Ketchikan would have been the home to the original bridge to nowhere if it ever got built.  I could also see populism being popular there.

What will determine the winner is how well Trump plays in the Mat-Su.

Isn't it basically an Anchorage suburb demographically?
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cinyc
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« Reply #1093 on: March 02, 2016, 02:37:08 AM »
Quote from: Grad Students are the Worst on March 02, 2016, 02:34:46 AM
Demographically, it does seem like it should be strong for Cruz, but then again I'm the idiot who thought Rubio would do well in Juneau.

Rubio did do relatively well in Juneau.  He broke above 20% in both HDs there.  He's only at 17% statewide.  Cruz won both Juneau HDs, though.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #1094 on: March 02, 2016, 02:38:13 AM »
Quote from: Castro on March 02, 2016, 02:36:05 AM
Sigh, I really want to go to bed but I have $1000 locked up in PredictIt for Alaska.

Lol, ditto. (Not quite as much, but enough that I'm not going to bed anytime soon.)
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #1095 on: March 02, 2016, 02:39:48 AM »
Quote from: Runeghost on March 02, 2016, 02:38:13 AM
Quote from: Castro on March 02, 2016, 02:36:05 AM
Sigh, I really want to go to bed but I have $1000 locked up in PredictIt for Alaska.

Lol, ditto. (Not quite as much, but enough that I'm not going to bed anytime soon.)

I could have sold at 83 but I'm greedy, now I'm paying the price.
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Matty
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« Reply #1096 on: March 02, 2016, 02:40:16 AM »
have results stalled?
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cinyc
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« Reply #1097 on: March 02, 2016, 02:40:21 AM »
Quote from: Runeghost on March 02, 2016, 02:36:59 AM
Quote from: cinyc on March 02, 2016, 02:29:11 AM
Quote from: marty on March 02, 2016, 02:27:07 AM
Quote from: cinyc on March 02, 2016, 02:26:38 AM

Ketchikan in the Southeast came in big for Trump.

was that expected?

Yes and no.  Rubio outperformed there relative to Cruz.  I'd expect Rubio to do well in the more liberal, pork-barrel Southeast.  Ketchikan would have been the home to the original bridge to nowhere if it ever got built.  I could also see populism being popular there.

What will determine the winner is how well Trump plays in the Mat-Su.

Isn't it basically an Anchorage suburb demographically?

I'd classify it more as an Anchorage exurb, as you have to drive through the military base to get there.  It's highly evangelical and somewhat libertarian, but also somewhat downscale.  There are arguments that either Trump or Cruz could win it.

The best argument for Cruz winning is how he cleaned up in the Eagle River HDs and is winning in the northern Kenai HD, which arguably has similar demographics.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #1098 on: March 02, 2016, 02:40:50 AM »
Quote from: Fargobison on March 02, 2016, 02:24:27 AM
Donald had a good night because the field won't tighten but in a general election sense I think he showed he is a rather weak candidate. I can't see him winning VA in November, he is walking down a narrow path.

He also didn't really close that well, that KKK blunder hurt him.

Yeah, it's kind of a glass half-full situation for The Trump. Looked at objectively, it was a darn good night for any candidate. But in context, he had the chance to "close the deal" and secure the nomination for all practical purposes, and he failed.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1099 on: March 02, 2016, 02:41:49 AM »
Quote from: Castro on March 02, 2016, 02:36:05 AM
Sigh, I really want to go to bed but I have $1000 locked up in PredictIt for Alaska.

Bad investment.
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