Who would win the Florida nominations for governor in 2018?

[Maxwell]

Putnam and Graham. Graham wins by 2 points.

If she runs for reelection in FL-02 this year, and loses, then that will be a setback for her.

Probably a setback in terms of margin, but I would think it would be hard to fault her losing in a 60%+ Romney district.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Putnam and Graham. Graham wins by 2 points.

If she runs for reelection in FL-02 this year, and loses, then that will be a setback for her.

Probably a setback in terms of margin, but I would think it would be hard to fault her losing in a 60%+ Romney district.

Yeah, but bare in mind that she's supposedly the new Patrick Murphy who can win in strong Republican districts. There has been a lot of hype around her.

[IceSpear]

Is Graham seriously going to try to win a 60% Romney district? She really should retire and not embarrass herself. We need her in 2018 after all.

[Dereich]

Is Graham seriously going to try to win a 60% Romney district? She really should retire and not embarrass herself. We need her in 2018 after all.

Announcing your retirement after spending just over one year in public office wouldn't be the most promising start to a future race. It'd be easy fodder for the GOP if she cynically abandoned her constituents the moment things looked difficult for her.

[IceSpear]

Is Graham seriously going to try to win a 60% Romney district? She really should retire and not embarrass herself. We need her in 2018 after all.

Announcing your retirement after spending just over one year in public office wouldn't be the most promising start to a future race. It'd be easy fodder for the GOP if she cynically abandoned her constituents the moment things looked difficult for her.

If the district is drastically altered, it wouldn't be "abandoning her constituents", because they never elected her in the first place. "Things looked difficult" in 2014, with her having to win a Republican district in a Republican wave year, and she succeeded when very few thought she would. But there's a difference between difficult and impossible.

Of course, I realize you want her to run and get stomped in the hopes that it will remove her as a threat. I'd be scared of her too if I was a Florida Republican.

[Dereich]

Is Graham seriously going to try to win a 60% Romney district? She really should retire and not embarrass herself. We need her in 2018 after all.

Announcing your retirement after spending just over one year in public office wouldn't be the most promising start to a future race. It'd be easy fodder for the GOP if she cynically abandoned her constituents the moment things looked difficult for her.

If the district is drastically altered, it wouldn't be "abandoning her constituents", because they never elected her in the first place. "Things looked difficult" in 2014, with her having to win a Republican district in a Republican wave year, and she succeeded when very few thought she would. But there's a difference between difficult and impossible.

Of course, I realize you want her to run and get stomped in the hopes that it will remove her as a threat. I'd be scared of her too if I was a Florida Republican.

Scared of her? Look back at old posts; I was an early supporter of her when I lived in her district. There's no danger with an ironclad GOP majority in the legislature and no role in redistricting by the Governor. Hell, I wouldn't mind a Democratic Governor right now. Someone needs to check the power of the incoming House GOP leadership (the REAL power in the state right now).

But what you're doing is making a CLASSIC Florida Democrat error. You're ignoring individual circumstances in favor of a general political principle that doesn't really apply in this case. This has been weighing on my mind for a while so I'll go through it:

Losing is not a big deal in Florida elections. Charlie Crist, Jeb Bush, and Bill McCollum all lost offices several times without causing serious problems in their future campaigns. All won office in the last two decades after first losing a few elections. That's only with Republicans; Democrats naturally have fewer winners in such a heavy GOP state and won't be expecting proven winners. Dropping out would avoid a loss for Gwen, but I don't think this would be a plus for her.

HOWEVER, it could absolutely be a minus. What are Grahams strengths? Look at how she campaigned:

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That's good! Campaigning as an honest, local, and moderate person is the tried and true path to victory for Democrats in this state. It's the path that has put and kept Bill Nelson, Patrick Murphy, and Gwen Graham in office. Deviate from the path like Crist did and you lose, even against Rick Scott. Look at 2010: the most successful attacks against Alex Sink were the ones that painted her as a cheater and a shady character. Some of the most successful accusations that year against Crist were that he was a self-interested liar only interested in being on a presidential ticket.

So what does dropping out do to Gwen Graham? It makes it super easy for the very very effective GOP machine to paint her as a self-interested, cynical politician who was lying through her teeth about caring for her constituents. It makes her look like someone just trying to climb the ladder, ready to abandon Floridians the moment it's convenient for her. It makes her look like a regular scummy politician and if she's just another politician you might as well vote for the GOP guy like normal. I'm sure they'll try to do that anyway if she runs, but just walking right into an easy trap for no reason is EXACTLY the sort of thing the state Dems do ALL THE TIME that keeps them in a permanent minority.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here's a recent article on Graham. Apparently she's waiting out an appeals court decision on the new congressional lines and may elect to run statewide (in 2016). (Florida's filing deadline is May 6)

http://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/2016/04/05/gwen-graham-considering-options/82667166/

[BuckeyeNut]

Statewide in '16? That doesn't seem to exist.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Why isn't Bondi one of the choices?

[Heisenberg]

Statewide in '16? That doesn't seem to exist.

It does, there's a Senate race, and the deadline to file is not until sometime in June.

[TDAS04]

I'll guess Putnam and Graham.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I'll guess Putnam and Graham.

I still don't see Graham running. If she survives Mary Thomas/Neal Dunn/Ken Sukhia this year, then yes, she will definitely run, but I just think the district is against her. She's definitely a skilled campaigner, but not as skilled as Patrick Murphy.

[RogueBeaver]

Graham is seriously considering a bid and will retire from Congress.