Brian Schweitzer vs. Rudy Giuliani

[FerrisBueller86]

Let's see some maps.

[Cashcow]

Option 4

[Moooooo]

I posted this one before...

Schweitzer/Schweitzer

[FerrisBueller86]

The governor of Montana beats the former mayor of New York City with 538 electoral votes:


In other words, Giuliani gets ZERO electoral votes.

Giuliani damaged himself when he blamed the troops for the 380 tons of stolen explosives.  This is one reason he could only get the nomination if all the other Republicans running get abducted by aliens.  This remark would damage him among all constituencies, liberal and conservative, Democratic and Republican alike.

Giuliani is too liberal for the ultra-conservatives.  So that means he won't even win Utah, Mississippi, Alabama, or South Carolina, states that an ultra-conservative Republican would have in the bag.

Guiliani is pro-gun control while Schweitzer clearly shows he knows guns in his campaign.  So Schweitzer holds onto Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.  He wins the interior West and all of the Great Plains states, which a Republican would normally have in the bag.

Schweitzer has charisma, can relate to people better, and has the rural appeal that Kerry and Giuliani lack.  He keeps all the Kerry and Gore states AND wins all of the remaining states.  Remember: his opponent was made in New York City!  New York City?

[Alcon]

Temporarily ignoring HamRadioRocks'...uh, unique map:



Something like that, I suppose. Giuliani 286, Schweitzer 252.

However, it should be noted that I think there would be an insane number of toss-ups, something like:



So it really could go any way.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Schweitzer'd take Ohio and Pennsylvania and would likely win NJ, at least if he won CT.

[bgwah]

460-78 schweitzer

Giuliani would do better in the NYC area, but still lose NY and NJ.

He loses a huge chunk of the moral vote, much of which wasn't even voting anyway.

The South votes for a moderate non-Kerry state Democrat over a pro-gay rights, pro-abortion rights, divorced mayor of New York City.

Schweizter does much better in the interior west, winning several states.

[No more McShame]

Dem: Schweitzer/Biden 294 EV 42% PV
Rep: Giuliani/Allen 173 31%
Const: Moore/Falwell 71 21%
Green: Kucinich/Camejo 0 5%

Don't think the extremists on both sides would sit this one out.  I could see a strong "religious" candidate pulling some EVs in this scenario.  Green party could poll well but not gain any EV, but certainly costing the Dems some states in the Northeast.

[Moooooo]

Dem: Schweitzer/Biden 294 EV 42% PV
Rep: Giuliani/Allen 173 31%
Const: Moore/Falwell 71 21%
Green: Kucinich/Camejo 0 5%

Don't think the extremists on both sides would sit this one out.  I could see a strong "religious" candidate pulling some EVs in this scenario.  Green party could poll well but not gain any EV, but certainly costing the Dems some states in the Northeast.

That race would be a lot of fun to watch.  Especially if all candidates were allowed to debate.

[Alcon]

And I thought my map was adventerous!

[TheresNoMoney]

Can't wait for a future Schweitzer run! It won't happen in 2008 but it will happen in 2012 or 2016.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Kucinich would never run as a Green. He's a party loyalist.

And Schweitzer would win Minnesota. Somehow I don't see the union workers and populist farmers choosing Giuliani over Schweitzer.

[Erc]

This is a race that could go either way and would see a rather big realignment in the states.

[jokerman]

[Ben Meyers]

Montana, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado would all definitely turn Dem.  South Dakota, Idaho, Wyoming, and North Dakota might as well.  However, lots of the traditional Dem areas in the Northeast might turn Republican.  NH, Maine, NJ, Delaware and Connecticut would go for Giuliani.  Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Vermont, and even New York might as well.

I'd call it for Schweitzer, but I agree that the extreme right and extreme left would field their own candidates.

It would be for Schweitzer, about 48% to 43%, with a large chunk of voters going to third party candidates, especially the far-right candidate.

[No more McShame]

Kucinich would never run as a Green. He's a party loyalist.

And Schweitzer would win Minnesota. Somehow I don't see the union workers and populist farmers choosing Giuliani over Schweitzer.

You're probably right on both points.  I'm banking on strong Giuliani support in the burbs and the Green candidate taking college and Minneapolis votes away from Schweitzer.  It's fun to look at though

[Democratic Hawk]

Why on earth would any one vote for Giuliani? He's delusional as he proved likening Bush to Churchill at the RNC

I'd merrily through my weight behind Schweitzer

Dave

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Schweitzer would do pretty well with the left vote. If a Roy Moore right-wing candidate ran, Schweitzer would win a lot of states.

[PBrunsel]

Brian Schweitzer/Phil Bredesen: 272 Electoral Votes

Rudy Giuliani/George Allen: 266 Electoral Votes

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

ME-1 is safe Democrat. No Republican could win it even if they won statewide except in a major landslide. I really doubt Schweitzer would lose ME-2 either, which is much more in tune with his politics. Obviously this would equal to winning Maine altogetehr.

[Keystone Phil]

Brian Schweitzer/Phil Bredesen: 272 Electoral Votes

Rudy Giuliani/George Allen: 266 Electoral Votes

Giuliani wouldn't take PA. He'd wrap up some of the more moderate to liberal Republicans in SE PA and take even a few Specter Dems, too. However, conservative Dems would west would go crazy for someone like Schweitzer and many conservative Republicans (especially in the "T" part of the state) would either a) vote Schweitzer or b) stay home.

[Democratic Hawk]

Brian Schweitzer/Phil Bredesen: 272 Electoral Votes

Rudy Giuliani/George Allen: 266 Electoral Votes

Giuliani wouldn't take PA. He'd wrap up some of the more moderate to liberal Republicans in SE PA and take even a few Specter Dems, too. However, conservative Dems would west would go crazy for someone like Schweitzer and many conservative Republicans (especially in the "T" part of the state) would either a) vote Schweitzer or b) stay home.

By that score, if Schweitzer were to win PA, wouldn't Ohio go with him too?

Dave

[Keystone Phil]

Brian Schweitzer/Phil Bredesen: 272 Electoral Votes

Rudy Giuliani/George Allen: 266 Electoral Votes

Giuliani wouldn't take PA. He'd wrap up some of the more moderate to liberal Republicans in SE PA and take even a few Specter Dems, too. However, conservative Dems would west would go crazy for someone like Schweitzer and many conservative Republicans (especially in the "T" part of the state) would either a) vote Schweitzer or b) stay home.

By that score, if Schweitzer were to win PA, wouldn't Ohio go with him too?

Dave

Yes, probably. I just didn't feel like commenting on the rest of the map.