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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  Alaska?
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Author Topic: Alaska?  (Read 3340 times)
LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #25 on: June 07, 2016, 06:04:36 am »

Think it could flip with Trump as the head of the GOP ticket?

Maybe if Palin campaigns for him...
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #26 on: June 10, 2016, 09:53:11 pm »

Begich was Part of a dynasty and benefited from the later debunked falsehoods of corruption spewed against Ted Stevens.A massive injustice was done to senator stevens by the media and his opponents.
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A Brave Old Fuzzy Bear for a Brave New Atlas
Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #27 on: June 12, 2016, 09:41:19 pm »

While Nixon wasted precious time with trips to HI/AK in 1960, JFK and Co. went hardcore at NY, PA, TX, MO IL and MI over and over and over.  And, we know what the result was.

Even in 2004, when polls showed that HI may actually be halfway competitive, Bush's team made the mistake of sending people out there.  For four EVs, it wasn't worth it.  '04 was going to be won/lost with the same states that won/lost 2000, adding OH obviously to that mix.

In '16, the Democrats won't win/lose because of AK's three EVs. They will win/lose from the same states that have defined the road to 270 over the last few cycles. 

The American electorate was much more elastic in 1960 than it is today.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #28 on: June 12, 2016, 09:47:29 pm »

Begich was Part of a dynasty and benefited from the later debunked falsehoods of corruption spewed against Ted Stevens.A massive injustice was done to senator stevens by the media and his opponents.
Which is why conservative idol Dan Sullivan barely beat him in a wave year.

/s
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Georgia Swing
mollybecky
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« Reply #29 on: June 17, 2016, 02:31:33 pm »

Spending some time, money, and effort would be very helpful to the Democrats in the long run.  Eventually flipping two Senate seats in small states such as Alaska would pay big dividends.
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #30 on: June 17, 2016, 02:46:02 pm »

Rural Alaska is still too conservative to be competitive in midterm years, but the senate seats may be worth it.
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #31 on: June 17, 2016, 03:03:05 pm »

Rural Alaska is still too conservative to be competitive in midterm years, but the senate seats may be worth it.

Isn't rural Alaska heavily Democratic?

Northern (and to a lesser extent Western) Alaska isn't.
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cinyc
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« Reply #32 on: June 17, 2016, 03:22:51 pm »

Rural Alaska is still too conservative to be competitive in midterm years, but the senate seats may be worth it.

Isn't rural Alaska heavily Democratic?

Northern (and to a lesser extent Western) Alaska isn't.

The heavily Republican parts of Alaska are exurban or railbelt quasi-rural - Mat-Su Borough north of Anchorage, and Kenai Peninsula Borough to its south (but the bulk of its population is far from Anchorage).  Bush Alaska off the railbelt tends to vote Democratic, and has been trending away from Republicans.  North Slope Borough might be one of the relatively more Republican areas of the Bush, but it still generally votes for Democrats.  And, compared to the rest of the state, very few people live there, anyway.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #33 on: June 17, 2016, 03:46:03 pm »

Yeah, I was under the impression that AK was like MN in that its rural areas voted well to the left of its suburban ones.
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cinyc
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« Reply #34 on: June 17, 2016, 06:54:29 pm »

Yeah, I was under the impression that AK was like MN in that its rural areas voted well to the left of its suburban ones.

It depends on which rural areas you are referring to.  The off-the-railbelt bush of largely Eskimo towns accessible only by air generally votes Democratic.  Ruralish areas on the road system, like the Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, are more Republican.  Most people in those ruralish areas are whites who live in small towns like Delta Junction.
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