WI - Marquette University: Sanders +1, Trump +10 (user search)
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  WI - Marquette University: Sanders +1, Trump +10 (search mode)
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Author Topic: WI - Marquette University: Sanders +1, Trump +10  (Read 1432 times)
Wiz in Wis
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« on: February 25, 2016, 01:47:05 PM »

Obama beat Hillary in Wisconsin 58-41. He carried every CD, and Carried the 2nd and 4th by over 60%. No way in this scenario does Sanders win CD4 (MKE) and probably loses CD1, potentially only has a clear advantage in CD2.

Obama dominated in Madison and Milwaukee... this time, they will split.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2016, 02:03:35 PM »


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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2016, 02:10:15 PM »

This might give us an indication of how Minnesota will go down.  Unfortunately, caucuses are stupid.

I have a feeling MN likes Bernie more than WI. Plus, not only is it a caucus, it's completely open. I fully expect him to dominate there.

Isn't Iowa an open caucus? Also, while it's not exactly huge, Minnesota has a black population larger than Iowa, and it's also much more urban... I'm not saying Sanders will lose, but he probably won't win 66-33 like Obama did. He almost certainly won't get 70% in Hennepin County.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2016, 03:05:17 PM »


The way Sanders makes up for his favorability and crushes in the national polls is because he does far better than Clinton with Republicans and independents. Kasich has the highest net favorability of any Republican amongst Democrats at -4.

This is why those head to head polls are useless... the GOP has had 30 years to convince themselves that Hillary is bad... None of them know Sanders, but believe me, they won't like him any more than her when they're through with him. We have a sense of where her floor is... we don't know where his is. It could be a few points better, or 10 points worse.
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