BWI - Trump+4 in Ohio, Sanders +1 in Ohio (user search)
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  BWI - Trump+4 in Ohio, Sanders +1 in Ohio (search mode)
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Author Topic: BWI - Trump+4 in Ohio, Sanders +1 in Ohio  (Read 3773 times)
psychprofessor
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Posts: 1,293


« on: February 24, 2016, 10:21:57 AM »

This is weird criteria:

The BW-CRI study was conducted during the period of February 11-20, 2016 among 825 likely Ohio voters using online panel data with quotas in place for gender, age, and region (i.e., Northeast, Northwest, Central, Southeast, and Southwest Ohio). To qualify as a likely Ohio voter, respondents had to meet three criteria: (1) they were "absolutely certain" they were registered to vote; (2) they had given "quite a lot" or "a moderate amount" of thought to the upcoming presidential election; and (3) and they had either voted in the 2012 U.S. presidential election or were not eligible to vote.
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psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2016, 03:52:16 PM »

This is weird criteria:

The BW-CRI study was conducted during the period of February 11-20, 2016 among 825 likely Ohio voters using online panel data with quotas in place for gender, age, and region (i.e., Northeast, Northwest, Central, Southeast, and Southwest Ohio). To qualify as a likely Ohio voter, respondents had to meet three criteria: (1) they were "absolutely certain" they were registered to vote; (2) they had given "quite a lot" or "a moderate amount" of thought to the upcoming presidential election; and (3) and they had either voted in the 2012 U.S. presidential election or were not eligible to vote.

One can argue if an online panel can really compare to a traditional poll, but the biggest methodological problem I see is the use of quotas rather than weighting to ensure a demographically representative sample. I feel like that could potentially skew the sample a great deal but I don't even know if it's been tried before

I thought what was hinky was no stratification for race - which is the big gap between Sanders and Clinton and the strict screening of having to have voted in 2012. This is the DEM result that I would expect for whites, not the overall population.
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