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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  BWI - Trump+4 in Ohio, Sanders +1 in Ohio
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Author Topic: BWI - Trump+4 in Ohio, Sanders +1 in Ohio  (Read 3501 times)
AOC Stan
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« on: February 24, 2016, 10:13:59 am »

http://www.bw.edu/news/2016/cri-ohio-primary-election-poll

GOP:
Trump-33
Kasich-29
Cruz-11
Rubio-10
Carson-8

DEM:
Sanders-45
Clinton-44
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2016, 10:17:02 am »

Interesting...
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2016, 10:17:22 am »

Sanders beats Clinton,  dont buy it.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2016, 10:18:38 am »

This isn't something I'd ever thought I'd say but I think I'm going with the Quinnipiac poll.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2016, 10:20:48 am »

QU has been hard on Clinton, in most polls lately. BUT, she is tied with Trump, thats good enough for me.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2016, 10:21:28 am »

BOI GTFO KASICH YOU GOT ME F[inks] UP
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2016, 10:21:57 am »

This is weird criteria:

The BW-CRI study was conducted during the period of February 11-20, 2016 among 825 likely Ohio voters using online panel data with quotas in place for gender, age, and region (i.e., Northeast, Northwest, Central, Southeast, and Southwest Ohio). To qualify as a likely Ohio voter, respondents had to meet three criteria: (1) they were "absolutely certain" they were registered to vote; (2) they had given "quite a lot" or "a moderate amount" of thought to the upcoming presidential election; and (3) and they had either voted in the 2012 U.S. presidential election or were not eligible to vote.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2016, 10:22:22 am »

Hmmm I'll wait for other polls to confirm. Just drop out Kasich!!
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AOC Stan
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« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2016, 10:23:01 am »

Doing better than Rubio is in his home state, last I checked.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2016, 10:24:01 am »

Have the never polled a race before? I cant seem to find any prior polling done by them.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2016, 10:26:04 am »
« Edited: February 24, 2016, 10:27:56 am by EliteLX »

This isn't something I'd ever thought I'd say but I think I'm going with the Quinnipiac poll.

Not commenting on the accuracy or results of either of the polls, but this is an exact example of the "let's ride whatever affirms my beliefs and dog the opposing result as a pollster" nonsense that runs around here.

With respect, your preference or beliefs don't make a pollster, whether it be PPP or Bob Jones University polling team, accurate or not. With that being said, I don't think Sanders is leading in Ohio as of now. I'm just feeding food for thought.
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A Perez
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« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2016, 10:26:22 am »

Outlier.  

Quinnipiac had Clinton up by 15% and nobody knows this pollster. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/oh/oh02232016_Osm46vb.pdf
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AOC Stan
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« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2016, 10:27:15 am »

Have the never polled a race before? I cant seem to find any prior polling done by them.
Not sure, but if it helps they hold a lot of political events, for example Sanders has a rally here tomorrow.
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2016, 10:36:41 am »

Great poll!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: February 24, 2016, 10:41:48 am »

Have the never polled a race before? I cant seem to find any prior polling done by them.
Not sure, but if it helps they hold a lot of political events, for example Sanders has a rally here tomorrow.

So this is something like a Sanders internal?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #15 on: February 24, 2016, 11:01:13 am »


Glad the Clinton folks suddenly love Quinnipiac.
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PeteB
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« Reply #16 on: February 24, 2016, 11:07:16 am »
« Edited: February 24, 2016, 11:09:56 am by PeteB »


For the record, the gap in the poll is +2%, not +4%  (Q25 in the poll data below):
Trump-31
Kasich-29
Cruz-11
Rubio-10
Carson-8
Don't know 8%

Essentially Trump and Kasich are tied in OH, in statistical error territory!

Also, according to this poll, Kasich handily beats both Clinton and Sanders in OH while Trump beats Clinton barely but loses to Sanders (Q16-19)!

http://www.bw.edu/Assets/stories/2016/ToplineReport_Ohio%20Election%20Poll_Feb24-FINALx.pdf
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Holmes
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« Reply #17 on: February 24, 2016, 11:09:37 am »

I'll stick with Quinnipiac.
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PeteB
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« Reply #18 on: February 24, 2016, 11:13:45 am »


Both polls essentially show a tight Trump-Kasich race in OH.  The QU poll however has Cruz at 21% - not sure that it makes much sense, but we will see.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: February 24, 2016, 11:35:32 am »

You have to wonder how many of these people want to risk losing their home states to Trump before they drop out.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #20 on: February 24, 2016, 01:49:40 pm »

This is weird criteria:

The BW-CRI study was conducted during the period of February 11-20, 2016 among 825 likely Ohio voters using online panel data with quotas in place for gender, age, and region (i.e., Northeast, Northwest, Central, Southeast, and Southwest Ohio). To qualify as a likely Ohio voter, respondents had to meet three criteria: (1) they were "absolutely certain" they were registered to vote; (2) they had given "quite a lot" or "a moderate amount" of thought to the upcoming presidential election; and (3) and they had either voted in the 2012 U.S. presidential election or were not eligible to vote.

One can argue if an online panel can really compare to a traditional poll, but the biggest methodological problem I see is the use of quotas rather than weighting to ensure a demographically representative sample. I feel like that could potentially skew the sample a great deal but I don't even know if it's been tried before
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #21 on: February 24, 2016, 03:52:16 pm »

This is weird criteria:

The BW-CRI study was conducted during the period of February 11-20, 2016 among 825 likely Ohio voters using online panel data with quotas in place for gender, age, and region (i.e., Northeast, Northwest, Central, Southeast, and Southwest Ohio). To qualify as a likely Ohio voter, respondents had to meet three criteria: (1) they were "absolutely certain" they were registered to vote; (2) they had given "quite a lot" or "a moderate amount" of thought to the upcoming presidential election; and (3) and they had either voted in the 2012 U.S. presidential election or were not eligible to vote.

One can argue if an online panel can really compare to a traditional poll, but the biggest methodological problem I see is the use of quotas rather than weighting to ensure a demographically representative sample. I feel like that could potentially skew the sample a great deal but I don't even know if it's been tried before

I thought what was hinky was no stratification for race - which is the big gap between Sanders and Clinton and the strict screening of having to have voted in 2012. This is the DEM result that I would expect for whites, not the overall population.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: February 24, 2016, 03:56:08 pm »

If Kasich cannot win the Ohio primary, he cannot win the Republican nomination. It is that simple. He will do better in Ohio than in any other state.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #23 on: February 24, 2016, 06:14:24 pm »


Glad the Clinton folks suddenly love Quinnipiac.

No, it's more that QU has had a pro-Bernie lean in its samples, almost from the beginning. And they have Hillary up 15%, then this is almost certainly trash.
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