OH-Quinnipiac: D: Clinton 55% Sanders 40%; R: Trump 31% Kasich 26% Cruz 21%

[PeteB]

Interesting that Kasich is trailing Trump, although it is close at 5 points. But if you look at the last Oh QU poll, in October, Trump was leading Kasich with 10 points. Since then Trump has grown by only 8 points and Kasich has increased by 13 points! It would be interesting to compare this with Trump-Rubio, in a new FL poll (the last one from January had Trump at 41% and Rubio at 18% - Bush had only 4%).

[PeteB]

Imagine if Trump won every single one of his opponents' home states.

Based on polling alone, he is losing in TX to Cruz and, I may be wrong, but I do not think that a mere 5% advantage will be enough to overcome Kasich's strong ground game in OH.  FL is the only "home" state he seems to be running ahead of his opponent.

[PeteB]

Even with Kasich out, Rubio couldn't win OH. However it won't matter after March 15th as Rubio will be out and this will be a Trump-Kasich race!

[PeteB]

And thus Kasich needs to stay in the race through Ohio. And I suspect that is why he is staying in. He is doing it for the Pub establishment team. Bless him.

I question that logic, Torie. As much as i back Kasich, if the goal is to stop Trump then which would the Donald be more concerned about facing here: Kasich who is already behind and will have difficulty maintaining even that level of support after what will likely be a lackluster showing Tuesday (maybe distant 2nd in a couple states at best) plus will have Rubio siphoning the establishment anti-Trump vote; or Rubio if Kasich dropped out and gave his complete public and organizational support to Rubio (in exchange for the Veep slot or at least a cushy cabinet post)?

If the establishment isn't careful , Kasich could wind up giving Trump Ohio rather than saving it from him.

More and more we are seeing this is not a real thing. If Kasich drops out a lot of his voters either won't vote, or even go to Trump. At least enough to block Rubio.

Where do you get that impression, especially among his supporters in Ohio ?

I get that impression from the polls. Most polls show Kasich supporters going to Rubio, sure, but only by margins like 57/26, not the kind of margins Rubio needs.

But let's assume this much - 70% goes to Rubio, 15% to Trump, 10% to Cruz, and 5% Just don't vote. And I'm generous to Rubio and Kasich - I assume 50% of undecideds would go to Kasich, and then if Kasich drops out, whatever margin of rounding for the 5% that don't vote go with Rubio. Rubio still trails Trump 36-34. That is a generous estimate. If it's 60% Rubio, 23% Trump, 12% Cruz, and  5% don't vote, it gets a lot worse - 38%-31%. And again, I'm giving the advantages to Rubio - he gets the rounding error.

The math is just not going to work.

i see your point, and certainly did 't mean Rubio would be anything close to a lock, or even necessarily competative here if Kasich drops out. the question is whether trump has more of a threat from Kasich with Rubio on the ballot as opposed to Rubio alon e with Kasich's support?

Well, are you assuming the Kasich numbers in the poll will erode? If he can hang on to what he has, and the bulk of the 13% of Rubio voters have any sense at all, they would shift their votes to Kasich to get him past Trump. If need be, Rubio would publicly suggest that to his voters in Ohio, given it is winner take all, and out of his respect for Kasich in his home state, or whatever. They play nice with each other anyway.

Kasich's numbers are unlikely to grow in the coming weeks, and he'll be lucky if they don't erode some as it becomes increasingly clear he (sadly) can't win the nom. I just don't see the "subtle hint" and "strategic voting" paths having much impact. Those 13% Rubio voters tend to already have more negative issues with supporting Kasich rather than Kasich supporters having issues with Rubio (at least in Ohio). Thus there's a greater share of Kasich voters willing to transfer their support to Rubio than vice-versa.

I would take a contrarian view. Kasich has managed expectations well and nobody expects him to do particularly well on ST. Even a decent 2nd or 3rd place finish in one or more of VT, MA, VA or TN would be a "win" and would not result in him losing points. This is particularly true if neither Rubio nor Cruz have a very good ST.

He then has to be at least 2nd in MI and win OH and it will be a Trump-Kasich race.