OH-Quinnipiac: D: Clinton 55% Sanders 40%; R: Trump 31% Kasich 26% Cruz 21%
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  OH-Quinnipiac: D: Clinton 55% Sanders 40%; R: Trump 31% Kasich 26% Cruz 21%
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Author Topic: OH-Quinnipiac: D: Clinton 55% Sanders 40%; R: Trump 31% Kasich 26% Cruz 21%  (Read 2929 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: February 23, 2016, 06:01:43 AM »
« edited: February 23, 2016, 06:10:39 AM by Mr. Morden »

Quinnipiac poll of Ohio, conducted Feb. 16-20:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2325

Dems

Clinton 55%
Sanders 40%

GOP

Trump 31%
Kasich 26%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 13%
Carson 5%

[Poll mostly taken pre-Bush dropout, and they reallocated Bush voters to their second choices.]
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Lord of the Dome
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« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2016, 06:04:17 AM »

Wherefore art thou Rubio

13%? Yeesh
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: February 23, 2016, 06:11:52 AM »

Racial gap on the Dem. side:

whites:
Clinton 50%
Sanders 45%

blacks:
Clinton 71%
Sanders 26%

On the GOP side, who leads among…?
Tea Party: Trump
White born-again Evangelical: Cruz
very conservative: Cruz
somewhat conservative: Trump
moderate: Trump
college degree: Kasich
no college degree: Trump
age 18-44: Cruz
age 45-64: Trump
age 65+: Kasich

Are there any candidates you would definitely *not* support?

Trump 32%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 12%
Carson 11%
Kasich 11%

fav/unfav % among their own party:

Sanders 77/11% for +66%
Clinton 77/17% for +60%

Kasich 77/14% for +63%
Rubio 62/17% for +45%
Cruz 60/27% for +33%
Trump 57/36% for +21%
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #3 on: February 23, 2016, 06:25:26 AM »

13% in the land of Kasich, Portman, Voinovich, DeWine etc...
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2016, 06:39:35 AM »

March 15th is not looking good for Bernie. At all.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2016, 06:55:12 AM »

March 15th is not looking good for Bernie. At all.

And this is QU too...

But seriously, that AA number is being repeated everywhere and its KILLING Sanders.
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mds32
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« Reply #6 on: February 23, 2016, 07:08:11 AM »


That is reasonable considering it is Ohio and the guy that could cost him the race is the Governor of the state.
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PeteB
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« Reply #7 on: February 23, 2016, 08:40:07 AM »

Interesting that Kasich is trailing Trump, although it is close at 5 points. But if you look at the last Oh QU poll, in October, Trump was leading Kasich with 10 points. Since then Trump has grown by only 8 points and Kasich has increased by 13 points! It would be interesting to compare this with Trump-Rubio, in a new FL poll (the last one from January had Trump at 41% and Rubio at 18% - Bush had only 4%).
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #8 on: February 23, 2016, 09:03:24 AM »

this really makes Michigan look out of reach, too, for Sanders. Where does he win on 3/15? That could be a fatal blow to the campaign.
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Skye
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« Reply #9 on: February 23, 2016, 09:34:28 AM »

Never mind that, Kasich is losing his home state, where he's supposed to be popular.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2016, 10:14:38 AM »
« Edited: February 23, 2016, 10:21:15 AM by Ronnie »

It would be interesting to compare this with Trump-Rubio, in a new FL poll (the last one from January had Trump at 41% and Rubio at 18% - Bush had only 4%).

If Trump is beating an immensely popular two-term governor, he's probably smoking a first-term senator who doesn't even show up to work.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #11 on: February 23, 2016, 10:59:11 AM »

this really makes Michigan look out of reach, too, for Sanders. Where does he win on 3/15? That could be a fatal blow to the campaign.

As I've said before, Sanders's path to the nomination goes through Missouri.
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Holmes
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« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2016, 11:16:27 AM »

this really makes Michigan look out of reach, too, for Sanders. Where does he win on 3/15? That could be a fatal blow to the campaign.

As I've said before, Sanders's path to the nomination goes through Missouri.

Missouri? Guy has no chance then.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #13 on: February 23, 2016, 11:43:28 AM »

this really makes Michigan look out of reach, too, for Sanders. Where does he win on 3/15? That could be a fatal blow to the campaign.

As I've said before, Sanders's path to the nomination goes through Missouri.

Missouri? Guy has no chance then.

Well then on 3/15 the race will be over. In 2008 the white / non white breakdown was 75/25. He would essentially need to win whites by 60/40 or more to make up the disadvantage he has with non-whites in Missouri.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: February 23, 2016, 12:06:48 PM »

Michigan numbers look great, and Ohio numbers look great for Trump.
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Torie
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« Reply #15 on: February 23, 2016, 12:38:21 PM »

And thus Kasich needs to stay in the race through Ohio. And I suspect that is why he is staying in. He is doing it for the Pub establishment team. Bless him. Smiley
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: February 23, 2016, 02:01:00 PM »

Imagine if Trump won every single one of his opponents' home states.
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PeteB
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« Reply #17 on: February 23, 2016, 02:45:17 PM »

Imagine if Trump won every single one of his opponents' home states.

Based on polling alone, he is losing in TX to Cruz and, I may be wrong, but I do not think that a mere 5% advantage will be enough to overcome Kasich's strong ground game in OH.  FL is the only "home" state he seems to be running ahead of his opponent.
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Badger
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« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2016, 06:00:17 PM »

And thus Kasich needs to stay in the race through Ohio. And I suspect that is why he is staying in. He is doing it for the Pub establishment team. Bless him. Smiley

I question that logic, Torie. As much as i back Kasich, if the goal is to stop Trump then which would the Donald be more concerned about facing here: Kasich who is already behind and will have difficulty maintaining even that level of support after what will likely be a lackluster showing Tuesday (maybe distant 2nd in a couple states at best) plus will have Rubio siphoning the establishment anti-Trump vote; or Rubio if Kasich dropped out and gave his complete public and organizational support to Rubio (in exchange for the Veep slot or at least a cushy cabinet post)?

If the establishment isn't careful , Kasich could wind up giving Trump Ohio rather than saving it from him.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2016, 06:01:57 PM »
« Edited: February 26, 2016, 06:04:18 PM by Maxwell »

And thus Kasich needs to stay in the race through Ohio. And I suspect that is why he is staying in. He is doing it for the Pub establishment team. Bless him. Smiley

I question that logic, Torie. As much as i back Kasich, if the goal is to stop Trump then which would the Donald be more concerned about facing here: Kasich who is already behind and will have difficulty maintaining even that level of support after what will likely be a lackluster showing Tuesday (maybe distant 2nd in a couple states at best) plus will have Rubio siphoning the establishment anti-Trump vote; or Rubio if Kasich dropped out and gave his complete public and organizational support to Rubio (in exchange for the Veep slot or at least a cushy cabinet post)?

If the establishment isn't careful , Kasich could wind up giving Trump Ohio rather than saving it from him.

More and more we are seeing this is not a real thing. If Kasich drops out a lot of his voters either won't vote, or even go to Trump. At least enough to block Rubio.
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Badger
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« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2016, 07:57:21 PM »

And thus Kasich needs to stay in the race through Ohio. And I suspect that is why he is staying in. He is doing it for the Pub establishment team. Bless him. Smiley

I question that logic, Torie. As much as i back Kasich, if the goal is to stop Trump then which would the Donald be more concerned about facing here: Kasich who is already behind and will have difficulty maintaining even that level of support after what will likely be a lackluster showing Tuesday (maybe distant 2nd in a couple states at best) plus will have Rubio siphoning the establishment anti-Trump vote; or Rubio if Kasich dropped out and gave his complete public and organizational support to Rubio (in exchange for the Veep slot or at least a cushy cabinet post)?

If the establishment isn't careful , Kasich could wind up giving Trump Ohio rather than saving it from him.

More and more we are seeing this is not a real thing. If Kasich drops out a lot of his voters either won't vote, or even go to Trump. At least enough to block Rubio.

Where do you get that impression, especially among his supporters in Ohio ?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #21 on: February 26, 2016, 08:16:24 PM »

And thus Kasich needs to stay in the race through Ohio. And I suspect that is why he is staying in. He is doing it for the Pub establishment team. Bless him. Smiley

I question that logic, Torie. As much as i back Kasich, if the goal is to stop Trump then which would the Donald be more concerned about facing here: Kasich who is already behind and will have difficulty maintaining even that level of support after what will likely be a lackluster showing Tuesday (maybe distant 2nd in a couple states at best) plus will have Rubio siphoning the establishment anti-Trump vote; or Rubio if Kasich dropped out and gave his complete public and organizational support to Rubio (in exchange for the Veep slot or at least a cushy cabinet post)?

If the establishment isn't careful , Kasich could wind up giving Trump Ohio rather than saving it from him.

More and more we are seeing this is not a real thing. If Kasich drops out a lot of his voters either won't vote, or even go to Trump. At least enough to block Rubio.

Where do you get that impression, especially among his supporters in Ohio ?

I get that impression from the polls. Most polls show Kasich supporters going to Rubio, sure, but only by margins like 57/26, not the kind of margins Rubio needs.

But let's assume this much - 70% goes to Rubio, 15% to Trump, 10% to Cruz, and 5% Just don't vote. And I'm generous to Rubio and Kasich - I assume 50% of undecideds would go to Kasich, and then if Kasich drops out, whatever margin of rounding for the 5% that don't vote go with Rubio. Rubio still trails Trump 36-34. That is a generous estimate. If it's 60% Rubio, 23% Trump, 12% Cruz, and  5% don't vote, it gets a lot worse - 38%-31%. And again, I'm giving the advantages to Rubio - he gets the rounding error.

The math is just not going to work.
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Badger
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« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2016, 09:53:52 PM »

And thus Kasich needs to stay in the race through Ohio. And I suspect that is why he is staying in. He is doing it for the Pub establishment team. Bless him. Smiley

I question that logic, Torie. As much as i back Kasich, if the goal is to stop Trump then which would the Donald be more concerned about facing here: Kasich who is already behind and will have difficulty maintaining even that level of support after what will likely be a lackluster showing Tuesday (maybe distant 2nd in a couple states at best) plus will have Rubio siphoning the establishment anti-Trump vote; or Rubio if Kasich dropped out and gave his complete public and organizational support to Rubio (in exchange for the Veep slot or at least a cushy cabinet post)?

If the establishment isn't careful , Kasich could wind up giving Trump Ohio rather than saving it from him.

More and more we are seeing this is not a real thing. If Kasich drops out a lot of his voters either won't vote, or even go to Trump. At least enough to block Rubio.

Where do you get that impression, especially among his supporters in Ohio ?

I get that impression from the polls. Most polls show Kasich supporters going to Rubio, sure, but only by margins like 57/26, not the kind of margins Rubio needs.

But let's assume this much - 70% goes to Rubio, 15% to Trump, 10% to Cruz, and 5% Just don't vote. And I'm generous to Rubio and Kasich - I assume 50% of undecideds would go to Kasich, and then if Kasich drops out, whatever margin of rounding for the 5% that don't vote go with Rubio. Rubio still trails Trump 36-34. That is a generous estimate. If it's 60% Rubio, 23% Trump, 12% Cruz, and  5% don't vote, it gets a lot worse - 38%-31%. And again, I'm giving the advantages to Rubio - he gets the rounding error.

The math is just not going to work.

i see your point, and certainly did 't mean Rubio would be anything close to a lock, or even necessarily competative here if Kasich drops out. the question is whether trump has more of a threat from Kasich with Rubio on the ballot as opposed to Rubio alon e with Kasich's support?
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PeteB
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« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2016, 10:04:11 PM »

Even with Kasich out, Rubio couldn't win OH. However it won't matter after March 15th as Rubio will be out and this will be a Trump-Kasich race!
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Torie
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« Reply #24 on: February 27, 2016, 09:57:56 AM »

And thus Kasich needs to stay in the race through Ohio. And I suspect that is why he is staying in. He is doing it for the Pub establishment team. Bless him. Smiley

I question that logic, Torie. As much as i back Kasich, if the goal is to stop Trump then which would the Donald be more concerned about facing here: Kasich who is already behind and will have difficulty maintaining even that level of support after what will likely be a lackluster showing Tuesday (maybe distant 2nd in a couple states at best) plus will have Rubio siphoning the establishment anti-Trump vote; or Rubio if Kasich dropped out and gave his complete public and organizational support to Rubio (in exchange for the Veep slot or at least a cushy cabinet post)?

If the establishment isn't careful , Kasich could wind up giving Trump Ohio rather than saving it from him.

More and more we are seeing this is not a real thing. If Kasich drops out a lot of his voters either won't vote, or even go to Trump. At least enough to block Rubio.

Where do you get that impression, especially among his supporters in Ohio ?

I get that impression from the polls. Most polls show Kasich supporters going to Rubio, sure, but only by margins like 57/26, not the kind of margins Rubio needs.

But let's assume this much - 70% goes to Rubio, 15% to Trump, 10% to Cruz, and 5% Just don't vote. And I'm generous to Rubio and Kasich - I assume 50% of undecideds would go to Kasich, and then if Kasich drops out, whatever margin of rounding for the 5% that don't vote go with Rubio. Rubio still trails Trump 36-34. That is a generous estimate. If it's 60% Rubio, 23% Trump, 12% Cruz, and  5% don't vote, it gets a lot worse - 38%-31%. And again, I'm giving the advantages to Rubio - he gets the rounding error.

The math is just not going to work.

i see your point, and certainly did 't mean Rubio would be anything close to a lock, or even necessarily competative here if Kasich drops out. the question is whether trump has more of a threat from Kasich with Rubio on the ballot as opposed to Rubio alon e with Kasich's support?

Well, are you assuming the Kasich numbers in the poll will erode? If he can hang on to what he has, and the bulk of the 13% of Rubio voters have any sense at all, they would shift their votes to Kasich to get him past Trump. If need be, Rubio would publicly suggest that to his voters in Ohio, given it is winner take all, and out of his respect for Kasich in his home state, or whatever. They play nice with each other anyway.
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