Bloomberg/Purple Strategies - SEC States: Trump +17

[Skye]

Trump 37
Rubio 20
Cruz 20
Carson 8
Kasich 7

Two way:

Trump 49
Cruz 40

Trump 48
Rubio 44

Trump 57
Kasich 31

Rubio 45
Cruz 40

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http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-02-25/bloomberg-politics-super-tuesday-sec-primary-republican-poll

Too bad for Rubio, this isn't a 2 man race.

[Maxwell]

So if you eliminate everyone Trump still leads pretty clearly. Looks like another establishment narrative is blown away.

[IceSpear]

Ugh, aggregate state polling is the worst. I still remember the pundits creaming themselves over Romney winning those types of junk polls.

[Skye]

Ugh, aggregate state polling is the worst. I still remember the pundits creaming themselves over Romney winning those types of junk polls.

I agree, it's not the best way to do it.

[F_S_USATN]

I'm ready for the Crossroads aggregate state polling showing Trump ahead of Clinton

***states polled (Arizona, Mississippi, Tennessee, Indiana, South Carolina, Alaska, Texas)

[Ronnie]

I think Nate Silver is finally beginning to crack:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/702979782615687169

[IceSpear]

I think Nate Silver is finally beginning to crack:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/702979782615687169

Nate Silver:

But I will go down with this ship
And I won't put my hands up and surrender
There will be no white flag above my door

[Ebsy]

I think Nate Silver is finally beginning to crack:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/702979782615687169

I read this as tongue-in-cheek.

[Ronnie]

I think Nate Silver is finally beginning to crack:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/702979782615687169

I read this as tongue-in-cheek.

He's serious:
https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/702980414252720128

[Likely Voter]

So if you eliminate everyone Trump still leads pretty clearly. Looks like another establishment narrative is blown away.

Yes and no. Rubio picks up 2/3s of the support from Cruz, Kasich and Carson so there is a point that if the field narrows, Rubio gets more competitive (at least in the South).  But that is a moot point as the field isn't going to narrow before Super Tuesday.

[Mr. Morden]

So if you eliminate everyone Trump still leads pretty clearly. Looks like another establishment narrative is blown away.

Yes and no. Rubio picks up 2/3s of the support from Cruz, Kasich and Carson so there is a point that if the field narrows, Rubio gets more competitive (at least in the South).  But that is a moot point as the field isn't going to narrow before Super Tuesday.

Yes, the point is, in a one-on-one contest, Rubio vs. Trump, the race is competitive, nationally.  As shown by this poll, where Trump's advantage over Rubio shrinks from 17 points to 4 points if you switch to the 2-man race.  Since Trump is a bit stronger in the South than he is nationally, that probably translates to about a tossup nationally, which is consistent with other polls.

So if everyone dropped out except Rubio and Trump, Rubio would have a chance.  Unfortunately for him, it's unlikely that everyone else is going to drop out any time soon.

[Mr. Morden]

Anyway, if this poll is right, then Cruz is going to finish in 3rd place (and below 20%) in most of the Southern states on Tuesday, since he's obviously doing much better than that in Texas.

[Torie]

Anyway, if this poll is right, then Cruz is going to finish in 3rd place (and below 20%) in most of the Southern states on Tuesday, since he's obviously doing much better than that in Texas.

The disposal of Cruz is about the only silver lining in this horrible adventure to which we are being subjected.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Let's dispel with this fiction that Virginia and Oklahoma have schools in the Southeastern Conference please. Highly disturbing.

[ElectionsGuy]

So much for Rubio/Cruz winning "one on one".