Republican Nevada Caucus results thread (8pm-midnight ET)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Cruz back in 2nd again.

[RI]

Humboldt 100% in

[Sir Mohamed]

New votes from Clark County, the Trumpster still at 51%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Nye, Lyon and Storey counties are the only conceivable places where Cruz can get the votes to gain 2nd. Currently Carson is 2nd in Storey, but Carson City is still out, Rubio should do better there.

[Sir Mohamed]

Carson City still voting?

[Alcon]

Storey has 7 precincts out; Clark has 844.  What matters is almost entirely what's left in Clark and (to a lesser degree) Washoe.  Obviously that means Rubio almost certainly wins second, but he's been doing fairly poorly in most recent batches from both, to the extent it's non-random.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Yeah, Cruz is back into the 20's in Washoe county, and about to break 20% in Clark.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Cruz within 3 points of Rubio in Washoe.

[RI]

Cruz's lead up to 151 votes. He's closing ground in Clark to within 3% of Rubio.

EDIT: 190 now

[Sir Mohamed]

The Trumpster up to 44% again.

[RI]

Carson City finally shows up

[Sir Mohamed]

Yes, Trump leading Marco 44-24%.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Nye County has all the elements of a really bad b-movie that an edgy middle school boy would write: nuclear radiation, hookers, and hardcore libertarians.

Best comment in this thread so far.

[Sir Mohamed]

Cruz widens his lead over Marco, the Trumpster up over 44%.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Nye is 100% in

[Alcon]

OK, Clark just did a huge batch of votes (over half now in statewide) and, again, Cruz narrowly won it.  Rubio now leads there by about 2 points.  In the last half hour of Clark and Washoe ballots, Cruz has actually led Rubio 1,178 to 1,096.  I still doubt he can pull this off, but...this is fun.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

OK, Clark just did a huge batch of votes (over half now in statewide) and, again, Cruz narrowly won it.  Rubio now leads there by about 2 points.  In the last half hour of Clark and Washoe ballots, Cruz has actually led Rubio 1,178 to 1,096.  I still doubt he can pull this off, but...this is fun.

Sounds like rural precincts are coming in.

[Sir Mohamed]

OK, Clark just did a huge batch of votes (over half now in statewide) and, again, Cruz narrowly won it.  Rubio now leads there by about 2 points.  In the last half hour of Clark and Washoe ballots, Cruz has actually led Rubio 1,178 to 1,096.  I still doubt he can pull this off, but...this is fun.

The Trumpster constatnly stays at 51%.

[Alcon]

OK, Clark just did a huge batch of votes (over half now in statewide) and, again, Cruz narrowly won it.  Rubio now leads there by about 2 points.  In the last half hour of Clark and Washoe ballots, Cruz has actually led Rubio 1,178 to 1,096.  I still doubt he can pull this off, but...this is fun.

Sounds like rural precincts are coming in.

I really doubt that.  It's been 248 new precincts between the two of them and Cruz still (narrowly) leads these new precincts [edit: or did].  There really aren't many rural precincts in these parts, either.  Keep in mind that Las Vegas basically goes immediately from subdivisions to nothing:



That said, Clark just put in a TON of votes, which were 48% Trump, 27% Rubio, 21% Cruz, putting Rubio back in the lead.  He's probably fine, but this is embarrassingly close (to the few of us who care).

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So, I take it Ben Carson is staying in?

[Sir Mohamed]

So, I take it Ben Carson is staying in?

Likely yes.

The Trumpster now over 45%. Marco almost 800 votes ahead of Cruz.

[Alcon]

Lander finished, and Cruz got pretty close to Trump in the end.

At this point, we have 18 precincts left in Lyon, 99 Washoe, and 268 in Clark.

[Joe Republic]

OK, Clark just did a huge batch of votes (over half now in statewide) and, again, Cruz narrowly won it.  Rubio now leads there by about 2 points.  In the last half hour of Clark and Washoe ballots, Cruz has actually led Rubio 1,178 to 1,096.  I still doubt he can pull this off, but...this is fun.

Sounds like rural precincts are coming in.

I really doubt that.  It's been 248 new precincts between the two of them and Cruz still (narrowly) leads these new precincts [edit: or did].  There really aren't many rural precincts in these parts, either.  Keep in mind that Las Vegas basically goes immediately from subdivisions to nothing:

Las Vegas isn't all of Clark county.  I won't argue that there are a lot of rural precincts, but I just listed about fifteen Hills Have Eyes communities in my head, all within Clark county.  They're terrifying, but they're out there.

[Sir Mohamed]

The Trumpster now almost tied edit: AHEAD of Rubio and Cruz combined.

[Alcon]

OK, Clark just did a huge batch of votes (over half now in statewide) and, again, Cruz narrowly won it.  Rubio now leads there by about 2 points.  In the last half hour of Clark and Washoe ballots, Cruz has actually led Rubio 1,178 to 1,096.  I still doubt he can pull this off, but...this is fun.

Sounds like rural precincts are coming in.

I really doubt that.  It's been 248 new precincts between the two of them and Cruz still (narrowly) leads these new precincts [edit: or did].  There really aren't many rural precincts in these parts, either.  Keep in mind that Las Vegas basically goes immediately from subdivisions to nothing:

Las Vegas isn't all of Clark county.  I won't argue that there are a lot of rural precincts, but I just listed about fifteen Hills Have Eyes communities in my head, all within Clark county.  They're terrifying, but they're out there.

I know, I'm just saying it's hard to imagine it's likely that those 248 could have been predominately rural?  It's not like a lot of places where you transition from suburbs into rural-ish exurbs where tons of people live.