When will Sanders drop out?
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  When will Sanders drop out?
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April 26-30
 
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During the convention
 
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He will win
 
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Author Topic: When will Sanders drop out?  (Read 3211 times)
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darthebearnc
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« on: February 22, 2016, 05:26:56 PM »

My best guess is after March 15.
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Sic Semper Fascistis
Antonio V
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« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2016, 05:28:49 PM »

Probably in May-June. He will have lost long before that point, but that doesn't mean he has to stop campaigning.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2016, 05:29:40 PM »

Late April, maybe in May or June . I would not be shocked to see him want to campaign in every state. He currently has the money to do it.
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2016, 05:30:29 PM »

Probably sometime in May, maybe even June if he does a bit better.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2016, 05:31:09 PM »

At least until May 10th, because he has a shot at winning West Virginia. He may not win the nomination but he'll want to win as many delegates as possible.
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2016, 05:32:28 PM »

If he really wants to influence the party, he will stay in until the last primary to get delegates.
Even if Clinton has enough delegates to win before California, he could win California and possibly (albeit unlikely) convince enough super delegates to switch thus giving him the nomination.
Perhaps, Clinton has a slight edge right now, but Sanders can beat Clinton. He can, figuratively speaking, be the next Obama, although perhaps a little more liberal. Therefore I voted he will win. I could be wrong.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2016, 05:33:04 PM »

Sanders is a candidate running on a message, and he's not gonna run in 2020. He's making the most of it this year. Probably early June he officially suspends his campaign.
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Orser67
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« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2016, 05:36:19 PM »

I think he'll be like Ron Paul in that he won't officially drop out, but he won't really campaign either. I predict that it will be clear that he won't win and is no longer actively trying to win after March 15th.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2016, 05:44:54 PM »

Probably in May-June. He will have lost long before that point, but that doesn't mean he has to stop campaigning.

This is what I hope will happen. It's basically given that Hillary will actually win the nomination, but I want Sanders to try to win as many states as possible beforehand so fifty years from now, when we look back and remember the semi-corrupt and relatively uneventful Clinton Administration, we can go to https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html and think "BERNIE" instead of "bernie."
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Crumpets
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« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2016, 05:49:43 PM »

I think Bernie will drop out after the April 26th contests.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2016, 05:50:52 PM »

Of course, that totally depends on how well he does. If he only keeps his current level of support, I'd have to say March 15th, or shortly thereafter.
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Sic Semper Fascistis
Antonio V
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« Reply #11 on: February 22, 2016, 05:57:56 PM »

Probably in May-June. He will have lost long before that point, but that doesn't mean he has to stop campaigning.

This is what I hope will happen. It's basically given that Hillary will actually win the nomination, but I want Sanders to try to win as many states as possible beforehand so fifty years from now, when we look back and remember the semi-corrupt and relatively uneventful Clinton Administration, we can go to https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html and think "BERNIE" instead of "bernie."

I can already see the "Don't blame me, I voted for Bernie!" buttons flourishing.
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #12 on: February 22, 2016, 06:03:40 PM »

Probably in May-June. He will have lost long before that point, but that doesn't mean he has to stop campaigning.

This is what I hope will happen. It's basically given that Hillary will actually win the nomination, but I want Sanders to try to win as many states as possible beforehand so fifty years from now, when we look back and remember the semi-corrupt and relatively uneventful Clinton Administration, we can go to https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html and think "BERNIE" instead of "bernie."
It's way too premature to say that Mrs. Clinton is inevitable, the two latest polls show a 3 point spread and the margin for error is 4 points. Sanders is still rising and could really surprise people on March 1, regardless of what happens in South Carolina. If Sanders does very poorly on March 1, maybe it would be tenable for others to say she is inevitable even if I don't.
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #13 on: February 22, 2016, 06:24:20 PM »

When will Clinton drop out? That is the real question. LOL
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« Reply #14 on: February 22, 2016, 06:25:55 PM »

Obviously, Sanders will drop out after Super Tuesday when he loses every state except for his lily white home state of Vermont.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #15 on: February 22, 2016, 06:37:32 PM »

I think after Obama endorses shortly after Super Tuesday.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: February 22, 2016, 06:40:25 PM »

As I pointed out here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=229617.0

Sanders might just try to win as many delegates as possible in order to influence the DNC platform.  The magic number for him is 25%.  If he controls at least 25% of all delegates (including supers), then he has a chance to force votes at the convention on his pet issues, and if necessary release a minority report that dissents from the official platform.

I leave it up to someone else to calculate at what point he'd most likely get up to 25% of all delegates.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: February 22, 2016, 06:51:09 PM »

I like how in one week we've gone from "Is Hillary even the favorite anymore?" to "When will Sanders drop out?"
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #18 on: February 22, 2016, 07:14:22 PM »

I like how in one week we've gone from "Is Hillary even the favorite anymore?" to "When will Sanders drop out?"

Good point.  In reality, Sanders has only moved in DEM NOM betting markets from 18% to 13%.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #19 on: February 22, 2016, 07:19:05 PM »

I think he will stay in it until Clinton has secured enough pledged delegates to win nomination, which could happen in April but possibly not until May or June
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Frodo
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« Reply #20 on: February 22, 2016, 07:29:49 PM »

He's our version of Ron Paul -he'll keep running all the way to the Convention, all the while accumulating delegates and taking over select state party committees. 
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jfern
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« Reply #21 on: February 22, 2016, 07:40:33 PM »

I think he will stay in it until Clinton has secured enough pledged delegates to win nomination, which could happen in April but possibly not until May or June

June 7th will be the date someone gets a majority of the pledged delegates. Unless it's a total squeaker, then June 14th.
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Duke 🇺🇸
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« Reply #22 on: February 22, 2016, 07:45:26 PM »

He might go until the convention if he has the money to do so. He's apparently out raising Hillary now that her big donors are tapped out and he's getting small donations from a lot of different people.

He's running on a message and I could see him continuing until it's all over.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #23 on: February 22, 2016, 07:56:53 PM »

Not until the convention.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #24 on: February 22, 2016, 08:03:45 PM »

He might go until the convention if he has the money to do so. He's apparently out raising Hillary now that her big donors are tapped out and he's getting small donations from a lot of different people.

Based on his January fundraising report though, he's also spending money at a far higher rate than she is.  His current spending rate isn't sustainable.  (Then again, the pace of the primaries will slow down quite a bit after March 15, which is only three weeks away.)
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