Would President Clinton be re elected?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Would President Clinton be re elected?
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Question: you know the drill
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Author Topic: Would President Clinton be re elected?  (Read 1900 times)
I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
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« on: February 21, 2016, 08:21:11 PM »

I doubt it, I can easily see the Democrats splintering in her term, with many liberals becoming dissatisfied with her. Then I can see Tom Cotton coming to the Republican's rescue in 2020. Assuming Obama's executive order is upheld in court, immigration should hopefully be less of an issue.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2016, 08:23:51 PM »

A year ago everyone thought Hillary would have no competition for the nomination and the GOP nomination would come down to a 2-man race between Jeb and Scott Walker. Predictions are over.
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MM876
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« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2016, 08:25:39 PM »

She's getting serious dissent from the left, Republicans hate her, and people might just get tired of Democrats after 12 years. The question is whether the Republicans can field a reasonable candidate. If the Republican nominee in 2020 is someone like Trump or Cruz, Clinton will probably be reelected, but if it's someone like Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman Jr., or McCain, then the Republican will probably win.

The only issue is that I suspect if Clinton becomes president, given she has said in November that she will put ground troops in Syria, is that people will be hesitant to vote out a wartime president.
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2016, 08:29:37 PM »

If she wins she'd be favored to win re-election, just like every other president ever.  Party fatigue is a myth.
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Frodo
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« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2016, 08:33:33 PM »

She would be re-elected barring a major misstep on her part.  Party fatigue is a myth -George H. W. Bush, for instance, lost re-election in 1992 not because people had grown tired of having Republicans occupying the White House for twelve years but rather that he had lied on his 'read my lips -no new taxes' pledge, and his tone-deafness on the economic hardships ordinary Americans were enduring after the recession. 
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2016, 08:34:42 PM »

She's have a whirlwind up against her, that's for sure. Although something more than simply having three terms in a row (a recession, a long war, a corruption scandal, etc.) would probably have to be part of her downfall. An incumbent president is always harder to defeat than a non-incumbent candidate, but this time it would be more 50/50 due to the massive distrust in public institutions in the US and because she would continue the status quo.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2016, 08:36:28 PM »

Um... a) she needs to be elected first b) we have no idea what the focus/issues of her presidency are.

So, I know this place is obsessed with prognostication... but, no.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2016, 08:41:01 PM »

Considering how accurate our predictions for the primaries/caucuses have been the day before, I don't think we should be making predictions for 2020...
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Frodo
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« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2016, 08:42:48 PM »

Also, since Donald Trump is likely going to be the 2016 GOP presidential nominee, if he loses it will all too easily be because he wasn't conservative enough.  So look for a dyed-in-the-wool Tea Party darling like Tim Scott to pick up the GOP banner in 2020.....and lose.  
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2016, 09:12:23 PM »

Depends but I'm leaning on yes. The GOP is pretty much damaged now.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2016, 09:24:51 PM »

Probably not.

Party fatigue has been consistent in the last 20+ elections (even when parties win a third term it's by a smaller margin than before.)

The 2010 and 2014 elections gave Republicans a strong bench.

Clinton's struggles against Sanders highlight her flaws as a candidate.

The self-inflicted wounds are unlikely to end when she holds an office with even more scrutiny than before.
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Higgs
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« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2016, 09:38:34 PM »


It does seem like a President Clinton would be the best opportunity for Paul to win in 2020. Alas, I doubt it happens, America isn't ready for libertarianism.
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2016, 09:41:32 PM »

America isn't ready for libertarianism.

What are you talking about?  America is about to elect its first libertarian President!
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2016, 10:19:56 PM »

What does the economy look like in 2019?
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2016, 10:25:38 PM »

At this point, I think Senator Rubio will be a major contender in 2020 no matter what happens. If he wins the nomination and the general election, he's obviously got it. If he wins the nomination but loses the general, Mrs. Clinton has proven herself to be a terrible candidate (she's struggling against a socialist, for crying out loud), and the election will almost certainly be very closes in that situation. There's even the possibility of the GOP winning the popular vote but losing the electoral vote. If he loses the nomination, he's already made it this far, so he shouldn't have too much trouble winning the nomination in four years.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2016, 10:30:47 PM »

At this point, I think Senator Rubio will be a major contender in 2020 no matter what happens. If he wins the nomination and the general election, he's obviously got it. If he wins the nomination but loses the general, Mrs. Clinton has proven herself to be a terrible candidate (she's struggling against a socialist, for crying out loud), and the election will almost certainly be very closes in that situation. There's even the possibility of the GOP winning the popular vote but losing the electoral vote. If he loses the nomination, he's already made it this far, so he shouldn't have too much trouble winning the nomination in four years.

Let's put to bed this myth that she is struggling against Sanders. The race is closer than she thought, but he also had a huge advantage in the first two states - demographically and geographically. Let's not forget Al Gore almost lost NH to Bill Bradley, GWB lost NH to John McCain and was scared sh**tless going into SC. All front running campaigns that are non-incumbent presidents face challenges - it's how you respond. She got a 6 point win in a sh**tshow of a caucus in Nevada and is poised for a 20-30 point blow out in SC. She will win almost all of the primaries on Super Tuesday. People are acting like this is some panic stricken campaign falling apart at the seams...
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2016, 10:38:02 PM »

At this point, I think Senator Rubio will be a major contender in 2020 no matter what happens. If he wins the nomination and the general election, he's obviously got it. If he wins the nomination but loses the general, Mrs. Clinton has proven herself to be a terrible candidate (she's struggling against a socialist, for crying out loud), and the election will almost certainly be very closes in that situation. There's even the possibility of the GOP winning the popular vote but losing the electoral vote. If he loses the nomination, he's already made it this far, so he shouldn't have too much trouble winning the nomination in four years.

Let's put to bed this myth that she is struggling against Sanders. The race is closer than she thought, but he also had a huge advantage in the first two states - demographically and geographically. Let's not forget Al Gore almost lost NH to Bill Bradley, GWB lost NH to John McCain and was scared sh**tless going into SC. All front running campaigns that are non-incumbent presidents face challenges - it's how you respond. She got a 6 point win in a sh**tshow of a caucus in Nevada and is poised for a 20-30 point blow out in SC. She will win almost all of the primaries on Super Tuesday. People are acting like this is some panic stricken campaign falling apart at the seams...

THANK YOU. People seem to forget that other inevitable nominees like Dubya and Gore lost states and "were in deep trouble!!111!!!!" at certain points, but still won easily. It's easy to overreact in the moment though. I wonder how many "Dubya collapsing!" stories were penned after his crushing loss in NH?

Politics and the media abhor a vacuum.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #17 on: February 22, 2016, 08:02:17 AM »

Honestly, I have no idea. Too early. But I have such a feeling that the 2016 winner, no matter if Dem or GOPer, is going to be a one-termer.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #18 on: February 22, 2016, 08:49:52 AM »

Why won't we try to predict the 2036 election while we're at it?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #19 on: February 22, 2016, 11:06:33 AM »

Probably not.

Party fatigue has been consistent in the last 20+ elections (even when parties win a third term it's by a smaller margin than before.)

The 2010 and 2014 elections gave Republicans a strong bench.

Clinton's struggles against Sanders highlight her flaws as a candidate.

The self-inflicted wounds are unlikely to end when she holds an office with even more scrutiny than before.

Really, if that were true, Republicans would not have won so many landslides between 1968 - 1988. Even Carter, the sole Democratic win during that period, just barely won with a 2pt or less margin after that whole Nixon fiasco. Considering how much Nixon cost Republicans across the country in state legislatures/Congress, you would think if people were turned off by Republicans they would have gave him more votes. Also, Bush 41 still won by an EV landslide (though his popular vote would probably be considered one today), and Bush was no Reagan.
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Orser67
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« Reply #20 on: February 22, 2016, 06:33:38 PM »

Probably, incumbents usually win re-election and I don't really believe that party fatigue is that big of a factor, especially given that Republicans will almost certainly control both houses of Congress after 2018 (Republicans would be favored to pick up a net of at least four Senate seats in a 2018 Clinton mid-term).
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DS0816
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« Reply #21 on: February 22, 2016, 06:51:17 PM »

Re: Would President Clinton be re elected?

Bill, Hillary, or Chelsea?
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Prince of Salem
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« Reply #22 on: February 22, 2016, 08:23:57 PM »


This. My thoughts exactly.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #23 on: February 22, 2016, 09:33:47 PM »

Nope, mostly because I'm having a hard time seeing anything from 2016 sticking on the Presidential level.

The GOP seems to be re-playing the Democrats of '76 and the Democrats appear to be re-playing the GOP of '88.

Doesn't help that a lot of '76, '88, and 2000 seem to be going on, and with more media outlets on it.
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RRusso1982
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« Reply #24 on: February 23, 2016, 01:56:49 PM »

Speaking of 1976, I think Ford may have prevailed over Carter if it wasn't for his debate gaffe, with "There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe."  A swing of 6,000 votes in Ohio and 15,000 votes in Wisconsin, that was the Presidency.  Those are both old Rust Belt states with huge populations of people of Eastern European descent.  Those states were close enough that that gaffe could have made a difference. 
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