Two Americans in World Chess Championship qualifier

[anvi]

The participants in the International Chess Federation Candidates Tournament, hosted by Moscow from March 10-30, a tournament that will decide who challenges Carlsen for the world title in November, have been determined. The slate includes two players representing the U.S., for the first time in a very long while. All the contestants are listed below in order of current world ranking and by country, followed by how they qualified.

Fabiano Caruana (U.S.), #3 -- runner-up in 2015 World Cup
Anish Giri (Netherlands), #4 --qualified by rating
Hikaru Nakamura (U.S.), #5 -- winner of 2015 World Cup
Levon Aronian (Armenia), #7 -- wildcard pick of host country
Veselin Topalov (Bulgaria), #8 --qualified by rating
Viswanathan Anand (India), #12 -- last challenger in world championship
Sergey Karjakin (Russia), #13 - winner of 2015 Grand Prix
Peter Svidler (Russia), #15 -- runner up of 2015 Grand Prix

You'll notice that the players who qualified by rating, Giri and Topalov, aren't the currently top-ranked players in the world--in fact the world's number 2 player at the moment, former world champion from Russia, Vladimir Kramnik, did not qualify for the Candidates Tournament.  The reason is that the players who did qualify by rating did so on the basis of the comparative rating of their play against opponents for the calendar year 2015, and not on their present rating.  

In any case, since two Americans have qualified out of a field of eight, the U.S. stands a 25 percent chance, before the event begins, of entering a player into the World Chess Championship match for the first time since Bobby Fischer in 1972.  But I must say that the field this year is extremely evenly competitive, and as it will be a double round-robin, 15 games over three weeks, really anyone could win.  Will be fun to watch--at least for me!

[temmie b. <3]

Glad to see this. Still most likely going to support Carlsen, though.

[anvi]

I suspect Magnus Carlsen will be world champion for quite some time still.  But it's a good boost for chess in the U.S.; even having someone in the WCC match for the first time in almost 45 years would be big.

[anvi]

After five rounds of the 15-round double-round robin Candidates Tournament in Moscow, which will determine who will challenge Magnus Carlsen for the world chess championship in November, the two American competitors have not been faring as well as expected.  Fabiano Caruana, with five draws, is in a four-way tie for third place, and Hikaru Nakamura, after four draws and a loss, is next-to-last.  This is somewhat surprising, since Caruana and Nakamura were the two odds-on favorites entering the tournament.  But ten rounds and lots of play remain, so we'll see.  Russian GM Sergey Karjakin leads the event with +2-0=3 and Levon Aronian from Armenia trails hm by half a point, with +1-0=4.  Current positions are, however, listed according to tiebreak credit earned with results so far.

1.  Sergey Karjakin, Russia           3.5
2.  Levon Aronian, Armenia             3
3.  Anish Giri, Netherlands            2.5
4.  Fabiano Caruana, USA             2.5
5.  Viswanathan Anand, India        2.5
6.  Peter Svidler, Russia                 2.5
7.  Hikaru Nakamura, USA                2
8.  Vesalin Topalov, Bulgaria           1.5 

[muon2]

Thanks for starting this thread. I took advantage of some mornings at home to catch the live coverage of the last three rounds. The commentating isn't as polished as US sports, but it's a lot better than a few years ago. Caruana certainly made a good showing in the second half of the tournament, and brought it to a final game. It would have been interesting to see how it played out if Karjakin was the one who needed the win instead of Caruana. Still, I don't know if either of them is up to Carlson's level come Nov.

[anvi]

Hi muon2 and all,

Yes, sorry I didn't keep up this thread; between watching as many of the rounds as I could and work, I didn't have time to do a lot of updating.  I don't think anyone is up to Carlsen's level right now, and won't be for some years.  He is just at a level of chess understanding that's beyond the competition.  The only way Carlsen will lose the title anytime soon is if he just loses his ambition for chess.  

The commentary and the general coverage by Agon was just bad.  They had a top GM doing the commentary, but he just doesn't know how to explain the plans on the board in an engaging way.  The fact that Agon, which bought exclusive live broadcasting rights to the tournament, is suing other chess websites for relaying and commenting on the moves has left an exceedingly bad taste in the mouths of chess fans everywhere.  They had due legal rights, but just went about things in very bad form all around.

I was a bit surprised by how poorly Nakamura did in the event.  I didn't think much of him as a GM for a long time, but for the last year-and-a-half, he has played superbly against everyone except Carlsen.  But at this event, he was easily outplayed and only stepped up his game in the last few rounds.  Caruana played extremely well through the whole event, and the prospect of having to win with the Black pieces in this last round would be an enormous task for any GM at the top strata of competition, where the best 25-30 players in the world are so evenly matched.  And even in the final game, Caruana managed to apply small but consistent pressure, and it was really only one miscalculation at a critical moment that immediately threw the game away to Karjakin.  I wish Caruana had been able to come out victorious.  Had he been the first American player to challenge for the world championship since Fischer in '72, with the match being hosted in New York City, it would have proven a great boost for chess in the U.S.

Karjakin will make for a strong challenger against Carlsen.  I have long had great respect for Karjakin as a player.  He was the world's youngest Grandmaster in history when he achieved that norm, and in addition to finishing 2nd to Anand in the 2014 Candidates Tournament, he won both last year's Grand Prix and this year's Candidates in impressive fashion.  He is a strategically solid player who plays creatively and bravely in tough positions, even though at heart he is a positional player.  His opening expertise and his willingness to play through very long endgames are going to make him a tough cookie in November.  

There is only one drawback, I think, to Karjakin being the challenger.  The games of the world championship match will not be exciting.  At all.  They will be long, strategic, nuanced wars of attrition that will all reach theoretical endgames.  There is just not enough of a contrast in styles between the players to make for dynamic tactical games.  So, for the first world championship match to take place in the U.S. in 21 years, I'm afraid that, for all but chess purists, it will be a real bore-athon.  Carlsen's versatility and feel for how to gain subtle but lasting advantages will take him through to a successful defense.  And no one will want to see a rematch between these two players afterward.

[anvi]

Here is British GM Daniel King's excellent analysis of the final round game between Karjakin and Caruana.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNzvzkUT3Ts&feature=youtu.be