NV-CNN/ORC: D: Clinton 48% Sanders 47%; R: Trump 45% Rubio 19% Cruz 17%
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  NV-CNN/ORC: D: Clinton 48% Sanders 47%; R: Trump 45% Rubio 19% Cruz 17%
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Author Topic: NV-CNN/ORC: D: Clinton 48% Sanders 47%; R: Trump 45% Rubio 19% Cruz 17%  (Read 8707 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #25 on: February 17, 2016, 08:18:20 AM »

Those sub-samples for the Dem race are downright whacky. I'm not saying they're wrong, but this would be completely counter to what we're expecting.

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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #26 on: February 17, 2016, 08:21:29 AM »

Those sub-samples for the Dem race are downright whacky. I'm not saying they're wrong, but this would be completely counter to what we're expecting.



They only gave the results for whites, but did it say anywhere what percentage whites are?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #27 on: February 17, 2016, 08:23:15 AM »

Those sub-samples for the Dem race are downright whacky. I'm not saying they're wrong, but this would be completely counter to what we're expecting.

The margin of error on the age subsamples suggests to me that the response rate for young people was pretty poor, so the few young people who did answer the phone were given a lot of weight, in order for the demographic balance to make sense.  I don't know if that helps to explain it.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #28 on: February 17, 2016, 08:34:26 AM »

I'm disappointed by the lack of crosstab info by religion.  I want to know how the Mormons are voting.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #29 on: February 17, 2016, 08:36:48 AM »

They didn't mention at all if they polled in Spanish which seems like quite an oversight (contributed to everyone thinking Sharron Angle would beat Harry Reid).
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #30 on: February 17, 2016, 08:45:31 AM »

At least it seems to confirm what most of us have suspected: the Democratic race is close (but I still give Hillary the edge for a number of reasons) and the Republican race is a snoozefest.
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cxs018
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« Reply #31 on: February 17, 2016, 08:49:50 AM »

Hillbots come to polls like this like moths to a flame.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #32 on: February 17, 2016, 08:58:05 AM »

Quote
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You're not going to get any detailed cross tabs with respondent numbers like that. These CNN polls suck.
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Türkisblau
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« Reply #33 on: February 17, 2016, 09:00:37 AM »

... but the Guac-man speaks Spanish!
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #34 on: February 17, 2016, 09:04:11 AM »

Hillbots come to polls like this like moths to a flame.

Do you ever even attempt to contribute?
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mds32
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« Reply #35 on: February 17, 2016, 09:04:44 AM »

CNN has been trying to drive a narrative.
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cxs018
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« Reply #36 on: February 17, 2016, 09:05:14 AM »

Hillbots come to polls like this like moths to a flame.

Do you ever even attempt to contribute?

I have contributed 2,000 more posts to this website than you have.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #37 on: February 17, 2016, 09:08:30 AM »

Hillbots come to polls like this like moths to a flame.

Do you ever even attempt to contribute?

I have contributed 2,000 more posts to this website than you have.

Thats not what I meant.
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cxs018
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« Reply #38 on: February 17, 2016, 09:13:39 AM »

Hillbots come to polls like this like moths to a flame.

Do you ever even attempt to contribute?

I have contributed 2,000 more posts to this website than you have.

Thats not what I meant.

Ah. Well, I certainly consider myself a contributor.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #39 on: February 17, 2016, 09:20:28 AM »

This is very strange - if Clinton and Sanders are breaking even with whites, she holds huge leads with women and voters over 45, how can this race be a dead heat? CNN must think that the electorate is going to significantly change from 2008 - many more men and younger voters, and we don't have any Black and Hispanic numbers. In 2008, voters over 45 made up a whopping 68% of the electorate and Hillary is winning them by over 40 points.

The disappointing part is that from the cross-tabs Hillary should be doing well - but the secret sauce that they apply makes this a dead heat, but they don't provide a rationale for why this is a dead heat. I'm going to go out on a limb and say if Clinton and Sanders break even with whites on Saturday that she will win.
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« Reply #40 on: February 17, 2016, 09:23:16 AM »

This is very strange - if Clinton and Sanders are breaking even with whites, she holds huge leads with women and voters over 45, how can this race be a dead heat? CNN must think that the electorate is going to significantly change from 2008 - many more men and younger voters, and we don't have any Black and Hispanic numbers. In 2008, voters over 45 made up a whopping 68% of the electorate and Hillary is winning them by over 40 points.

The disappointing part is that from the cross-tabs Hillary should be doing well - but the secret sauce that they apply makes this a dead heat, but they don't provide a rationale for why this is a dead heat. I'm going to go out on a limb and say if Clinton and Sanders break even with whites on Saturday that she will win.

Quite.  But with a sample of 280 voters you get all manners of nonsense and noise.  Maybe this worked in more homogenous states like IA and NH but you get wacked out crap in states like NV, which is impossible to poll, anyway. 
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EliteLX
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« Reply #41 on: February 17, 2016, 09:40:07 AM »

My God, ol' Jeb..
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Oakvale
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« Reply #42 on: February 17, 2016, 09:46:20 AM »

Wow, beautiful numbers for TRUMP. Should set him up for an easy win in South Carolina next week.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #43 on: February 17, 2016, 09:58:19 AM »

Wow, beautiful numbers for TRUMP. Should set him up for an easy win in South Carolina next week.

South Carolina for the Republicans is this Saturday with Nevada on Tuesday. Democrats are in Nevada this Saturday and South Carolina the Saturday before Super Tuesday.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #44 on: February 17, 2016, 09:59:56 AM »

According to this link, the new CNN poll of Nevada has Clinton ahead of Sanders with non-white voters 56-43. And she is leading with Whites 46-44. So, how is this race tied? Something doesn't add up in their cross tabs.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/17/politics/planned-parenthood-hillary-clinton-nevada/index.html
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Oakvale
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« Reply #45 on: February 17, 2016, 10:07:32 AM »

Wow, beautiful numbers for TRUMP. Should set him up for an easy win in South Carolina next week.

South Carolina for the Republicans is this Saturday with Nevada on Tuesday. Democrats are in Nevada this Saturday and South Carolina the Saturday before Super Tuesday.

Oh yeah, I forgot about that. Lame. Allow me to rephrase -

Wow, beautiful numbers for TRUMP. Should make for great coverage after his easy win in South Carolina the week prior.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #46 on: February 17, 2016, 10:16:46 AM »

According to this link, the new CNN poll of Nevada has Clinton ahead of Sanders with non-white voters 56-43. And she is leading with Whites 46-44. So, how is this race tied? Something doesn't add up in their cross tabs.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/17/politics/planned-parenthood-hillary-clinton-nevada/index.html
Very odd.  Maybe a typo in the article?
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #47 on: February 17, 2016, 10:28:57 AM »

Maybe the crosstabs are accurate but the headlines were made up.
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« Reply #48 on: February 17, 2016, 10:44:48 AM »

According to this link, the new CNN poll of Nevada has Clinton ahead of Sanders with non-white voters 56-43. And she is leading with Whites 46-44. So, how is this race tied? Something doesn't add up in their cross tabs.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/17/politics/planned-parenthood-hillary-clinton-nevada/index.html

Wacky business with White Hispanics?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #49 on: February 17, 2016, 10:49:28 AM »

According to this link, the new CNN poll of Nevada has Clinton ahead of Sanders with non-white voters 56-43. And she is leading with Whites 46-44. So, how is this race tied? Something doesn't add up in their cross tabs.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/17/politics/planned-parenthood-hillary-clinton-nevada/index.html

CNN polling has discovered a third type of American voter: Neither white nor non-white.  Little is known about this group, other than their strong affinity for socialism.
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