SC-ARG Tracking Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If Kasich is truly in 2nd that would be a massive boost to Kasich's campaign. It proves he can at least campaign in the South.

[Eraserhead]

They were terrible on the Democratic side in NH though. Their final poll was Clinton +9.

What? Do you mean -9?

Yes, my bad (or Sanders +9).

[RBH]

Lol whites are not voting for Clinton ARRRRGGG.

You know SC whites are different to NH and IA whites don't you? I don't expect Clinton to win whites in the end, but it won't be the blow-out it was in those contests.

Chuck Todd trying to do envelope math and starting by giving Sanders the same % of whites in SC and NH is amusingly stupid.

Plus, there's gonna be a chunk of voters that are going to end up voting in the R primary on 2/20 and unable to vote in the D Primary on 2/27.

[IceSpear]

Lol whites are not voting for Clinton ARRRRGGG.

You know SC whites are different to NH and IA whites don't you? I don't expect Clinton to win whites in the end, but it won't be the blow-out it was in those contests.

Chuck Todd trying to do envelope math and starting by giving Sanders the same % of whites in SC and NH is amusingly stupid.

Plus, there's gonna be a chunk of voters that are going to end up voting in the R primary on 2/20 and unable to vote in the D Primary on 2/27.

LOL, is Chuck Todd really that much of a fat moron? If you're going to operate under ridiculous assumptions, then it would be a much better one to split them the same way as IA, not Bernie's quasi home state.

[Ebsy]

Automatically assigning Sanders 60% of whites seems like a foolish enterprise if there ever was one.

[Tender Branson]

RIP Hillary, Trump and Kasich.

Good news for Sanders and Cruz though.

[Holmes]

RIP Hillary, Trump and Kasich.

Good news for Sanders and Cruz though.

Too many Blaxicasians polled!

[RBH]

Lol whites are not voting for Clinton ARRRRGGG.

You know SC whites are different to NH and IA whites don't you? I don't expect Clinton to win whites in the end, but it won't be the blow-out it was in those contests.

Chuck Todd trying to do envelope math and starting by giving Sanders the same % of whites in SC and NH is amusingly stupid.

Plus, there's gonna be a chunk of voters that are going to end up voting in the R primary on 2/20 and unable to vote in the D Primary on 2/27.

LOL, is Chuck Todd really that much of a fat moron? If you're going to operate under ridiculous assumptions, then it would be a much better one to split them the same way as IA, not Bernie's quasi home state.

He probably is.. but here's the tweets that inspired my comments on him..

"A little back of the envelope math for SC Dem primary: if Sanders wins 61% of white vote (as he did in NH) he needs 43% of black vote to win

Will have a lot more on the math to focus on in both races on tomorrow's @meetthepress

In the last NBC/WSJ/Marist SC poll, Clinton led Sanders among blacks 74-17... he has a lot of work to do."

Guys like Chuck Todd are in the business of creating horseraces. It's more exciting that way. Todd probably has his MTP job until Luke Russert gets seasoned enough to that that job.

Todd's the guy that bitched all night during IA that "Hillary declared too victory too early" or some BS like that.

[Tender Branson]

CBS/YouGov will have new polls out later today (I guess for NV and SC and/or a few ST states) and I'd trust those numbers more than a silly ARG poll.

After all, CBS/YouGov was within 2% in both IA and NH on the Democratic side.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

RIP Hillary, Trump and Kasich.

Good news for Sanders and Cruz though.

Too many Blaxicasians polled!

Obviously

[RBH]

Also, once Kasich leaves office in OH, he's free to note that he quietly bought ARG and molded it to be a polling outlet designed to produce pro-Kasich polls.

As for YouGov. Are they gonna release polls whose Margin of Error is under 7% this time?

[President Johnson]

Great poll for both sides. TRUMP and Hillary ahead. And Kasich surging to second place. LOVE IT! GO JOHN! And Rafael is down, just fantastic.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

This H babies still crying?

[Averroës Nix]

Automatically assigning Sanders 60% of whites seems like a foolish enterprise if there ever was one.

That's what the crosstabs for the most recent poll prior to this one said, so it's not that ridiculous. If this poll is closer to the truth, than there's barely any point in even doing the math. But we don't have enough convergence between polls (yet) to rule it out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Its ARG  for Christ's sake. Immolate.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I deleted the comment, because it didn't come off the way I intended.  I was being sarcastically over the top and suggesting that a black person voting for Clinton would be self-destructive.  Not good judgement on my part.  Sorry. 

[emailking]

Lol whites are not voting for Clinton ARRRRGGG.

You know SC whites are different to NH and IA whites don't you? I don't expect Clinton to win whites in the end, but it won't be the blow-out it was in those contests.

Chuck Todd trying to do envelope math and starting by giving Sanders the same % of whites in SC and NH is amusingly stupid.

Plus, there's gonna be a chunk of voters that are going to end up voting in the R primary on 2/20 and unable to vote in the D Primary on 2/27.

LOL, is Chuck Todd really that much of a fat moron? If you're going to operate under ridiculous assumptions, then it would be a much better one to split them the same way as IA, not Bernie's quasi home state.

He probably is.. but here's the tweets that inspired my comments on him..

"A little back of the envelope math for SC Dem primary: if Sanders wins 61% of white vote (as he did in NH) he needs 43% of black vote to win

Will have a lot more on the math to focus on in both races on tomorrow's @meetthepress

In the last NBC/WSJ/Marist SC poll, Clinton led Sanders among blacks 74-17... he has a lot of work to do."

Guys like Chuck Todd are in the business of creating horseraces. It's more exciting that way. Todd probably has his MTP job until Luke Russert gets seasoned enough to that that job.

Todd's the guy that bitched all night during IA that "Hillary declared too victory too early" or some BS like that.

What exactly is you guys' problem with what he said. He didn't say, or assume, that Sanders would get certain demographic numbers. He said "if this, then this." Is he wrong or not about that statement. If he's not, you have no basis for such harsh (and probably ignorant) criticism.

[Eraserhead]

Lol whites are not voting for Clinton ARRRRGGG.

You know SC whites are different to NH and IA whites don't you? I don't expect Clinton to win whites in the end, but it won't be the blow-out it was in those contests.

Chuck Todd trying to do envelope math and starting by giving Sanders the same % of whites in SC and NH is amusingly stupid.

Plus, there's gonna be a chunk of voters that are going to end up voting in the R primary on 2/20 and unable to vote in the D Primary on 2/27.

LOL, is Chuck Todd really that much of a fat moron? If you're going to operate under ridiculous assumptions, then it would be a much better one to split them the same way as IA, not Bernie's quasi home state.

New Hampshire is not Bernie's quasi home state.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

How did ARG do with NH polling? Yea not so well (Sanders leading by only single digits). If TRUMP wins here it's done , it's over he's the nominee.

[RBH]

ARG did put out a Sanders 54/Clinton 38 poll as their final NH poll.

Suffolk and Monmonth had it at Sanders +9 or +10.

And considering some polls had Sanders up by 30 going into the primary, one could indict at least half the NH pollsters for not getting reasonably close to +22.

[Eraserhead]

ARG did put out a Sanders 54/Clinton 38 poll as their final NH poll.

Nope, ARG's final poll was Sanders 53/Clinton 44. They were way off.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

[RBH]

oh okay, didn't notice that poll came in late...

i'd imagine the people answering phone calls from strangers the day before the NH primary to be slightly different than an overall population

[Terry the Fat Shark]

They were way off on the dem side but their GOP one was one of the most accurate

[A Perez]

Sanders is toast in SC.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nooooo!!! Not ARG!