NV-TargetPoint Consulting/Washington Free Beacon: Sanders & Clinton tied at 45%

[Holmes]

Sanders supporters eating these numbers up from a right-wing firm is funny but expected because they believe every other right-wing attack against Clinton.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If he does win, he'll have a week to close the gap in SC. SC will be interesting.

He's not winning SC.

[Shadows]

I feel the best result he can get is a 7-8% loss in SC which will be good for him but he needs to do better with blacks.

Sanders fans are sane enough to point out that some of the questions are leading & maybe be anti-Clinton. Having said that they are not delusional & don't brand all her misdemeanors as Right wing attack.

No Sanders fans is accepting this 100% unless similar polls come but is is somewhat encouraging & as per expectations. Nevada should be close.

[Holmes]

Sure, but conducted by Free Beacon, a known-right wing firm, and tweeted out all giddy by America Rising, a known-right wing PAC. If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck...

[Gass3268]

Sure, but conducted by Free Beacon, a known-right wing firm, and tweeted out all giddy by America Rising, a known-right wing PAC. If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck...

I think everyone is starving for numbers on both NV and SC, for both races. Hopefully we see more by early next week.

[A Perez]

Here is the poll.

It does seem that Hillary does not have much of an Hispanic firewall. So that leaves the black firewall for her, which will be tested in SC. She might end up being in serious trouble in CA, although I suspect she will do well with the Asian vote, who might not be so keen on Bernie's left wing economics.

The poll chief is a former Republican Party official

"In 2002, Michael was the executive director of the Michigan Republican Party. During his tenure, Republicans maintained a majority in the State Senate, increased their majority in the State House, retained the Secretary of State’s office, preserved a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and, for the first time in forty years, Michigan voters elected a Republican Attorney General.

Prior to his work at the Michigan Republican Party, Michael worked as the director of former Michigan Lieutenant Governor Dick Posthumus’s political action committee. He also served in a number of roles in the Michigan Legislature including chief of staff to the Chairman of Technology and Energy Committee and as finance director of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee. Michael’s work on Presidential campaigns began in 1996 as a field representative for the Dole-Kemp campaign.” http://www.targetpointconsulting.com/pages/executive_team

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Here is the poll.

It does seem that Hillary does not have much of an Hispanic firewall. So that leaves the black firewall for her, which will be tested in SC. She might end up being in serious trouble in CA, although I suspect she will do well with the Asian vote, who might not be so keen on Bernie's left wing economics.

The poll chief is a former Republican Party official

"In 2002, Michael was the executive director of the Michigan Republican Party. During his tenure, Republicans maintained a majority in the State Senate, increased their majority in the State House, retained the Secretary of State’s office, preserved a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and, for the first time in forty years, Michigan voters elected a Republican Attorney General.

Prior to his work at the Michigan Republican Party, Michael worked as the director of former Michigan Lieutenant Governor Dick Posthumus’s political action committee. He also served in a number of roles in the Michigan Legislature including chief of staff to the Chairman of Technology and Energy Committee and as finance director of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee. Michael’s work on Presidential campaigns began in 1996 as a field representative for the Dole-Kemp campaign.” http://www.targetpointconsulting.com/pages/executive_team

Sounds like he has vast experience in the politicsl realm.

Great news!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Clinton loses NV, she still will win 60/40 in every Southern Primaryc she clinches nomimation if she rolls SC, which she will.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So a Republican firm conducted a poll of the Democratic caucuses but didn't bother to to do one for the Republican ones?
Seems legit.

[Torie]

So a Republican firm conducted a poll of the Democratic caucuses but didn't bother to to do one for the Republican ones?
Seems legit.

In your heart, you know that Hillary is not going to win the nomination right? Can't you just feel it? The coup de grace will be when the polls show Bernie a much stronger candidate against the Pub than Hillary will be. Anyway, add this to my long list of wrong predictions if you like, that you can copy and paste at my expense later.

[A Perez]

Here is the poll.

It does seem that Hillary does not have much of an Hispanic firewall. So that leaves the black firewall for her, which will be tested in SC. She might end up being in serious trouble in CA, although I suspect she will do well with the Asian vote, who might not be so keen on Bernie's left wing economics.

The poll chief is a former Republican Party official

"In 2002, Michael was the executive director of the Michigan Republican Party. During his tenure, Republicans maintained a majority in the State Senate, increased their majority in the State House, retained the Secretary of State’s office, preserved a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and, for the first time in forty years, Michigan voters elected a Republican Attorney General.

Prior to his work at the Michigan Republican Party, Michael worked as the director of former Michigan Lieutenant Governor Dick Posthumus’s political action committee. He also served in a number of roles in the Michigan Legislature including chief of staff to the Chairman of Technology and Energy Committee and as finance director of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee. Michael’s work on Presidential campaigns began in 1996 as a field representative for the Dole-Kemp campaign.” http://www.targetpointconsulting.com/pages/executive_team

Sounds like he has vast experience in the politicsl realm.

Great news!

Experienced or not, he is a Republican, and Republicans have made it clear that they wish Sanders wins the nomination. The RNC chief constantly tweets pro-Bernie, anti-Hillary stuff and Karl Rove's Super Pac has been rooting for Sanders as well. Republicans' support for Bernie has been in the news. Im surprised that you claim not to know this fact: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-19/republican-operatives-are-trying-to-help-bernie-sanders

[°Leprechaun]

Here is the poll.

It does seem that Hillary does not have much of an Hispanic firewall. So that leaves the black firewall for her, which will be tested in SC. She might end up being in serious trouble in CA, although I suspect she will do well with the Asian vote, who might not be so keen on Bernie's left wing economics.

The poll chief is a former Republican Party official

"In 2002, Michael was the executive director of the Michigan Republican Party. During his tenure, Republicans maintained a majority in the State Senate, increased their majority in the State House, retained the Secretary of State’s office, preserved a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and, for the first time in forty years, Michigan voters elected a Republican Attorney General.

Prior to his work at the Michigan Republican Party, Michael worked as the director of former Michigan Lieutenant Governor Dick Posthumus’s political action committee. He also served in a number of roles in the Michigan Legislature including chief of staff to the Chairman of Technology and Energy Committee and as finance director of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee. Michael’s work on Presidential campaigns began in 1996 as a field representative for the Dole-Kemp campaign.” http://www.targetpointconsulting.com/pages/executive_team

Sounds like he has vast experience in the politicsl realm.

Great news!

Experienced or not, he is a Republican, and Republicans have made it clear that they wish Sanders wins the nomination. The RNC chief constantly tweets pro-Bernie, anti-Hillary stuff and Karl Rove's Super Pac has been rooting for Sanders as well. Republicans' support for Bernie has been in the news. Im surprised that you claim not to know this fact: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-19/republican-operatives-are-trying-to-help-bernie-sanders

Be careful what you wish for Republicans, you just might get it.

[A Perez]

Here is the poll.

It does seem that Hillary does not have much of an Hispanic firewall. So that leaves the black firewall for her, which will be tested in SC. She might end up being in serious trouble in CA, although I suspect she will do well with the Asian vote, who might not be so keen on Bernie's left wing economics.

The poll chief is a former Republican Party official

"In 2002, Michael was the executive director of the Michigan Republican Party. During his tenure, Republicans maintained a majority in the State Senate, increased their majority in the State House, retained the Secretary of State’s office, preserved a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and, for the first time in forty years, Michigan voters elected a Republican Attorney General.

Prior to his work at the Michigan Republican Party, Michael worked as the director of former Michigan Lieutenant Governor Dick Posthumus’s political action committee. He also served in a number of roles in the Michigan Legislature including chief of staff to the Chairman of Technology and Energy Committee and as finance director of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee. Michael’s work on Presidential campaigns began in 1996 as a field representative for the Dole-Kemp campaign.” http://www.targetpointconsulting.com/pages/executive_team

Sounds like he has vast experience in the politicsl realm.

Great news!

Experienced or not, he is a Republican, and Republicans have made it clear that they wish Sanders wins the nomination. The RNC chief constantly tweets pro-Bernie, anti-Hillary stuff and Karl Rove's Super Pac has been rooting for Sanders as well. Republicans' support for Bernie has been in the news. Im surprised that you claim not to know this fact: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-19/republican-operatives-are-trying-to-help-bernie-sanders

Be careful what you wish for Republicans, you just might get it.

Update: A member of the fivethirtyeight website just urged caution regarding the republican ties of this firm: https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/698197153982849024

[Landslide Lyndon]

So a Republican firm conducted a poll of the Democratic caucuses but didn't bother to to do one for the Republican ones?
Seems legit.

In your heart, you know that Hillary is not going to win the nomination right? Can't you just feel it? The coup de grace will be when the polls show Bernie a much stronger candidate against the Pub than Hillary will be. Anyway, add this to my long list of wrong predictions if you like, that you can copy and paste at my expense later.

Um, are you hitting on me Torie?

[HillOfANight]

It's obvious this was a push poll with all the garbage about the Clinton Foundation.

[This account no longer in use.]

It's obvious this was a push poll with all the garbage about the Clinton Foundation.

Agreed. I'd wait until new NV polls come out from reliable sources.

[CatoMinor]

I'm sure Clinton is ahead among people who will actually show up, but an upset in NV could be YUGE.

[Brittain33]

In your heart, you know that Hillary is not going to win the nomination right? Can't you just feel it?

Honestly? It just doesn't feel that way to me. I was a Hillary supporter in 2008 and I remember when it was clear Obama was going to take it and Hillary was just fighting a long and painful rearguard action. If Sanders surprises in SC, then maybe I'll feel it. But he's just not Obama, and to me he doesn't have what it takes to actually win the nomination.

[Torie]

In your heart, you know that Hillary is not going to win the nomination right? Can't you just feel it?

Honestly? It just doesn't feel that way to me. I was a Hillary supporter in 2008 and I remember when it was clear Obama was going to take it and Hillary was just fighting a long and painful rearguard action. If Sanders surprises in SC, then maybe I'll feel it. But he's just not Obama, and to me he doesn't have what it takes to actually win the nomination.

Hillary has more baggage this time, and Bernie is an estimable human being. Sure, some of his ideas are kookie, but folks know the nutter stuff will never become law. I think Hillary is in real trouble myself. We shall see.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as she can keep NV relatively close and doesnt go into SC with a 60/40 defeat, shes going to win SC.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

In your heart, you know that Hillary is not going to win the nomination right? Can't you just feel it?

Honestly? It just doesn't feel that way to me. I was a Hillary supporter in 2008 and I remember when it was clear Obama was going to take it and Hillary was just fighting a long and painful rearguard action. If Sanders surprises in SC, then maybe I'll feel it. But he's just not Obama, and to me he doesn't have what it takes to actually win the nomination.

Hillary has more baggage this time, and Bernie is an estimable human being. Sure, some of his ideas are kookie, but folks know the nutter stuff will never become law. I think Hillary is in real trouble myself. We shall see.

I don't think people actually get that. If you did a survey asking people how the government works, what percentage could answer correctly?

And even if I'm wrong, the nuttier stuff seems to be what's earning Bernie his support. So it means something to people... for what reason I'm not sure.

[/]

[psychprofessor]

In your heart, you know that Hillary is not going to win the nomination right? Can't you just feel it?

Honestly? It just doesn't feel that way to me. I was a Hillary supporter in 2008 and I remember when it was clear Obama was going to take it and Hillary was just fighting a long and painful rearguard action. If Sanders surprises in SC, then maybe I'll feel it. But he's just not Obama, and to me he doesn't have what it takes to actually win the nomination.

I had that sinking feeling before Super Tuesday with that Kennedy endorsement that the establishment was turning against her...and then when she won Super Tuesday but they had the same amount of delegates you knew deep down that it wasn't going to end well.

It feels so different to me this time. Sanders can win but she still breaks even with delegates and I feel like when Super Tuesday and bigger states get involved she will have clear victories in SC, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia etc...) I think she will take a lead in delegates after the 3/15 primaries.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bill Clinton and Clybourn are waiting to welcome Clinton in SC

[Beet]

So a Republican firm conducted a poll of the Democratic caucuses but didn't bother to to do one for the Republican ones?
Seems legit.

In your heart, you know that Hillary is not going to win the nomination right? Can't you just feel it? The coup de grace will be when the polls show Bernie a much stronger candidate against the Pub than Hillary will be. Anyway, add this to my long list of wrong predictions if you like, that you can copy and paste at my expense later.

I feel it, Torie. I agree with you 100%.

I suppose the hard core Clinton supporter in me wants to think she still has a chance if she basically adopts his platform wholesale, and directly addresses the trustworthiness accusations against her, but even then she'd be accused of changing her position, but she'd still have a shot.

Otherwise, this thing could be effectively over sooner than we think.