NH-Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald: Trump 31% Cruz 16%; Sanders 51% Clinton 44%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Hillary fans buying this Angry Woman stuff, rofl....

I think Hillary fans are getting trolled!!!!

As somebody whose secondary residence is in New Hampshire, I can confirm that there are many, many angry women here.

This is getting ridiculous. Creating a separate bloc for angry women, god knows how you judge who is angry!!! It's fun, the guy did a lot of stats n stuff, nice job! Kudos

Stop being judgemental, you don't understand ANGRY WOMEN

[pikachu]

If Cruz can somehow get second because of the establishment split, I can see the media spinning this for him like Rubio's third in Iowa.

[Torie]

TN volunteer is there a specific place on the exit poll where women can designate that they are indeed angry to distinguish themselves from not angry women?

Well, the angry womens' vote has decided pretty much every election in NH since the 90s (except maybe 2004-SEN and 2012-PRES). Let's take a look at past exit poll data:

2014:

Angry women (27%): Jeanne Shaheen 84%, Scott Brown 16%
Young voters (11%): Jeanne Shaheen 58%, Scott Brown 42%
Others (62%): Scott Brown 63%, Jeanne Shaheen 37%

Final result: Jeanne Shaheen 51.5%, Scott Brown 48.5%

It's shocking how well Brown did despite losing the angry women's vote by 68 points. There is no doubt in my mind that a Senator named John Shaheen would have lost reelection in 2014.

2000:

Angry women (20%): Al Gore 53%, George W. Bush 45% (!!)
Young voters (18%): Al Gore 51%, George W. Bush 38%
Others (62%): George W. Bush 54%, Al Gore 43%

Final result: Bush 48.1%, Gore 46.8%

Bush got 45% of the angry womens vote (due to the backlash against the Levinsky scandal), which was enough for him to eke out a narrow win.

2012:

Angry women (22%): Barack Obama 64%, Mitt Romney 36%
Young voters (19%): Barack Obama 62%, Mitt Romney 34%
Others (59%): Mitt Romney 53%, Barack Obama 44%

Final result: Barack Obama 52%, Mitt Romney 46%

With no woman on the ballot, Romney did better with angry women, but still not enough to even make it close. The abortion and Bain issue really hurt him here. Fun fact: Even if he had somehow managed to get 45% of the angry womens vote, he still would have lost the state with 48.3% of the vote. That's why the 2012 results basically show you that NH is not winnable for Republicans anymore, especially not if a woman is on top of the ticket. The combination of angry women, Democratic young voters and influx of VT/MA/NY residents into NH is rapidly turning the state into New Vermont. Anyway,

My guess for Tuesday:

Angry women (33%?!?!): Hillary Clinton 81%, Bernie Sanders 19%
Young voters (18%): Bernie Sanders 80%, Hillary Clinton 20%
Others (49%): Bernie Sanders 60%, Hillary Clinton 40%

Final result: Hillary Clinton 49.93%, Bernie Sanders 50.07%

Because of the growing influence of young voters (see also: NH-PRES 2012), Sanders might, just might eke out a razor-thin victory despite losing the angry womens vote by 62 points (which is still better than how Scott Brown did in 2014!).
 
TL;DR:
If Sanders gets less than 17% of the angry womens vote (which is definitely possible), there is no realistic way he can win New Hampshire. And he better hope that they don't comprise more than 33% of the electorate, otherwise he's toast.

How did you infer the percentages of "angry women?"

[Mehmentum]

If Clinton miraculously wins, all posters will have to adopt TNvolunteer's 3 Demographic polling.  Angry Women v. Young voters v. Others will become mainstream.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sanders probably up by 7-10 points. More than that seems too high. But, hes probably not gonna win NV or SC anyways,he would need a 60-35 win to open up that possibility, that hes not gonna get.

[Shadows]

Sanders probably up by 7-10 points. More than that seems too high. But, hes probably not gonna win NV or SC anyways,he would need a 60-35 win to open up that possibility, that hes not gonna get.

Personally I don't believe a 40 margin victory would guarantee victory in Nevada & SC. Any victory above 10% is a big one for me & will break the duck & give momentum.

Nevada & SC are different issues. Clinton will win SC easily IMO but Nevada is winnable for the Sanders but not just because of a big victory in NH.