PADems 2006 Senate Thread

[PADem]

California

Prediction: Safe Democrat

Feinstein, although she will be old (73 I think come election day), is pretty much unbeatable. No real Republicans have yet thrown their hats in and there are not many with a chance. Notable Republicans such as Rep. Darrell Issa may run but will perform poory. A run by Gov. Schwarzenegger could make it tight but this will not happen.

Tennessee

Prediction: Lean Republican

This open seat, due to bill Frist's retirement will likely stay GOP. Possibly Republicans that may run include Former Governor Candidate Van Hilleary and also Former Rep. Ed Bryant. Rep Zach Wamp has thrown his hat in the ring and I believe will probably come out winning the primary.

Harold Ford will be the likely candidate  for the Democrats and should make this race closer, especially if he can energise the African-American vote and appeal to moderates.

Massachussets

Prediction: Safe Democrat

Ted Kennedy, although old, will run again, and will win solidly.
Only Republicans in with a chance seem to be Democrat Seats. Only one with a chance will likely be Calducci (ambassador to Canada) and Mitt Romney, but I doubt either will run.

Indiana

Prediction: Strong Lean Republican

Richard Lugar is getting on a bit and may quit come 2006. However I don't think this is likely yet. If Lugar runs then it falls into Safe Republican status, unless a candidate of Bayh's stature presents him/herself which will not likely.

If Lugar quits it could be slightly more competitive but I doubt there is anyone who thinks this could be a Dem pickup, even in an open seat.


Pennsylvania

Prediction: Lean Democrat (Pick Up)

Now I know Keystone Phil will have something to say about this which I'm braced for. However current Senator Santorum has the unfortunate position of being both one of the most liked and most hated politicians in the state (country even).

State Treasurer Casey will end up being the Dem nominee, and the party seems united behind him.

West Virginia

Prediction: Safe Democrat

Despite his advancing age, the Dean of the Senate will run for yet another term in my opinion. However it will be his last.

Rep. Capito could be a Republican challenger, but would lose to Byrd, however the seat would be competitive if Byrd calls it quits this time around.

If it is open we could see a run from Rep. Nich Rachall on the Democrat side - this race would have a slight lean Republican though..


Mississippi

Prediction: Safe Republican

Trent Lott will not lose this race. Period.

If however he decides to quit the race could become more competitve.

If he does then Rep. Pickering will easily become the Republican Nominee, with Former Attorney General Moore as the Democratic challenger. Even Given Misssissippi's ideology an open seat race would have only a slight lean GOP if Moore was to run.

Michigan

Prediction: Slight Lean Democrat

Stabenow isn't faring well and will likely be one of the GOP's top targets come 2006. The only reason this race is not a toss-up in my mind is the fact that there is no one Republican that has been united behind. Possibly Republican challengers include Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, Sec. of State Terry Lynn and former Detroit Councilman Keith Butler.


Arizona

Prediction: Strong Lean Republican

Kyl is safe, despite the fact that Arizona is a rather moderate state - McCain and Napolitano are good examples of this. No real Democrat opposition has been announced. A run by Gov. Napolitano would be interesting, but won't happen.


Delaware

Prediction: Safe Democrat

Carper is safe here. State Senator Bonini is the only possible candidate I've heard about but I doubt he has even a remote chance.

Maine

Prediction: Safe Republican

Olympia Snowe - the states most popular politican will run again in 2006 and win. She may face a primary challenge, but will come through this and win in the general against whoever the Democrats put up.

[Moooooo]

Tennessee

Prediction: Strong Lean Republican

This open seat, due to bill Frist's retirement will likely stay GOP. Possibly Republicans that may run include Former Governor Candidate Van Hilleary and also Former Rep. Ed Bryant. Rep Zach Wamp has thrown his hat in the ring and I believe will probably come out winning the primary.

No big name Democrats have put their names in the ring, Harold Ford is the only one with a real chance, hence the strong lean and not safe classification, but I doubt he'll run.

Ford's in...

[nini2287]

I see you tackled the tough races like California and Massachusetts first

[PADem]

Wisconsin

Prediction: Strong Lean Democrat

Herb Kohl will run for re-election and will win, but no landslides here.

There are a lot of possible challengers as far as I know, but the most likely one to have a chance is Secretary Thompson - the popular former governor. Such a race would be a tossup, but Kohl is more likely to win given the advantage of Incumbency.


Utah

Prediction: Safe Republican

Orrin Hatch will stay on for another term, and win convincingly.
Utah's Democratic Party is not doing very well and the only possible challenger to be in with a half a chance is Rep. Jim Matheson of the 2nd District, however Hatch is more than safe. Even if Hatch quits this seat will stay Republican.

New Mexico

Prediction: Strong Lean Democrat

Bingaman will win this. Rep. Wilson could be the challenger but will not win, however it will be closer than in previous elections. Could be close if Bingaman was retiring. More likely than Wilson to formally annouce is Santa Fe City Councilman David Pfeffer - who recently switched from the Democratic Party to the Republican party and may draw some votes away.


Texas

Prediction: Strong Lean Republican

Rumour has it that KBH has her eyes on the Governors chair (isn't Lt. Gov better in Texas anyways) so may quit to run for that office.

I confess to having no idea of the Democratic challenger, but its Safe Republican if KBH does run for re-election, Strong Lean GOP if  she doesn't.

Minnesota

Prediction: Toss-Up (Possibly GOP Pickup)

Senator Dayton is not running and thus this is an open seat. Republican Representative Mark Kennedy is a strong candidate and will make this race very competitive.

Other people to have put there names in the ring include State Supreme Court Justice Alan Page and State Senator Steve Kelley. If I was betting I'd side with the Dems on this one but right now its too close to call.

Missouri

Prediction: Slight Lean Republican

Senator Talent Will be a target for the Democrats but is unlikely to roll. However it will be close. Most likely Dem nomineew will be Sec. of State Carnahan, son of the late governor and the former Senator that Talent beat, also Lt. Governor Joe Maxwell, or possibly Claire McCaskill. Could be close but Talent will win in the end.

Michagan

Prediction: Slight Lean Democrat

I think Stabenow will keep this seat, if only because a strong Republican challenger has yet to materialise. If one does she could be given a run for her money, but for now she is relatively safe.

Conneticut

Prediction: Safe Democrat

Liberman will run, and do very well. The moderate senator is well liked by both Republicans and Democrats and will win easily whoever the challenger may be.

New York

Prediction: Strong Lean Democrat

Senator Clinton will win this despite debate about a possible presidential run in 2008. Only challenger who could unseat her would be Rudy Guliani, but he is not likely to run. If he does, he will win in a close race, otherwise Clinton is safe.

Most likely GOP nominee for now is Ed Cox - President Nixon's son -in-law.



Wyoming

Prediction: Safe Republican

Senator Thomas is safe here, no matter who the Democrats present.

Washington

Prediction: Slight Lean Democrat

Maria Cantwell did not win big last time and is on shaky ground this year. Possible Republican challengers could include Dino Rossi - the failed gubernatorial candidate from 2004 although Jennifer Dunn could be convinced to run and Nethercutt - who was  defeated in the 2004 senate race. may give it another go. For now I think Cantwell will pull through, but this may well become a GOP pickup.

Virginia

Prediction: Lean Republican

George Allen is safe here, UNLESS Governor Mark Warner decides to run for the Senate seat. If so, this becomes a toss-up, otherwise its safe Republican. Both men however seem to harbour Presidential ambitions so who knows.

Rhode Island

Prediction: Lean RINO

Lincoln Chafee should retain this seat. As possibly the Dems best friend in the senate, he is unlikely to be challenged seriously, although a large portion of the Rhode Island electorate appears undecided. A challenge by Rep. Patrick Kennedy could mean a close race, but it appears Kennedy isn't going anywhere.

Vermont

Prediction: Safe Independent

With independent Senator Jeffords retiring, this race is now open. Openly 'Socialist' congressman Bernie Sanders is the candidate of the left, as such the Democrats won't put up a  candidate against him. The GOP challenger could be Lt. Governor Brian Dubie, or businessman Richard Tarrant, but neither will stand a chance. Governor Douglas would be the strongest challenger but would likely still lose.


Maryland

Prediction: Lean Democrat

With veteran Senator Sarbanes announcing his retirment the Democratic field is way open. Possibe Democrat nominees include Rep. Ben Cardin, former Rep. and former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume. On the Republican side Lt. Governor Steele looks the likely candidate, although don't count out Alan Keyes from running, or State. Sen E.J Pipkin. Generally the Democrat will win regardless, but a candidate like Mfume may make it tighter than usual.

Florida

Prediction: Slight Lean Democrat

Senator Nelson is unfortunately a Democrat in a right moving state.  He should be fine, former Sec. of State Katherine Harris may challenge him, but otherwise none of the other possible candidates will have a chance.

New Jersey

Prediction: Lean Democrat

With Senator Corzine running for Governor in 2005 this race is wide open. Assuming he wins the gubernatorial election, he will have the right to name his sucessor, possibly acting Gov. Richard Codey or Rep. Frank Pallone. Regardless, State Senator Tom Kean appears a strong Republican challenger.

Montana

Prediction: Slight Lean Republican

The Democratic party has enjoyed a resurgency in Montana, taking the governors mansion, the legislature and now most offices statewide. Senator Burns will likely win against his Democrat opponent - at this stage likely to be any of State Auditor John Morrisson, State Senator John Tester, or Attorney General Mike McGrath. I assume the Democrats will focus a lot of attention on this state, hence only the slight lean A run by Gov. Schweitzer could be competitive, even though he lost last time, but this is unlikely.

Ohio

Prediction: Lean Republican

Mike DeWine is relatively safe in this seat. Possible candidates include current Cleveland Mayor Jane Campbell, Rep. Dennis Kucinich ( i hope not), former candidate State Sen Eric Fingerhut, and even possibly talk show host and former Cincinnati Mayor Jerry Springer - although none of these will pose serious competition.

Nevada

Prediction: Strong Lean Republican

Will need some help with this one as I know squat about Nevada politics. From what I hear Ensign will be safe though.

[Smash255]

I would change Minnesota to lean Democrat.  Dayton has stated he won't run for re-election which actually improves the Dem chances of keeping the seat

[King]

New Mexico

Prediction: Lean Democrat

Bingaman will win if he runs. Rep. Wilson could be the challenger but will not win, however it will be closer than in previous elections. Not sure what would happen if Bingaman retired though.

Bingaman said he will win run for a 5th term.  If NM has any shot at an open seat, it is with Domenici  (he will be 76 years old on Election Day '08).

[PADem]

New Mexico

Prediction: Lean Democrat

Bingaman will win if he runs. Rep. Wilson could be the challenger but will not win, however it will be closer than in previous elections. Not sure what would happen if Bingaman retired though.

Bingaman said he will win run for a 5th term.  If NM has any shot at an open seat, it is with Domenici  (he will be 76 years old on Election Day '08).

Thanks. Changed to Strong Lean Democrat to reflect this.

[PADem]

I would change Minnesota to lean Democrat.  Dayton has stated he won't run for re-election which actually improves the Dem chances of keeping the seat

I'm in two minds about this. Will check out some polling and then change later. Thanks for the info though. Will amend.

[King]

New Mexico

Prediction: Strong Lean Democrat

Bingaman will win this. Rep. Wilson could be the challenger but will not win, however it will be closer than in previous elections. Could be close if Bingaman wasn't retiring.

Don't you mean was?  "Could be close if Bingaman was retiring."

[PADem]

Yep. Corrected this. Thanks

[nini2287]

Washington

Prediction: Slight Lean Democrat

Maria Cantwell did not win big last time and is on shaky ground this year. Possible Republican challengers could include Dino Rossi - the failed gubernatorial candidate from 2004 although Jennifer Dunn could be convinced to run and Nethercutt - who Cantwell defeated in 2000 may give it another go. For now I think Cantwell will pull through, but this may well become a GOP pickup.

Cantwell beat Slade Gorton in 2000.  Nethercutt was crushed by Murray last year.

Rhode Island

Prediction: Safe RINO

Lincoln Chafee will retain this seat easily. As possibly the Dems best friend in the senate, he won't be challenged seriously. A challenge by Rep. Patrick Kennedy could mean a close race, but it appears Kennedy isn't going anywhere.

I wouldn't quite call this race safe, because althogh Chafee has 10-15 point leads, something like 27% of the voters are undecided.  I'd call it lean or slight lean to Chafee at this point.

Florida

Prediction: Slight Lean Democrat

Senator Nelson is unfortunately a Democrat in a right moving state.  He should be fine, former Sec. of State Katherine Harris may challenge him, but otherwise none of the other possible candidates will have a chance.

  Katherine Harris is the GOP's weakest candidate, and fortuntely the one favored to win the primary.  If one of the other rumored candidates (Crist, Gallagher, Jennings-those 3 are more likely to run for Gov.,  Foley or Weldon) runs, it becomes a toss-up.

Overall, I pretty much agree with you.  Nice analysis.

[King]

Nethercutt was crushed by Murray last year.

I wouldn't call 55-43 being crushed compared to Chucks Grassley and Schumer winning over 70% of the vote.

[PADem]

Thanks Nini 2287, have updated these, minus Florida, which I'll do when I find some polling.