NH-UMass Lowell/7 News Daily Tracking Poll Thread

[Landslide Lyndon]

Democrats:
Sanders — 61 (-2)
Clinton — 32 (+2)
O'Malley* — 1 (No Change)

HILLMENTUM!!!

The socialist codger from Vermont crumbles after his failure to win Iowa.
Soon his campaign will stink like yesterday's fish.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I know NH likes to be contrarian... but it'll be interesting to see what happens to Trump by the weekend.

[Tender Branson]

Democrats:
Sanders — 61 (-2)
Clinton — 32 (+2)
O'Malley* — 1 (No Change)

HILLMENTUM!!!

The socialist codger from Vermont crumbles after his failure to win Iowa.
Soon his campaign will stink like yesterday's fish.

MoE movement, nothing else.

Bernie will perform strongly in NH, but I'll doubt it will be anywhere near what this poll shows.

[RJEvans]

Democrats:
Sanders — 61 (-2)
Clinton — 32 (+2)
O'Malley* — 1 (No Change)

HILLMENTUM!!!

The socialist codger from Vermont crumbles after his failure to win Iowa.
Soon his campaign will stink like yesterday's fish.

MoE movement, nothing else.

Bernie will perform strongly in NH, but I'll doubt it will be anywhere near what this poll shows.

Idk, I think a 20+ point win for Sanders will happen. I'll prefer if it's closer, within 10 points so that the narrative isn't a Sanders blowout but a strong Clinton closer. But I wouldn't be surprised if this race is called for Bernie as soon as polls close.

[HillOfANight]

Democrats:
Sanders — 61 (-2)
Clinton — 32 (+2)
O'Malley* — 1 (No Change)

HILLMENTUM!!!

The socialist codger from Vermont crumbles after his failure to win Iowa.
Soon his campaign will stink like yesterday's fish.

MoE movement, nothing else.

Bernie will perform strongly in NH, but I'll doubt it will be anywhere near what this poll shows.

https://twitter.com/PodcastObsessed/status/694860438727585792
The Hillmentum includes results before the Iowa results. She's going to close the gap.

[Gass3268]

Democrats:
Sanders — 61 (-2)
Clinton — 32 (+2)
O'Malley* — 1 (No Change)

HILLMENTUM!!!

The socialist codger from Vermont crumbles after his failure to win Iowa.
Soon his campaign will stink like yesterday's fish.

MoE movement, nothing else.

Bernie will perform strongly in NH, but I'll doubt it will be anywhere near what this poll shows.

https://twitter.com/PodcastObsessed/status/694860438727585792
The Hillmentum includes results before the Iowa results. She's going to close the gap.

So the results of a tied results are going to lead to close the gap?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Lol Sanders is not winning NH by 33, though the reaction around here would be pretty hilarious if he did.

Bernie supporter here. Yeah, no. There's no way Bernie is leading by 33 percent. Maybe 20%, but nowhere near 33%.

What are the more reliable NH polling firms?

[Eraserhead]

Democrats:
Sanders — 61 (-2)
Clinton — 32 (+2)
O'Malley* — 1 (No Change)

Yep, only 29 points to go.

HILLMENTUM!!!

The socialist codger from Vermont crumbles after his failure to win Iowa.
Soon his campaign will stink like yesterday's fish.

MoE movement, nothing else.

Bernie will perform strongly in NH, but I'll doubt it will be anywhere near what this poll shows.

https://twitter.com/PodcastObsessed/status/694860438727585792
The Hillmentum includes results before the Iowa results. She's going to close the gap.

[Mr. Morden]

Today's update:

http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-4%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230668.pdf

Dems:

Sanders 58%
Clinton 36%

GOP:

Trump 36%
Rubio 15%
Cruz 14%
Bush 8%
Kasich 7%
Christie 5%
Carson 4%
Fiorina 3%

[eric82oslo]

Today's update:

http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-4%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230668.pdf

GOP:

Trump 36%
Rubio 15%
Cruz 14%
Bush 8%
Kasich 7%
Christie 5%
Carson 4%
Fiorina 3%

Looks like Fiorina will drop out sometime next week.

[Sorenroy]

This poll was conducted over a three day period from 2/1/2016-2/3/2016. This means that the next poll will be the first to be conducted fully after the Iowa Caucuses.

Change from yesterday:

Democrats:
Clinton — +4
Sanders — -3

Clinton now leads people over the age of 65 52-40, and post graduate degree educated 49-44. She is behind in all other groups with 18-29 year olds being her worst at 87-13 (zero undecided) Sanders.

Republicans:
Rubio  — +3
Carson — +1
Ted Cruz — ±0
Kasich — ±0
Fiorina — ±0
Bush — -1
Christie — -1
Trump — -2

Undecided has doubled since the last poll, in part for continuing drop outs, and now stands at 8% for the Republican Party. Donald Trump leads his opponents in every question they asked.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This poll was conducted over a three day period from 2/1/2016-2/3/2016. This means that the next poll will be the first to be conducted fully after the Iowa Caucuses.

Change from yesterday:

Democrats:
Clinton — +4
Sanders — -3

Clinton now leads people over the age of 65 52-40, and post graduate degree educated 49-44. She is behind in all other groups with 18-29 year olds being her worst at 87-13 (zero undecided) Sanders.

Great news! The socialist codger from Vermont is crashing and burning like an Air Malaysia plane over the Indian Ocean.

[Badger]

This poll was conducted over a three day period from 2/1/2016-2/3/2016. This means that the next poll will be the first to be conducted fully after the Iowa Caucuses.

Change from yesterday:

Democrats:
Clinton — +4
Sanders — -3

Clinton now leads people over the age of 65 52-40, and post graduate degree educated 49-44. She is behind in all other groups with 18-29 year olds being her worst at 87-13 (zero undecided) Sanders.

Great news! The socialist codger from Vermont is crashing and burning like an Air Malaysia plane over the Indian Ocean.

Classy

[Tender Branson]

This poll was conducted over a three day period from 2/1/2016-2/3/2016. This means that the next poll will be the first to be conducted fully after the Iowa Caucuses.

Change from yesterday:

Democrats:
Clinton — +4
Sanders — -3

Clinton now leads people over the age of 65 52-40, and post graduate degree educated 49-44. She is behind in all other groups with 18-29 year olds being her worst at 87-13 (zero undecided) Sanders.

Great news! The socialist codger from Vermont is crashing and burning like an Air Malaysia plane over the Indian Ocean.

No. UMass Lowell was the only poll to have Sanders above 60 and showing the biggest margin.

It's only back to normal.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Will be interesting to see how the town hall and debate impact things

[mencken]

Comparing to the previous three-day period, Rubio has shot up seven points, with support coming roughly evenly from all major candidates except Cruz. Good news for Trump and Rubio, bad news for Cruz (who theoretically should be getting Trump's soft support)

[Lief 🗽]

Wow! Looks like Sanders is collapsing here. No wonder his campaign has gone so negative.

[rob in cal]

    If I was rooting for a Trump collapse I'd be most concerned that his "definite" supporters level seems to be holding pretty firm, in spite of his second place Iowa finish, which to some commentators out there should somehow be sending a signal that his supporters should abandon ship.

[Eraserhead]

Well the Democratic numbers actually look kind of realistic now (maybe still a little bit too pro-Sanders).

[Mr. Morden]

Today's update (got this off of WHDH's live video stream):

Trump 34%
Rubio 15%
Cruz 14%
Kasich 8%
Bush 8%

I missed the Dem #s though.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, here are the full #s:

http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-5%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230845.pdf

Dems

Sanders 55%
Clinton 40%

GOP

Trump 34%
Rubio 15%
Cruz 14%
Kasich 8%
Bush 8%
Christie 5%
Carson 4%
Fiorina 3%

[Shadows]

15% is good enough. Any win over 10% is good enough for me. Hillary had a good debate and she has thrown so much mud & run negative, she was bound to go up

[Sorenroy]

This poll was conducted over a three day period from 2/2/2016-2/4/2016. This is the first fully post-debate poll. As such I will be comparing to both yesterdays poll, and their poll released 2/1/2016 which was the only one conducted fully before the Iowa Caucus (thanks Mr. Modern).

Change from yesterday/first poll:

Democrats:
Clinton — +4/+10
Sanders — -3/-6

Clinton is steadily closing the gaps amongst all groups but only actually leads two of them: 65+ year olds 54-39 and non-whites 53-45. Her worst group remains 18-29 year olds who she looses 89-11 (zero undecided) to Sanders.

Republicans:
Kasich — +1/-1
Rubio  — ±0/+7
Ted Cruz — ±0/+2
Fiorina — ±0/+1
Carson — ±0/±0
Bush — ±0/-1
Christie — ±0/-2
Trump — -2/-4

Correction: I originally had this saying that this was a post debate poll, but I meant post caucus. This has been corrected and the only mistake was my wording, not the data.

[Mr. Morden]

This poll was conducted over a three day period from 2/2/2016-2/4/2016. This is the first fully post-debate poll. As such I will be comparing to both yesterdays poll, and their poll released 2/1/2016 which was the only one conducted fully before a debate.

Debate?  Do you mean Iowa?

[Holmes]

Clinton beat New Hampshire polls in 2008 by about 10%. Any more upwards movement and Sanders might start sweating.