Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[Mike Thick]

3 votes for Gilmore!

50% INCREASE IN VICTORY LEVELS

#GILMANIA #GILMENTUM

OH NO! CRUZ IS THREATENED!

Everyone is threatened by #GILMENTUM. No one is safe.

[GLPman]

Cruz-Trump gap widens to 4%

[Andrew1]

Cruz > Trump > Rubio = disaster for GOP establishment

[pho]

Trump is in trouble.

Have to hand it to Marco Rubio, whatever he did worked.

[/]

Breaking - Turnout will set record.

[Mr. Morden]

53% now reporting:

cruz 29
trump 25
rubio 21

[Higgs]

Looks like a strong third is the best Rubio can hope for. Disaster for GOP establishment.

How is that a disaster? A strong third is what Rubio was hoping for.

[Mike Thick]

I'd just like to say US pollsters can't poll for sh*t. German exit polls are usually incredibly accurate. How does Trump up by 5-7 turn into him losing by 4?

He hasn't lost yet, but yeah, out polls are sh^t

[Sorenroy]

47% Reporting, 7 votes for Gilmore. I don't want to call it early, but I'd say that's a win.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_state/IA_Page_0201.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Figueira]

Looks like a strong third is the best Rubio can hope for. Disaster for GOP establishment.

Potentially good news for them actually.

[PaperKooper]

960/1682
Cruz 28.7%
Trump 25.1%
Rubio 21.3%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

56% reporting:

CRUZ
27,995 Votes
28.7%

TRUMP
24,449 Votes
25.1%

RUBIO
20,720 Votes
21.3%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Decision Desk at AP calling Iowa for CRUZ

[Admiral Kizaru]

Well it looks increasingly unlikely that Selzer will be correct.

End of her being the gold standard?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Looks like a strong third is the best Rubio can hope for. Disaster for GOP establishment.

Potentially good news for them actually.

Looks like a strong third is the best Rubio can hope for. Disaster for GOP establishment.

Potentially good news for them actually.

Yes.  If Cruz wins, it will be a major setback for Trump, who is the single greatest threat to mainstream conservatives.

[Leinad]

Audubon is the first GOP county fully reported:

Audubon county, IA:

Took me a while to research the data, but enjoy nonetheless:

In 2012 Santorum was a bit under his statewide average, but Gingrich, Perry and Bachman did a bit better. Overall, those 4 conservatives were 6.8 percentage points better than overall. In 2008 Huck and Thompson got about the exact same numbers as they did statewide. (I'd put Cruz, Carson, Huck, Santorum in that category this year.)

In 2012 Romney got 3% less than statewide, while in '08 the moderate crew of him, McCain, and Giuliani got slightly more than their statewide total.

Paul underperformed by about 3% each time.

Interpret that how you want.

As much of a complete creep as Cruz is, he's much better than Trump.

Cruz isn't my first choice, but he's up there. And almost anyone would be better than Donald.

100% agreed with both of these sentiments. Ron Paul was right when he called Trump "dangerous" and "un-libertarian."

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I'd just like to say US pollsters can't poll for sh*t. German exit polls are usually incredibly accurate. How does Trump up by 5-7 turn into him losing by 4?

Pollsters cheat off other pollsters and throw away polls that are against conventional wisdom.

Example: 2014 Virginia Senate race

Nearly all pollsters had Sen. Mark Warner leading by double digits. A couple of days before the election, a poll was done showing a tied race. The pollster threw the poll out because he didn't believe it.

Warner won by about 0.6%.

[Asian Nazi]

How stupid are the people of Iowa?

Apparently very stupid.  WTF

[/]

Decision Desk at AP calling Iowa for CRUZ

gat eem

[ProudModerate2]

Looks like a strong third is the best Rubio can hope for. Disaster for GOP establishment.

Potentially good news for them actually.

I agree. Rubio in the low-20% range, is very well for him ("establishment").
Very surprised with Rubio's performance.
I hope he actually surpasses Trump, and ends in 2nd place (let's hope).

[Mike Thick]

Decision Desk at AP calling Iowa for CRUZ

WOOOOOOOOOOOOO

EDIT: Changing avatar to R-TX for remainder of night.

EDIT2: Never mind

[Andrew1]

Cruz can claim to be the main anti-Trump candidate, and makes it harder for Rubio to consolidate anti-Trump support

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

61% reporting:


CRUZ
30,375 Votes
28.4%

TRUMP
26,773 Votes
25.0%

RUBIO
23,225 Votes
21.7%

[GLPman]

Wow, this is way closer than most of us predicted.

[Broken System]

In 15 minutes, Rubio has gone from 5.9% behind Trump to 3.5% behind Trump.