Predict a county map of Clinton vs Sanders in California

[Sbane]

Feeling good about my predictions. I had pretty much the same map as Holmes. I didn't predict that Hillary would win Colusa, Glenn and Sutter, but I knew the Sacramento Valley would at least be close. Didn't predict Yolo though! Just shows how overrated the student vote can be sometimes. Students many times vote back home and the professors and other staff are the ones who vote in big numbers. Add in the fact that Yolo also has a working class suburb of Sacramento and the results make sense. I totally flunked on that one though. I also didn't predict the Clinton wins in the Sierra Counties. That doesn't make too much sense to me except perhaps retirees?

[Dwarven Dragon]

AP showing 100% in everywhere. Clinton actually won both St. Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara.

[Sbane]

AP showing 100% in everywhere. Clinton actually won both St. Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara.

100% of precincts are partially reporting. There are still mail in ballots that haven't even been received by the counties.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

AP showing 100% in everywhere. Clinton actually won both St. Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara.

100% of precincts are partially reporting. There are still mail in ballots that haven't even been received by the counties.

As long as they were postmarked by Tuesday, they have another couple of days to filter in.

[Holmes]

All election day votes and most early votes are counted now, right? I don't see any counties outside a 3-4% margin flipping.

[Sbane]

Clinton's margins in Silicon Valley are astounding. Her best performance in the state was there (and Napa county oddly enough), something I didn't think would happen. I always knew she would win, but I didn't realize by this much. At least in the Bay Area, there was a huge divide by income. Alameda County was more friendly to Bernie than San Francisco. That blows my mind as well. The yuppies have gentrified San Francisco and they voted for Clinton. The former residents of San Francisco who now live in Oakland and Berkeley voted for Bernie. Also, the Silicon Valley as well as San Francisco/Marin are doing well economically. The inner East Bay is not and the vote reflected this. Looking at Contra Costa County, looks like Hillary did well in the more affluent outer East Bay as well.

[Mr. Smith]

Clinton's margins in Silicon Valley are astounding. Her best performance in the state was there (and Napa county oddly enough), something I didn't think would happen. I always knew she would win, but I didn't realize by this much. At least in the Bay Area, there was a huge divide by income. Alameda County was more friendly to Bernie than San Francisco. That blows my mind as well. The yuppies have gentrified San Francisco and they voted for Clinton. The former residents of San Francisco who now live in Oakland and Berkeley voted for Bernie. Also, the Silicon Valley as well as San Francisco/Marin are doing well economically. The inner East Bay is not and the vote reflected this. Looking at Contra Costa County, looks like Hillary did well in the more affluent outer East Bay as well.

Alameda was more friendly to Carter too in 1976 [also the only time ever that San Francisco was less Democratic], fact of the matter is Alameda has usually been the one most likely to buck the establishment.

I was right to consider that a toss-up and the closest one in the area. (Though I admit that I erroneously figured that Marin and SF would go for Sanders

And it seems I was right, the Oakland black vote was what put Hillary over the top (with Latinos, Asians, and middle classers probably narrowing besting the stereotypical poor white college guy).

I'm more surprised Alpine didn't flip to Clinton.

[politicallefty]

I think that's probably the general feel of things right now, though there could be several anomalous counties. Despite the polling having the race so close, I think Hillary will win California by high single digits (I'm thinking a 7% victory right now, pretty close to 2008).

One county where I really disagree with you is Marin. I'm familiar with it and I just don't see Hillary winning it. In fact, I think it could be Bernie's best county in the Bay Area. I could also see Alameda going either way. As far as gains from 2008, I think Hillary will definitely win Sacramento. I also think it's possible she wins Placer. If the race is indeed as close as some polls say, it'll be your map, but Hillary will lose at least Marin and Alameda. She could also lose more of the Bay Area and struggle more in the Central Valley (not including Sacramento).

As for best county for each, I think it'll be Imperial again for Hillary. As for Bernie, if it's not Santa Cruz, it'll either be Humboldt or some small county in CA-01.

I pretty much piggy-backed off of Holmes' map, which turned out quite well.  I don't know why, but I am surprised Hillary won Marin and won it very easily. Sonoma looks like it'll end up being Bernie's best county in the Bay Area, which I suppose isn't too surprising in hindsight.

I did nail Hillary's strength in the Sacramento area. I knew Sacramento County would be a very big swing her way compared to 2008. Assuming Yolo stays as is, I did not realize it was enough to overwhelm Bernie-friendly Davis. I did also predict Placer (Sacramento's more affluent suburbs and exurbs) for Hillary, but I'm surprised she won it so easily. Obviously, one big difference from 2008 is Hillary's strength among minorities, but I think what made Hillary especially strong in the Sacramento area is her strength among suburban white women. (That is partially based on personal anecdotal evidence, so take that as you will.)

As for my predictions for best county for each, where's my prize?

[Holmes]

Yeah, Santa Cruz was never going to be Sanders' best county (lots of latinos in Watsonville and affluent voters in Scotts Valley, Rio del Mar and even Aptos). It was always going to be Humboldt, right in the middle of the Emerald Triangle.

[The Night Owlditor]

Yeah, Santa Cruz was never going to be Sanders' best county (lots of latinos in Watsonville and affluent voters in Scotts Valley, Rio del Mar and even Aptos). It was always going to be Humboldt, right in the middle of the Emerald Triangle.

So is it safe to say that Bernie only got the votes of the hippies and the rural whites in the ruby red counties in Northern California? (I thought the protest vote would have been much bigger in Modoc, though.)

Also, why did he bomb so terribly in Southern California? I thought he'd at least carry Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo since Obama won them in 2008.

(Update: A friend of mine in California has informed me that Santa Barbara and SLO have now flipped to Bernie. I guess they're counting the mail-in votes now?)

[politicallefty]

Yeah, Santa Cruz was never going to be Sanders' best county (lots of latinos in Watsonville and affluent voters in Scotts Valley, Rio del Mar and even Aptos). It was always going to be Humboldt, right in the middle of the Emerald Triangle.

To be fair, I did hedge there, but Santa Cruz was a lot weaker for Bernie than I expected. I was definitely overestimating the effect of Santa Cruz itself on the county (particularly UCSC, where my cousin goes and has since moved quite a bit to the left, although I haven't talked presidential politics with him).

So is it safe to say that Bernie only got the votes of the hippies and the rural whites in the ruby red counties in Northern California? (I thought the protest vote would have been much bigger in Modoc, though.)

That might be oversimplifying it a bit, but it does appear that way. Hillary lost a lot of the rural far northern counties she won in 2008, but she performed much better in the Bay Area and Sacramento.

As for protest votes, there really aren't any areas anymore in California that are registered Democratic yet vote for Republicans (not including low turnout areas in the Central Valley). The interior far northern counties are heavily Republican in registration. Registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats in Modoc County by about 51-24. It's the only county in California where a majority of registered voters are Republicans. I'm actually most amazed that the Republican registration advantage in Kern County is down to just 3%. Republicans are already in a bad place in California right now, but if they start losing places like Orange and Kern Counties, California will start looking like the Democratic version of Utah or Idaho (with permanent supermajorities in the Legislature and Congressional seats and no chance at any statewide office).

[NOVA Green]

Yeah, Santa Cruz was never going to be Sanders' best county (lots of latinos in Watsonville and affluent voters in Scotts Valley, Rio del Mar and even Aptos). It was always going to be Humboldt, right in the middle of the Emerald Triangle.

To be fair, I did hedge there, but Santa Cruz was a lot weaker for Bernie than I expected. I was definitely overestimating the effect of Santa Cruz itself on the county (particularly UCSC, where my cousin goes and has since moved quite a bit to the left, although I haven't talked presidential politics with him).

Actually looks like Watsonville wasn't that far off prelim county margin and was a 49-51 Hillary.

Santa Cruz (61-39 Bernie), Capitola (52-48 Bernie), Scotts Valley (49-51 Hillary) and Unincorporated (54-46 Bernie).

We haven't had any updates from SC since election night and will be interesting to see how these numbers change with Late VbMs and certainly provisionals, but there has been a trend that we have seen in other college counties in the West with Bernie actually underperforming Obama '08 numbers. Haven't delved through the precinct data much yet, but I suspect one trend is that faculty and staff in some of these communities are Obama '08 and Hillary '12, despite a higher level of support for Bernie vs Hillary among the <30 and student populations.

[NOVA Green]

I don't think Sanders takes SF

Ehmm

Congrats on the correct call! I think you are the only one on this thread that called it.

SF is currently the second best Bernie County in the Bay Area behind Alameda and appears to have been quite efficient in counting late VbMs, so even with margins tightening a bit is quite likely to lag behind Alameda in overall performance, which is really the only county that *might* flip in the Bay Area at this point once we start to see more results from late VbM ballots.

Note I don't consider Sonoma Bay Area proper, but more like a mix of the the wine country and North Coast, although certainly I can understand the logic of throwing it into the mix.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Yolo County still hasn't updated since very early Wednesday morning (basically the end of election night).

[NOVA Green]

Yolo County still hasn't updated since very early Wednesday morning (basically the end of election night).

There are 21 counties that haven't updated since election night, including Santa Cruz and Monterey in the Central Coast, Humboldt and Butte in Northern California, and San Joaquin and Kern in the Central Valley.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Yolo flip, but definitely will look to see if late vote-by-mails (VbM) trend heavily Bernie in the first wave (Like SLO and Santa Barbara) or if Hillary holds a narrow lead in Late VbMs and it comes down to provisionals.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

If I'm not mistaken, every county has finished or has fewer votes left than the margin. The county numbers should be accurate within + 1 county.

ElectionsGuy (January): 34/58
ElectionsGuy (June): 40/58
Holmes (June): 52/58
1184AZ (June): I can't see your map. I tried quoting it to get the url, but the url didn't work.
Fubart Solman (January): 47/58
Fubart Solman (April/June): 45/58 (damn, my first one was better)
xingkerui (June): I can't see your map. I tried quoting it to get the url, but the url didn't work.
Dwarven Dragon (Wulfric) (June): 47/58 (from what I interpreted of your comment and the map)
NOVA Green (Oregon Progressive) (June): 42/58
Sbane (June): 49/58 (comments plus map)

Holmes wins (of the ones I could see). Nice job!

[Dwarven Dragon]

My map was more hypothetical than an actual prediction.

The only actual prediction I put out pre June 7 was that Clinton would win 51-48.