TN- MTSU poll

[weixiaobao]

http://mtsupoll.org/

TN is an open primary right?

Kinda hard reading this poll.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not sure how open it is, but these are the numbers:

Democrats:

Clinton 47
Sanders 15
Trump 8
Other 1
Undecided/Refused 30

Republicans:

Trump 33
Cruz 17
Carson 7
Rubio 5
Christie 2
Bush 2
Other 2
Huckabee 1
Sanders 1
Kasich 1
Fiorina 1
Undecided/Refused 31

Independents:

Trump 26
Sanders 10
Clinton 8
Cruz 6
Carson 4
Paul 4
Rubio 3
Bush 2
Huckabee 2
Other 2
Christie 2
Undecided/Refused 33

All Voters:

Trump 24
Clinton 14
Cruz 9
Sanders 8
Carson 4
Rubio 3
Other 2
Christie 1
Bush 1
Paul 1
Huckabee 1
Fiorina <1
Kasich <1
Undecided/Refused 32

The poll was an open-ended question, not giving a list of candidates and allowing anyone to name any candidate, but it only lists the notable major-party candidates in the report, lumping everything else into 'Other':

"Of all the candidates currently running for president, can you please name the one person you would most like to win the election?"

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Not sure how open it is, but these are the numbers:

Democrats:

Clinton 47
Sanders 15
Trump 8
Other 1
Undecided/Refused 30

Republicans:

Trump 33
Cruz 17
Carson 7
Rubio 5
Christie 2
Bush 2
Other 2
Huckabee 1
Sanders 1
Kasich 1
Fiorina 1
Undecided/Refused 31

Independents:

Trump 26
Sanders 10
Clinton 8
Cruz 6
Carson 4
Paul 4
Rubio 3
Bush 2
Huckabee 2
Other 2
Christie 2
Undecided/Refused 33

All Voters:

Trump 24
Clinton 14
Cruz 9
Sanders 8
Carson 4
Rubio 3
Other 2
Christie 1
Bush 1
Paul 1
Huckabee 1
Fiorina <1
Kasich <1
Undecided/Refused 32

The poll was an open-ended question, not giving a list of candidates and allowing anyone to name any candidate, but it only lists the notable major-party candidates in the report, lumping everything else into 'Other':

"Of all the candidates currently running for president, can you please name the one person you would most like to win the election?"

Not sure how good of a poll it is (it would suggest that the GOP could maybe win by Wyoming/Utah margins in November), but, yes, it is an open primary.  I'll still be voting in the GOP Primary, of course.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, I thought the Democratic race would've closer than that, since TN has a relatively small minority population.

[Holmes]

Another Southern poll by a shoddy polling firm (University) that shows the Democratic race with huge undecideds. The margin makes sense though, I guess.

[RI]

Another Southern poll by a shoddy polling firm (University) that shows the Democratic race with huge undecideds. The margin makes sense though, I guess.

I strongly suspect southern white Dems don't want to vote for Clinton or Sanders but have nowhere else to really go.

[Mike Thick]

Wait, 8% of Tennessee Democrats support Trump? 1% of Republicans support Sanders? This is, needless to say, a strange poll.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wow, I thought the Democratic race would've closer than that, since TN has a relatively small minority population.

This poll reeks of junk. It allowed anyone to name any candidate running, as shown by Trump getting 8% of the democratic primary vote. It didn't list the candidates running, and instead of asking "who are you voting for?", it asked "who do you want to win the general?". It's possible some Sanders primary voters said Clinton because A) they think she's inevitable and believe they'll be voting for her in the general, which is essentially what this poll asked, or B) they're voting for Sanders in the primary solely because they want to extend the contest long enough to truly prepare Clinton for a tough GE.

Plus it lumped "Santorum" (who won the 2012 contest here), "Gilmore", and "O'Malley" into "Other". Disgusting.

[RI]

I suspect a lot more than 8% of TN Dems will vote for Trump.

[Badger]

Wow, I thought the Democratic race would've closer than that, since TN has a relatively small minority population.

Not that small. and it is of course a disproportionate share of Democratic primary voters.

[Lief 🗽]

What is surprising about 8% of TN Democrats supporting Trump? That sounds perfectly reasonable to me.

[A Perez]

Worst poll article ever made in history. No one can infer the results.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So adding up the numbers in the all voters category, Republicans lead in Tennessee 45/22 over the Democrats, with 2 percent saying 'Other' (no fair way to divide this up) and 32 percent undecided.

[Holmes]

Wow, I thought the Democratic race would've closer than that, since TN has a relatively small minority population.

This poll reeks of junk. It allowed anyone to name any candidate running, as shown by Trump getting 8% of the democratic primary vote. It didn't list the candidates running, and instead of asking "who are you voting for?", it asked "who do you want to win the general?". It's possible some Sanders primary voters said Clinton because A) they think she's inevitable and believe they'll be voting for her in the general, which is essentially what this poll asked, or B) they're voting for Sanders in the primary solely because they want to extend the contest long enough to truly prepare Clinton for a tough GE.

Plus it lumped "Santorum" (who won the 2012 contest here), "Gilmore", and "O'Malley" into "Other". Disgusting.

Oh lool, I just saw the 8% and thought it was O'Malley. Well, if nothing else, I guess these results are good news for Trump for having a good lead with Indies, and Clinton, especially if she almost gets 50% of Dems on an open-ended question

[Skye]

Wow, I thought the Democratic race would've closer than that, since TN has a relatively small minority population.

Plus it lumped "Santorum" (who won the 2012 contest here), "Gilmore", and "O'Malley" into "Other". Disgusting.

TBF, Santorum is polling at like 1 in Iowa, which he also won.

[RI]

I ran some regressions to try a figure out if we could find the "true" results of this poll with everyone in the correct party. Of the 600 people polled, it came out as 308 R, 219 D, 73 I. Using this, I calculated the following, assigning the DK/SE I's in accordance to the overall D/R breakdown:

Trump 37
Cruz 15
Carson 6
Rubio 5
Christie 2
Huckabee/Fiorina/Paul/Kasich 1
Don't Know/Refused/Someone else 31

Clinton 48
Sanders 19
Don't Know/Refused/Someone else 34

[weixiaobao]

I ran some regressions to try a figure out if we could find the "true" results of this poll with everyone in the correct party. Of the 600 people polled, it came out as 308 R, 219 D, 73 I. Using this, I calculated the following, assigning the DK/SE I's in accordance to the overall D/R breakdown:

Trump 37
Cruz 15
Carson 6
Rubio 5
Christie 2
Huckabee/Fiorina/Paul/Kasich 1
Don't Know/Refused/Someone else 31

Clinton 48
Sanders 19
Don't Know/Refused/Someone else 34

Can you do it for this one too?

http://mtsupoll.org/2015/11/06/carson-leads-the-presidential-field-in-tennessee-but-many-still-unsure-and-more-oppose-than-favor-other-top-candidates/

I had some #s from my own calculation, I want to compare.

[weixiaobao]

I don't remember but I think I did 3 equations with 3 variables thing last time.

[RI]

I ran some regressions to try a figure out if we could find the "true" results of this poll with everyone in the correct party. Of the 600 people polled, it came out as 308 R, 219 D, 73 I. Using this, I calculated the following, assigning the DK/SE I's in accordance to the overall D/R breakdown:

Trump 37
Cruz 15
Carson 6
Rubio 5
Christie 2
Huckabee/Fiorina/Paul/Kasich 1
Don't Know/Refused/Someone else 31

Clinton 48
Sanders 19
Don't Know/Refused/Someone else 34

Can you do it for this one too?

http://mtsupoll.org/2015/11/06/carson-leads-the-presidential-field-in-tennessee-but-many-still-unsure-and-more-oppose-than-favor-other-top-candidates/

I had some #s from my own calculation, I want to compare.

As far as I can tell, that poll doesn't give a breakdown beyond Trump/Carson/DK and Clinton/Sanders/DK. I don't see any support numbers for Rubio/Cruz/Bush/etc. Is that all the data there is?

[Ebsy]

Yeah, this poll's methodology is very, very weird. I wouldn't put much stock in it.

[RI]

I don't remember but I think I did 3 equations with 3 variables thing last time.

All right, here's my attempt using all the data I could find:

Carson 31
Trump 21
Unknown 17
DK 31

Clinton 42
Sanders 12
Unknown 17
DK 29

[IceSpear]

Another Southern poll by a shoddy polling firm (University) that shows the Democratic race with huge undecideds. The margin makes sense though, I guess.

I strongly suspect southern white Dems don't want to vote for Clinton or Sanders but have nowhere else to really go.

I suspect most of these "undecideds" will just stay home in states like OK and TN.

[Oak Hills]

Not sure how open it is, but these are the numbers:

It's completely open. There is no registration by party, and you indicate which primary you want to vote in by checking the party name on a little slip of paper they give you after you sign in.