Potential Challenger to Bingaman

[Moooooo]

From The Hill:

Santa Fe City Councilman David Pfeffer, a decorated Vietnam veteran who recently switched from the Democratic to the Republican column, says he is “on the cusp” of challenging Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.).

Pfeffer, 60, said that he had been a Democrat as recently as last November, when he voted for President Bush, but that the Democratic Party had let down voters on border control, homeland security, Social Security and other issues.
...
Bingaman, in his fourth term, raised nearly $230,000 in the first quarter of the year, bringing his cash on hand to just over $556,000.

[nini2287]

I don't think we have to worry, Bingaman is safe.  Pfeffer is just token opposition.

[TheresNoMoney]

Pfeffer, 60, said that he had been a Democrat as recently as last November, when he voted for President Bush, but that the Democratic Party had let down voters on border control, homeland security, Social Security and other issues.

What a moron.

Republicans have done nothing in the way of border control and very little in homeland security! Republicans are also proposing huge benefit cuts to Social Security and their SS ideas have been wildly unpopular.

[Sam Spade]

Fact is for the GOP that Heather Wilson is the best candidate they possibly have (and could make a race with Bingaman very interesting), but she's going to just simply wait until Sessions or Bingaman retire before she runs and (probably) wins whatever vacated seat it will be.

Pfeffer will probably get 40% and be nowhere close to Bingaman, though as always I would like WMS's opinion on this.

[TheresNoMoney]

Heather Wilson is the anti-christ.

[WMS]

Fact is for the GOP that Heather Wilson is the best candidate they possibly have (and could make a race with Bingaman very interesting), but she's going to just simply wait until Sessions or Bingaman retire before she runs and (probably) wins whatever vacated seat it will be.

Pfeffer will probably get 40% and be nowhere close to Bingaman, though as always I would like WMS's opinion on this.

You mean Domenici, right?

You are dead on about Heather Wilson - she's the strongest candidate, but is going to wait and give Dems heartburn by holding NM-01 until then. Steve Pearce in NM-02 is another possibility for one of those two openings, although he is considerably more conservative.

I don't know enough about Pfeffer to really tell you how he's going to do, although I give him credit for at least providing opposition. I may vote for him for that reason, which is the same reason I voted for Gloria Tristani in 2002. Bingaman's going to win, although it would be interesting to see what his margin would be if the Reps decide to fund Pfeffer adequately - Bingaman, although strong, is not in Domenici territory, partly (I think) because he is a lot more liberal than the state as a whole. But...I can't see Pfeffer going below 40% or Bingaman above 60% unless the Reps simply don't give him money (they might as well - it's not like they have much else to spend it on in 2006 ). Pfeffer seems pretty moderate, which might help him out somewhat.

So...55-60% for Bingaman, 40-45% for Pfeffer, and hopefully some entertainment.

[TheresNoMoney]

Isn't Heather Wilson vulnerable in her house seat? Didn't she only get something like 53% or 54% in the last election?

[King]

Pfeffer unseated a city councilman who lost for Mayor by 200 votes a few years ago, but with his recent switch to Republican, he won't get re-elected anyway.

I think Heather Wilson should run if Patricia Madrid runs for her seat, Madrid is unstoppable and Wilson will get crushed.  Otherwise, I think Steve Pearce would be a good choice if the Republicans want to become close and he is in a safe house seat.

Anyway, I agree with my fellow members that Pfeffer will do better than Domenci-Redmond '00...Redmond wasn't even popular in the House district he was representing (had about a 40% approval rating).

[WMS]

Isn't Heather Wilson vulnerable in her house seat? Didn't she only get something like 53% or 54% in the last election?

Not really, barring a major shift. She's done well in winning independents and, by the numbers, some moderate & conservative Democrats as well. NM-01 is the most independent-minded of the three NM Districts - NM-02 actually has more registered Democrats than NM-01 does. She's not as strong as Steve "I OWN this district" Schiff (RIP, 1998 ), but she's moderate enough to keep winning.

Let's see...
2004: Wilson w/54.4% (rest to Dem. Romero)
2002: Wilson w/55.4% (rest to Dem. Romero)
2000: Wilson w/50.3% (43.3% to Dem. Kelly, 6.4% to Grn. Kerlinsky)
1998: Wilson w/48.4% (41.9% to Dem. Maloof, 9.7% to Grn. Anderson)
1998 Special: Wilson w/44.6% (39.6% to Dem. Maloof, 14.7% to Grn. Anderson, 1.1% to Libt. Bush)

1996: Schiff w/56.6% (37.1% to Dem. Wertheim, 4.0% to Grn. Uhrich, 2.3% to Ind. Turrietta-Koury [conservative Rep.])
1994: Schiff w/73.93% (rest to Dem. Zollinger - yep, 26.07%) - note: I've MET Peter Zollinger, and he has the type of personality that makes people he passes by one mile away hate him - this result doesn't surprise me a bit ).
..............and that's all that's online.

[WMS]

Pfeffer unseated a city councilman who lost for Mayor by 200 votes a few years ago, but with his recent switch to Republican, he won't get re-elected anyway.

Are you from Santa Fe City itself, King? I remember you mentioning having previously been from Santa Fe County before...

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Do you really think Madrid is unstoppable? I don't think she'd win, myself...

Pearce would be interesting.

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You mean Bingaman, right?

Well, Redmond was in NM-03 and only won because the Dems ran an atrocious candidate and the Greens ran someone who pulled 17% of the vote. That isn't too surprising. Pearce actually ran in the Rep primary that year for Senate...

[King]

Isn't Heather Wilson vulnerable in her house seat? Didn't she only get something like 53% or 54% in the last election?

Not really, barring a major shift. She's done well in winning independents and, by the numbers, some moderate & conservative Democrats as well. NM-01 is the most independent-minded of the three NM Districts - NM-02 actually has more registered Democrats than NM-01 does. She's not as strong as Steve "I OWN this district" Schiff (RIP, 1998 ), but she's moderate enough to keep winning.

Let's see...
2004: Wilson w/54.4% (rest to Dem. Romero)
2002: Wilson w/55.4% (rest to Dem. Romero)
2000: Wilson w/50.3% (43.3% to Dem. Kelly, 6.4% to Grn. Kerlinsky)
1998: Wilson w/48.4% (41.9% to Dem. Maloof, 9.7% to Grn. Anderson)
1998 Special: Wilson w/44.6% (39.6% to Dem. Maloof, 14.7% to Grn. Anderson, 1.1% to Libt. Bush)

1996: Schiff w/56.6% (37.1% to Dem. Wertheim, 4.0% to Grn. Uhrich, 2.3% to Ind. Turrietta-Koury [conservative Rep.])
1994: Schiff w/73.93% (rest to Dem. Zollinger - yep, 26.07%) - note: I've MET Peter Zollinger, and he has the type of personality that makes people he passes by one mile away hate him - this result doesn't surprise me a bit ).
..............and that's all that's online.

From www.house.gov/b]

1992 -
Robert J. Aragon, Democrat   76,600 (37.4%)
Steven Schiff, Republican   128,426 (62.6%)

1990 - (Vigil-Giron currently is NM's Secretary of State)
Rebecca Vigil-Giron, Democrat   41,306   29.8%
Steven Schiff, Republican   97,375   70.2%

1988 - (Udall currently represents NM-03) Schiff's Closest Election
Tom Udall, Democrat   84,138   47.3%
Steven Schiff, Republican   89,985   50.6%
Allen Montgomery-Parkman, Libertarian   3,839   2.2%

After that, NM-01 is represented by Manuel Lujan (so far, he is the only person Bill Richardson lost to [1980 Congress], but Richardson came back in 1982 to win the new NM-3).

[King]

Are you from Santa Fe City itself, King? I remember you mentioning having previously been from Santa Fe County before...

I was born in Las Cruces, but we moved to Santa Fe because my mom couldn't afford to live on her own and my grandparents lived in SF.

[WMS]

Isn't Heather Wilson vulnerable in her house seat? Didn't she only get something like 53% or 54% in the last election?

Not really, barring a major shift. She's done well in winning independents and, by the numbers, some moderate & conservative Democrats as well. NM-01 is the most independent-minded of the three NM Districts - NM-02 actually has more registered Democrats than NM-01 does. She's not as strong as Steve "I OWN this district" Schiff (RIP, 1998 ), but she's moderate enough to keep winning.

Let's see...
2004: Wilson w/54.4% (rest to Dem. Romero)
2002: Wilson w/55.4% (rest to Dem. Romero)
2000: Wilson w/50.3% (43.3% to Dem. Kelly, 6.4% to Grn. Kerlinsky)
1998: Wilson w/48.4% (41.9% to Dem. Maloof, 9.7% to Grn. Anderson)
1998 Special: Wilson w/44.6% (39.6% to Dem. Maloof, 14.7% to Grn. Anderson, 1.1% to Libt. Bush)

1996: Schiff w/56.6% (37.1% to Dem. Wertheim, 4.0% to Grn. Uhrich, 2.3% to Ind. Turrietta-Koury [conservative Rep.])
1994: Schiff w/73.93% (rest to Dem. Zollinger - yep, 26.07%) - note: I've MET Peter Zollinger, and he has the type of personality that makes people he passes by one mile away hate him - this result doesn't surprise me a bit ).
..............and that's all that's online.

From www.house.gov/b]

1992 -
Robert J. Aragon, Democrat   76,600 (37.4%)
Steven Schiff, Republican   128,426 (62.6%)

1990 - (Vigil-Giron currently is NM's Secretary of State)
Rebecca Vigil-Giron, Democrat   41,306   29.8%
Steven Schiff, Republican   97,375   70.2%

1988 - (Udall currently represents NM-03) Schiff's Closest Election
Tom Udall, Democrat   84,138   47.3%
Steven Schiff, Republican   89,985   50.6%
Allen Montgomery-Parkman, Libertarian   3,839   2.2%

After that, NM-01 is represented by Manuel Lujan (so far, he is the only person Bill Richardson lost to [1980 Congress], but Richardson came back in 1982 to win the new NM-3).

Ooooh, I didn't know that info was out there. Thanks!

Comments: 1990 - Rebecca Vigil-Giron - UGH! Dreadful candidate, dreadful Secretary of State, and yes, I've met her. I'm glad she's term-limited out!
1988 - Tom Udall - yep, that was quite an open seat race!

Where on the site did you find the voting results?

Are you from Santa Fe City itself, King? I remember you mentioning having previously been from Santa Fe County before...

I was born in Las Cruces, but we moved to Santa Fe because my mom couldn't afford to live on her own and my grandparents lived in SF.

This must have been back before the rich Californians moved in, bought everything at immense (locally) prices, raised the tax assessment rates, and drove out most of the original inhabitants of Santa Fe.

[King]

This must have been back before the rich Californians moved in, bought everything at immense (locally) prices, raised the tax assessment rates, and drove out most of the original inhabitants of Santa Fe.

Ironically, my grandparents live in Rio Rancho now.

[King]

Where on the site did you find the voting results?

http://clerk.house.gov/members/electionInfo/elections.html

[WMS]

This must have been back before the rich Californians moved in, bought everything at immense (locally) prices, raised the tax assessment rates, and drove out most of the original inhabitants of Santa Fe.

Ironically, my grandparents live in Rio Rancho now.

That seems to be the trend.

Where on the site did you find the voting results?

http://clerk.house.gov/members/electionInfo/elections.html

Thanks!