When will be the next realignment election?

[Person Man]

2016 was a setup for a realignment in 2020 or 2024. It brought the Reagan alignment trends to or near their final conclusion, and we should see new and unexpected trends in the near future.

-Too soon.

That's a dumb reason. Its been 40 years. Its time.

[Person Man]

Yeah the New Deal era lasted 48 years. The Reagan era lasting 40-44 years makes sense. In theory could go on longer but I doubt it given climate change and economic changes.

For what it is worth, the Industrial Republican Era lasted 56 years. Reconstruction doesn't count. The Agrian Democrat system lasted 32.

[Person Man]

One thing that worries me is how much further the extremes can go and how much more polarized we can get until the country either breaks up or the ruling party at the time says "Enough!", shuts the whole thing down,  and just pays critics a severance and find them a new place...or just puts everyone in jail.

[Person Man]

The other reason for a realigning election in 2024 is probably this. The string of close elections since 2000 probably will come to an end an one party will prevail over the other for a few cycles. For a lot of reasons, the Democrats look like the party that have a bigger coalition and being the out party right now probably gives them the breakthrough they need in 2024.

For a lot of reasons, I don't see the GOP breaking that logjam to win 55-58% of the electorate on a consistent basis.

Yeah, while I've always believed permanent majorities are utter nonsense, we could very well be on the verge of a period of Democratic dominance, starting with the next Democratic President. Their popular vote share is more likely to inch up as Millennials become the plurality of the electorate. I could resemble the inverse of Republicans' dominance in the EC from 1968-1992, with only a major scandal enabling a D to win (but take away the lopsided congressional majorities by the opposite party). Particularly if they turn the Sun Belt into the next Virginia or Colorado (where it votes reliably D, even if narrowly), that's going to heavily outweigh the inroads Republicans make in the Midwest. I agree with you that 2024 is more ripe for the picking on states like Texas and Georgia (particularly after two terms of Trump), but who knows--2020 could exacerbate those long-term trends, just like Trump did in the Midwest this year. The Senate will more or less be a wash, though.

The last line I don't agree. The partisanship of the Congressional Republicans probably mean the Democrats would be the majority in Congress. Remember the '68-92 Democrats often let a lot of the Republican agenda through (especially after 1981) and that's how they kept their majorities. I don't think the Republicans will be capable of behaving in a similar fashion to save their majority.

Do you think the majority was Republican, if you give a reasonable counting and scoring of the votes?

[Person Man]

You do realize that the Democratic edge with 18-29 year-olds was literally cut in half between 2012 and 2016, right?  It seems that that generation is already moving back towards the center.  Let's see how the 18-29s vote in 2020 (I expect a single-digit margin).

What?

Obama '12:  60 - 37
Clinton '16:  55 - 36

That's not half. Hillary lost 5 points and Trump actually did a point worse than Romney. That's not moving back to the center. I'd venture a guess her drop in support was mostly due to Hillary being Hillary - Millennial disdain for her was bound to cost her something. Also worth noting here is that Hillary did even better (and Trump worse) with 18-24 year olds, 56 - 34. That's fking terrible for the GOP.

Gary Johnson and Jill Stien. Even my sister in law refused to vote for Hillary and voted for Bernie instead. A lot of very liberal people were almost indistinguishable from Trump sometimes on my fb feed. Just look at Shadows.

The main issue is how to turn out both the very Democratic and the kinda Democratic.