When will be the next realignment election?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What I was taught in political science classes was that the last realigning election was 1932 and that there will likely never be another one, largely because the advent of public opinion polling allows parties to gradually move, rather than the sudden re-divides of 1824, 1860, or 1932.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Yeah the New Deal era lasted 48 years. The Reagan era lasting 40-44 years makes sense. In theory could go on longer but I doubt it given climate change and economic changes.

But, wait: three months ago, Atlas was saying that the Reagan era ended in 2008 with the election of Obama and that we were in the liberal Obama realignment now.  Which is it?

(Partisan realignment eras (as Atlas likes to think of them) are mostly a myth, anyway.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The other reason for a realigning election in 2024 is probably this. The string of close elections since 2000 probably will come to an end an one party will prevail over the other for a few cycles. For a lot of reasons, the Democrats look like the party that have a bigger coalition and being the out party right now probably gives them the breakthrough they need in 2024.

For a lot of reasons, I don't see the GOP breaking that logjam to win 55-58% of the electorate on a consistent basis.

Yeah, while I've always believed permanent majorities are utter nonsense, we could very well be on the verge of a period of Democratic dominance, starting with the next Democratic President. Their popular vote share is more likely to inch up as Millennials become the plurality of the electorate. I could resemble the inverse of Republicans' dominance in the EC from 1968-1992, with only a major scandal enabling a D to win (but take away the lopsided congressional majorities by the opposite party). Particularly if they turn the Sun Belt into the next Virginia or Colorado (where it votes reliably D, even if narrowly), that's going to heavily outweigh the inroads Republicans make in the Midwest. I agree with you that 2024 is more ripe for the picking on states like Texas and Georgia (particularly after two terms of Trump), but who knows--2020 could exacerbate those long-term trends, just like Trump did in the Midwest this year. The Senate will more or less be a wash, though.

You do realize that the Democratic edge with 18-29 year-olds was literally cut in half between 2012 and 2016, right?  It seems that that generation is already moving back towards the center.  Let's see how the 18-29s vote in 2020 (I expect a single-digit margin).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

You do realize that the Democratic edge with 18-29 year-olds was literally cut in half between 2012 and 2016, right?  It seems that that generation is already moving back towards the center.  Let's see how the 18-29s vote in 2020 (I expect a single-digit margin).

What?

Obama '12:  60 - 37
Clinton '16:  55 - 36

That's not half. Hillary lost 5 points and Trump actually did a point worse than Romney. That's not moving back to the center. I'd venture a guess her drop in support was mostly due to Hillary being Hillary - Millennial disdain for her was bound to cost her something. Also worth noting here is that Hillary did even better (and Trump worse) with 18-24 year olds, 56 - 34. That's fking terrible for the GOP.

There is nothing to suggest what you are saying. I know you'd like it to be the other way around, but your party is really losing an entire generation here, and no, it isn't reversing so far.

My bad, I mixed up 2008 and 2012 in my head.