When will be the next realignment election?
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  When will be the next realignment election?
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Question: When will be the next realignment election?
#1
2020
 
#2
2024
 
#3
2028
 
#4
2032
 
#5
2036
 
#6
2040
 
#7
2044
 
#8
2048
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 70

Author Topic: When will be the next realignment election?  (Read 7184 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #50 on: February 01, 2017, 07:19:33 PM »

One thing that worries me is how much further the extremes can go and how much more polarized we can get until the country either breaks up or the ruling party at the time says "Enough!", shuts the whole thing down,  and just pays critics a severance and find them a new place...or just puts everyone in jail.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #51 on: February 01, 2017, 08:36:17 PM »

The other reason for a realigning election in 2024 is probably this. The string of close elections since 2000 probably will come to an end an one party will prevail over the other for a few cycles. For a lot of reasons, the Democrats look like the party that have a bigger coalition and being the out party right now probably gives them the breakthrough they need in 2024.

For a lot of reasons, I don't see the GOP breaking that logjam to win 55-58% of the electorate on a consistent basis.

Yeah, while I've always believed permanent majorities are utter nonsense, we could very well be on the verge of a period of Democratic dominance, starting with the next Democratic President. Their popular vote share is more likely to inch up as Millennials become the plurality of the electorate. I could resemble the inverse of Republicans' dominance in the EC from 1968-1992, with only a major scandal enabling a D to win (but take away the lopsided congressional majorities by the opposite party). Particularly if they turn the Sun Belt into the next Virginia or Colorado (where it votes reliably D, even if narrowly), that's going to heavily outweigh the inroads Republicans make in the Midwest. I agree with you that 2024 is more ripe for the picking on states like Texas and Georgia (particularly after two terms of Trump), but who knows--2020 could exacerbate those long-term trends, just like Trump did in the Midwest this year. The Senate will more or less be a wash, though.

The last line I don't agree. The partisanship of the Congressional Republicans probably mean the Democrats would be the majority in Congress. Remember the '68-92 Democrats often let a lot of the Republican agenda through (especially after 1981) and that's how they kept their majorities. I don't think the Republicans will be capable of behaving in a similar fashion to save their majority.

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Person Man
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« Reply #52 on: February 01, 2017, 08:42:26 PM »

The other reason for a realigning election in 2024 is probably this. The string of close elections since 2000 probably will come to an end an one party will prevail over the other for a few cycles. For a lot of reasons, the Democrats look like the party that have a bigger coalition and being the out party right now probably gives them the breakthrough they need in 2024.

For a lot of reasons, I don't see the GOP breaking that logjam to win 55-58% of the electorate on a consistent basis.

Yeah, while I've always believed permanent majorities are utter nonsense, we could very well be on the verge of a period of Democratic dominance, starting with the next Democratic President. Their popular vote share is more likely to inch up as Millennials become the plurality of the electorate. I could resemble the inverse of Republicans' dominance in the EC from 1968-1992, with only a major scandal enabling a D to win (but take away the lopsided congressional majorities by the opposite party). Particularly if they turn the Sun Belt into the next Virginia or Colorado (where it votes reliably D, even if narrowly), that's going to heavily outweigh the inroads Republicans make in the Midwest. I agree with you that 2024 is more ripe for the picking on states like Texas and Georgia (particularly after two terms of Trump), but who knows--2020 could exacerbate those long-term trends, just like Trump did in the Midwest this year. The Senate will more or less be a wash, though.

The last line I don't agree. The partisanship of the Congressional Republicans probably mean the Democrats would be the majority in Congress. Remember the '68-92 Democrats often let a lot of the Republican agenda through (especially after 1981) and that's how they kept their majorities. I don't think the Republicans will be capable of behaving in a similar fashion to save their majority.



Do you think the majority was Republican, if you give a reasonable counting and scoring of the votes?
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #53 on: February 01, 2017, 09:11:43 PM »

The other reason for a realigning election in 2024 is probably this. The string of close elections since 2000 probably will come to an end an one party will prevail over the other for a few cycles. For a lot of reasons, the Democrats look like the party that have a bigger coalition and being the out party right now probably gives them the breakthrough they need in 2024.

For a lot of reasons, I don't see the GOP breaking that logjam to win 55-58% of the electorate on a consistent basis.

Yeah, while I've always believed permanent majorities are utter nonsense, we could very well be on the verge of a period of Democratic dominance, starting with the next Democratic President. Their popular vote share is more likely to inch up as Millennials become the plurality of the electorate. I could resemble the inverse of Republicans' dominance in the EC from 1968-1992, with only a major scandal enabling a D to win (but take away the lopsided congressional majorities by the opposite party). Particularly if they turn the Sun Belt into the next Virginia or Colorado (where it votes reliably D, even if narrowly), that's going to heavily outweigh the inroads Republicans make in the Midwest. I agree with you that 2024 is more ripe for the picking on states like Texas and Georgia (particularly after two terms of Trump), but who knows--2020 could exacerbate those long-term trends, just like Trump did in the Midwest this year. The Senate will more or less be a wash, though.

You do realize that the Democratic edge with 18-29 year-olds was literally cut in half between 2012 and 2016, right?  It seems that that generation is already moving back towards the center.  Let's see how the 18-29s vote in 2020 (I expect a single-digit margin).
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Virginiá
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« Reply #54 on: February 01, 2017, 09:27:31 PM »
« Edited: February 01, 2017, 09:38:44 PM by Virginia »

You do realize that the Democratic edge with 18-29 year-olds was literally cut in half between 2012 and 2016, right?  It seems that that generation is already moving back towards the center.  Let's see how the 18-29s vote in 2020 (I expect a single-digit margin).

What?

Obama '12:  60 - 37
Clinton '16:  55 - 36

That's not half. Hillary lost 5 points and Trump actually did a point worse than Romney. That's not moving back to the center. I'd venture a guess her drop in support was mostly due to Hillary being Hillary - Millennial disdain for her was bound to cost her something. Also worth noting here is that Hillary did even better (and Trump worse) with 18-24 year olds, 56 - 34. That's fking terrible for the GOP.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #55 on: February 01, 2017, 09:35:26 PM »

You do realize that the Democratic edge with 18-29 year-olds was literally cut in half between 2012 and 2016, right?  It seems that that generation is already moving back towards the center.  Let's see how the 18-29s vote in 2020 (I expect a single-digit margin).

What?

Obama '12:  60 - 37
Clinton '16:  55 - 36

That's not half. Hillary lost 5 points and Trump actually did a point worse than Romney. That's not moving back to the center. I'd venture a guess her drop in support was mostly due to Hillary being Hillary - Millennial disdain for her was bound to cost her something. Also worth noting here is that Hillary did even better (and Trump worse) with 18-24 year olds, 56 - 34. That's fking terrible for the GOP.

There is nothing to suggest what you are saying. I know you'd like it to be the other way around, but your party is really losing an entire generation here, and no, it isn't reversing so far.

My bad, I mixed up 2008 and 2012 in my head.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #56 on: February 01, 2017, 09:39:43 PM »

The other reason for a realigning election in 2024 is probably this. The string of close elections since 2000 probably will come to an end an one party will prevail over the other for a few cycles. For a lot of reasons, the Democrats look like the party that have a bigger coalition and being the out party right now probably gives them the breakthrough they need in 2024.

For a lot of reasons, I don't see the GOP breaking that logjam to win 55-58% of the electorate on a consistent basis.

Yeah, while I've always believed permanent majorities are utter nonsense, we could very well be on the verge of a period of Democratic dominance, starting with the next Democratic President. Their popular vote share is more likely to inch up as Millennials become the plurality of the electorate. I could resemble the inverse of Republicans' dominance in the EC from 1968-1992, with only a major scandal enabling a D to win (but take away the lopsided congressional majorities by the opposite party). Particularly if they turn the Sun Belt into the next Virginia or Colorado (where it votes reliably D, even if narrowly), that's going to heavily outweigh the inroads Republicans make in the Midwest. I agree with you that 2024 is more ripe for the picking on states like Texas and Georgia (particularly after two terms of Trump), but who knows--2020 could exacerbate those long-term trends, just like Trump did in the Midwest this year. The Senate will more or less be a wash, though.

The last line I don't agree. The partisanship of the Congressional Republicans probably mean the Democrats would be the majority in Congress. Remember the '68-92 Democrats often let a lot of the Republican agenda through (especially after 1981) and that's how they kept their majorities. I don't think the Republicans will be capable of behaving in a similar fashion to save their majority.



Do you think the majority was Republican, if you give a reasonable counting and scoring of the votes?

I don't know about 1969-1981 but post-1981 the blue dog conservatives and the Republican Party made up a House majority. The Southern Democrats were about as conservative as a lot of the Republicans. In 1994 the Republicans basically replaced a ton of blue dogs.
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Person Man
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« Reply #57 on: February 02, 2017, 07:55:14 AM »

You do realize that the Democratic edge with 18-29 year-olds was literally cut in half between 2012 and 2016, right?  It seems that that generation is already moving back towards the center.  Let's see how the 18-29s vote in 2020 (I expect a single-digit margin).

What?

Obama '12:  60 - 37
Clinton '16:  55 - 36

That's not half. Hillary lost 5 points and Trump actually did a point worse than Romney. That's not moving back to the center. I'd venture a guess her drop in support was mostly due to Hillary being Hillary - Millennial disdain for her was bound to cost her something. Also worth noting here is that Hillary did even better (and Trump worse) with 18-24 year olds, 56 - 34. That's fking terrible for the GOP.


Gary Johnson and Jill Stien. Even my sister in law refused to vote for Hillary and voted for Bernie instead. A lot of very liberal people were almost indistinguishable from Trump sometimes on my fb feed. Just look at Shadows.

The main issue is how to turn out both the very Democratic and the kinda Democratic.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #58 on: February 12, 2017, 04:20:47 PM »

2020, after Trump, I doubt the GOP will win anytime soon. 
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #59 on: March 09, 2017, 08:17:14 PM »

If Trump or Pence wins in 2020, the next realignment will be in 2024.

If Trump or Pence lose in 2020, then it'll be in 2028.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #60 on: March 09, 2017, 08:25:35 PM »

2008 seems pretty realigning when you consider the fact that the Global Financial Crisis and Barack Obama's presidency is what initially set the stage for a neo-populist movement; 2016 just showed us the failures that the hourglass "Obama coalition" created. 

I imagine that rise of a neo-populist, nativist movement is probably going to be a hallmark of Western politics for the next 20 to 30 years, and 2008 seems like the logical place to start that rise.

We just entered a new party system that is still defining itself as we shake the old "left" vs. "right" moral crusades that have defined the "culture wars" of the past 50 years, we shouldn't expect a realignment until after mid-Century probably.
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