It's on... Tester to Challenges Burns

[AuH2O]

ah, my bad. By 'possibly' I thought you meant MD was similar to MN in terms of the GOP opportunity.

My ranking takes everything into account... for example, ND is a great opportunity if Hoeven runs, but there's no indication yet that will happen.

On my list, I think the first 4 are almost certain to be fairly competitive, with 5-7 conditional on the candidates.

edit: maybe I was hasty on putting ND last. After doing a little looking, Hoeven is thought to be leaning towards a run, and he's perhaps the most popular Governor in the US and running against a Democrat in a state Bush dominated. Maybe it should be #5.

[King]

I will say that Democrats are not incorrect to say MT is their #1 or #2 pickup opportunity.

Top 3 pickup opportunities are PA, RI, and MT. There are 3 others where I think we have a reasonable chance as well.

Wish we could get a good candidate to challenge DeWine, but it doesn't appear likely.

Look at the numbers, you guys have absolutely no chance (ok, you have a long shot) at picking up Rhode Island.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I will say that Democrats are not incorrect to say MT is their #1 or #2 pickup opportunity.

Top 3 pickup opportunities are PA, RI, and MT. There are 3 others where I think we have a reasonable chance as well.

Wish we could get a good candidate to challenge DeWine, but it doesn't appear likely.

Look at the numbers, you guys have absolutely no chance (ok, you have a long shot) at picking up Rhode Island.

I don't think the Dems have a great chance at winning head-to-head against Chafee, but some analysts believe he is very vulnerable to a primary challenge.  Stuart Rothenberg has repeatedly claimed Chafee is an underdog to Laffey.  I think this significantly overstates it, but I'll hold off on a predicition until I at least see a couple polls.  As I've mentioned before, only 16% of RI voters identify as Republicans, so this is a very small and insular electorate.