1968=2008 the other way around?

[Virginiá]

I don't think it's fair to say that all realignments happen for the same reasons. 2008's success & future success at that is marked by that of the Millennial generation and the fast growing non-white population, who votes pretty solidly Democratic. The voting patterns of non-Millennial whites hasn't changed a whole lot, and if anything it might actually be slightly more Republican in 2016 than the average of the past 6 presidential elections. Also, because turnout is usually a lot higher in presidential elections, when younger voters come out to vote, they have greater influence and thus it would be easier to see changing preferences play out first in presidential elections. The voting patterns of young adults is critical to understanding the future composition of Congress and state legislatures, while older voters may be split at the presidential level and state level as state/Congressional politicians only have to run on views palatable in their state/district to win over those voters, as opposed to a presidential candidate who has to run on views that appeal to the broadest national audience, which will inevitably alienate certain regions. Think Rubio vs Larry Hogan (R-MD).

Also, the Solid South gave the Democratic party a nice cushion in Congress as they could lose seats everywhere else and still be able to rely on those sweet, sweet Southern seats to keep their majorities in Congress relatively healthy. Obviously those allegiances have changed, and because it's no longer solidly Democratic, it is a bit weaker as the large population of African Americans in the South still votes almost unanimously Democratic.

There are also other reasons why Democrats have a disadvantage in Congress right now. Their voters are simply not distributed as evenly. Republicans have a representation bias in both the Senate and House. Sparsely populated rural states get just as many senators as a large state like California, and these states are sometimes very conservative. Further, the clumping of Democratic voters in population centers creates packed districts where there are regular landslide elections and thus wasted votes. This also makes gerrymandering a lot more effective.

This is worth a read as well:

http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/section-1-how-generations-have-changed/

Because of the increasing rarity of split ticket voting, you can probably expect a continuing lag between presidential dominance and Congressional dominance, absent a major event like the GD. Younger voters fueling presidential victories won't vote more reliably in midterm elections for many years.

[Virginiá]

Looking at the history of where the country has gone policy wise, it's fascinating to me how many on the right feel like they lost out or at best broke even during 1969-2009.  Obviously, Roe v. Wade still stands, but taxes have dropped to pre-WWII levels, the American labor movement has been effectively wiped out, the airlines, cash welfare benefits have been greatly reduced, banks, etc. were deregulated, and the general legal environment around abortion has gotten much more restrictive.  Only in the past 7 years has there been politically effective pushback to stop or reverse any of these changes.

Good analysis as usual )

I think a shorter way to phrase what you said above is they have essentially taken for granted their influence. They got so much of what they wanted, and now that there is push back (notably on social issues), they feel like they are being marginalized and dread what has been happening the past 8 years. I mean, how do they think the other half of the country has felt for the past generation? It's incredibly selfish to think that just because the other half is beginning to gain influence and gain ground on policies they want in recent years, that somehow they (the right) have been subjugated and mistreated for so long. Perhaps it is the bias that occurs when they muster enough votes to elect a Republican Congress, they wrongly assume that because that happened, all of America must support their views, when that has never, ever been the case.

[Virginiá]

When does Generation Z start, the new 18 year old voters this election cycle or not until 2020?

I suppose that depends when the Millennial generation ends. I've seen dates ranging from 1998 - 2003, so unless they were born in 1998 or before, they can't vote yet. I think it would probably be safe to say that by 2020, at least the first of GenZ will be be voting.

[Virginiá]

Um like Rhode Island, Delaware, and Vermont for the Dems? Texas is the 2nd most populous state and they get 2 US Senators just like CA does. Most of the smaller Republican States are out west like Utah, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

I didn't mean Democrats didn't have any of their own, but rather that they have less. Look at the states by population - Democrats have more of the highly populated states, with a number of the ones you might think would belong more to Republicans being relatively split between the parties in terms of Senate race pick up possibilities (like Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania being red at the state level but definitely prime targets for Senate elections).

Meanwhile, Republicans have a lot of low-EV states that are solidly red with only occasional deviations.