Tennessee Senate: Harold Ford, Jr., is Running

[Frodo]

being a member of the Blue Dog Caucus in the House, as well as being a fairly centrist congressman, how much of a chance do you all think he has in winning the Senate seat being vacated by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist?

Rep. Harold Ford Jr. files for Senate bid

By BETH RUCKER
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. filed the federal paperwork Wednesday to run for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Majority Leader Bill Frist.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/apelection_story.asp?category=1132&slug=Senate%20Race%20Ford

[opebo]

None, he is black.  We are talking about Tennessee here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

None, he is black.  We are talking about Tennessee here.

Ford's biggest problem isn't his colour; it's the fact that he's from Memphis. If some Good Ole Boy from Mid or Northwest Tennessee runs in the primary, Ford might have a lot of difficulty winning it.

[TheresNoMoney]

He actually has a shot. Current polls have him neck and neck with the top two Republican challengers.

Ford, Jr. is very Lieberman-ish and conservative for a Democrat.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

The "current poll" that shows him neck and neck is his own poll released back on March 31.  I do not believe it is impossible that he could win, but it is highly unlikely.

He actually has a shot. Current polls have him neck and neck with the top two Republican challengers.

Ford, Jr. is very Lieberman-ish and conservative for a Democrat.

[jokerman]

Ford is a rising star of the Democratic Party.  He'd make a great Senator, I hope he wins the primary.

[TheresNoMoney]

Ford is a rising star of the Democratic Party.  He'd make a great Senator, I hope he wins the primary.

He'll win the primary easily.

Do you think he can win the general? Is Ed Bryant the likely Republican challenger?

[jokerman]

Ford is a rising star of the Democratic Party.  He'd make a great Senator, I hope he wins the primary.

He'll win the primary easily.

Do you think he can win the general? Is Ed Bryant the likely Republican challenger?

I think he can win the general.  He's a moderate.

[CARLHAYDEN]

None, he is black.  We are talking about Tennessee here.

Ford's biggest problem isn't his colour; it's the fact that he's from Memphis. If some Good Ole Boy from Mid or Northwest Tennessee runs in the primary, Ford might have a lot of difficulty winning it.

You raise a very good point.

Tennessee, like every other state with which I am personally familiar with has intrastate rivalries.

[Democratic Hawk]

Ford is a rising star of the Democratic Party.  He'd make a great Senator, I hope he wins the primary.

I hope Ford wins the primary and goes on to represent Tennessee in the Senate. We need more good moderate Democrats from the South. The region's trended too much GOP for my palate

Dave

[nini2287]

It'll be an uphill battle, but I think Ford has a decent shot against whoever the nominee is Bryant or Hilleary.

[TomC]

Harold Ford, Jr.'s uncle got arrested this morning along with 3 other state senators, supposedly for making money on govt property, but charges are not entirely clear. Ford Jr. has my vote, but he's got trouble. Rosalind Kurita is definitely less known, but she's getting some good support. I walked into Davidson Co (Nashville) HQ and the volunteers were working on stuff for Kurita. Democracy for Tenn (the state chapter of the Dean spin-off group) seems to support Kurita and they have sub chapters all over the state.

On the Republican side, the media reports four people running: Bryant, a former Representative who lost a primary battle to the more moderate Lamar Alexander, Van Hilleary, who lost to gov Bredesen, Beth Harwell, a Nashville state rep and former state head of the GOP, and Bob Corker, a center right mayor of Chattanooga in East Tenn. Rumors are that Harwell will eventually run against Bredesen and not run for senate. Bryant seems to be off the starting line the best. The Bryant camp is making charges that Hilleary is a weak candidate bewcause he is the only Repub to lose a statewide race since  the 1994 elections. That he is a GOPer that lost in a GOP state. I haven't heard Hilleary's response (and a claim that hey, at least Hilleary won his primary, unlike Bryant.) Corker is portrayed as a more moderate candidate, although he's making the claims he's a true conservative. I see Bryant winning. Ford, Jr. will win although Kurita will do better than people think. Unfortunately, Ford Jr will have a really tough race, but his uncle's troubles will hurt- not the fact that he's Af American.

[AuH2O]

Ford is a longshot at best.

[Moooooo]

Ford is a longshot at best.

I agree.  Sam Spade has compared Ford's chances of winning in TN to Steele's chances of winning in MD.  They both have a shot, but it's a long shot.  Really, the only thing they have going for them is star power.

[Democratic Hawk]

Ford is a longshot at best.

Really, the only thing they have going for them is star power.

Could make all the difference in the event of a close race! I wish Ford well in his efforts

Dave

[King]

Could make all the difference in the event of a close race! I wish Ford well in his efforts

Dave

Starpower is the only thing making it a close race as of now.

[Sam Spade]

Ford is a longshot at best.

I agree.  Sam Spade has compared Ford's chances of winning in TN to Steele's chances of winning in MD.  They both have a shot, but it's a long shot.  Really, the only thing they have going for them is star power.

I second my own analysis. 

In truth, here's are the three major problems. 

1.  Ford's father:  I don't think it's that big, but it's still a problem.

2.  Lack of black population:  In comparison with the rest of the South, the black population in Tennessee is small (at 16.3%).  He won't be able to get a race positive ethnicity boost that he might get in other states.

3.  Geography.  Remember when I said last year and this year too that Coburn was the only candidate who could win it for the Republicans in Oklahoma because of where he was from.  Tennessee is a very similar type of state and this same thing makes Ford a longshot.

Democrats don't need to worry about winning Western Tennessee (where Ford's district is).  They already do anyway.

And they're obviously going to get killed in Eastern Tennessee, which is extremely anti-Democrat territory.

This means they must win central Tennessee, specifically Nashville, and the Democrats problem, as it has been for a while, is that those Nashville suburbs trended Republican strongly in the 1990's and show no signs of moving from there.

No Democrat's been able to win statewide in Tennessee since 1994 without being from Nashville, and I don't see that changing for Ford, unless the GOP nominates a terribly weak or damaged candidate for 2006.

I am also with htmldon in the poll that showed him that close.  Even if it that poll was accurate (which it might be), he still has trouble because those undecideds will trend GOP and only Bredsen has win been able to win under those circumstances of late. (helped by years of bad GOP leadership in the governor's office)

[TomC]

Ford is a longshot at best.

I agree.  Sam Spade has compared Ford's chances of winning in TN to Steele's chances of winning in MD.  They both have a shot, but it's a long shot.  Really, the only thing they have going for them is star power.

I second my own analysis. 

In truth, here's are the three major problems. 

1.  Ford's father:  I don't think it's that big, but it's still a problem.

It's his uncle, and I disagree, it is a BIG problem. He was arrested yesterday by federal agents for accepting 55000 dollars in bribe money. Also, there are extra charges because, during the sting, he told the FBI officers posing as corporate execs that he'd shoot and kill anyone trying to set him up. So he gets extra charges for threatening a federal witness. He'll be on trial during a good part of this election- the Ford name will be on the news regularly in a very negative light. Ford Jr. is screwed, and it's too bad because he's really a decent guy who wants to make the Democratic Party better and more competetive in the South.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Exactly.  My understanding is that he has some investment firm ready to hire him for a whole lot of money if he loses... so he's got other plans

Ford is a longshot at best.

I agree.  Sam Spade has compared Ford's chances of winning in TN to Steele's chances of winning in MD.  They both have a shot, but it's a long shot.  Really, the only thing they have going for them is star power.

I second my own analysis. 

In truth, here's are the three major problems. 

1.  Ford's father:  I don't think it's that big, but it's still a problem.

It's his uncle, and I disagree, it is a BIG problem. He was arrested yesterday by federal agents for accepting 55000 dollars in bribe money. Also, there are extra charges because, during the sting, he told the FBI officers posing as corporate execs that he'd shoot and kill anyone trying to set him up. So he gets extra charges for threatening a federal witness. He'll be on trial during a good part of this election- the Ford name will be on the news regularly in a very negative light. Ford Jr. is screwed, and it's too bad because he's really a decent guy who wants to make the Democratic Party better and more competetive in the South.

[Sam Spade]

Ford is a longshot at best.

I agree.  Sam Spade has compared Ford's chances of winning in TN to Steele's chances of winning in MD.  They both have a shot, but it's a long shot.  Really, the only thing they have going for them is star power.

I second my own analysis. 

In truth, here's are the three major problems. 

1.  Ford's father:  I don't think it's that big, but it's still a problem.

It's his uncle, and I disagree, it is a BIG problem. He was arrested yesterday by federal agents for accepting 55000 dollars in bribe money. Also, there are extra charges because, during the sting, he told the FBI officers posing as corporate execs that he'd shoot and kill anyone trying to set him up. So he gets extra charges for threatening a federal witness. He'll be on trial during a good part of this election- the Ford name will be on the news regularly in a very negative light. Ford Jr. is screwed, and it's too bad because he's really a decent guy who wants to make the Democratic Party better and more competetive in the South.

Fair enough.  I'll trust both you and htmldon because y'all are from Tennessee and probably really know what you're talking about here.   

It's hard to get proper perspective of other political scandals, races, etc, when you're a 1000 miles away, even if you try hard. 

[Ben.]

Ford is a longshot at best.

I agree.  Sam Spade has compared Ford's chances of winning in TN to Steele's chances of winning in MD.  They both have a shot, but it's a long shot.  Really, the only thing they have going for them is star power.

I second my own analysis. 

In truth, here's are the three major problems. 

1.  Ford's father:  I don't think it's that big, but it's still a problem.

It's his uncle, and I disagree, it is a BIG problem. He was arrested yesterday by federal agents for accepting 55000 dollars in bribe money. Also, there are extra charges because, during the sting, he told the FBI officers posing as corporate execs that he'd shoot and kill anyone trying to set him up. So he gets extra charges for threatening a federal witness. He'll be on trial during a good part of this election- the Ford name will be on the news regularly in a very negative light. Ford Jr. is screwed, and it's too bad because he's really a decent guy who wants to make the Democratic Party better and more competetive in the South.

Fair enough.  I'll trust both you and htmldon because y'all are from Tennessee and probably really know what you're talking about here.   

It's hard to get proper perspective of other political scandals, races, etc, when you're a 1000 miles away, even if you try hard. 

I would like Ford to win, but I don't kid myself that it won’t be very tough for him.

The story about his uncle won't help, but by 2006 it won't be too much of an issue.

His politics are a very good fit for the state and I really doubt that the fact that he is African American will hurt him much if at all, his connects with the Memphis Democrat Machine will however hurt him and could be exploited by the GOP.

In the end I think that the race will defiantly lean towards the GOP, a lot will depend on who the GOP nominate in the end, but it’s a midterm election, Ford will be able to rake in plenty of money and he’s a good campaigner… so he has a decent shot at it.

[PADem]

Surely the Democrats are going to push this race hard though. I'd expect to see big name Democrats endorsing him and helping him with his campaign - people like Governor Bredesen, the Clintons, Al Gore (who is apparently still averagely popular in the state), and people like Barack Obama.

[AuH2O]

I hope they bring in Gore (D-DC).

In any case, Ford is a huge longshot and if Democrats want to throw money at them, fine by me. Too late they'll probably realize it was needed elsewhere.

[Ben Meyers]

Ford definitely has a shot for one reason - he's a moderate.

I think that the most likely GOP nominee is Van Hilleary.  The last time he ran against a moderate Democrat in a statewide race in Tennessee, he lost 51% to 48%.

I think that it will be a very close race.  The margin will be either 52-47, 51-48, or 50-49, though I'm guessing one of the first two.

I say Hilleary takes the race 51% to 48%.

[AuH2O]

Just like Erskine Bow--... uhh

Being a moderate doesn't win you elections. Being a good candidate wins you elections.