IA/NH/SC/FL/GA/TX-CBS/Yougov: Sanders leads IA/NH; Clinton leads SC; Trump leads

[psychprofessor]

I'm sorry but any poll with margins of error between 8-10% is just silly.

[psychprofessor]

Good to see that the Blaxicasians in SC are finally getting rid of their Hillary-addiction and are able to see the light at the end of the tunnel, by feeling the BERN.

Can you read? Clinton is getting 76% of the black vote in South Carolina in this poll. If anything, Sanders is solidifying the white vote, which is where his strength is.

If the margins of error for these polls are 8-10%, the MOE for sub-samples has to be ridiculously high. I don't think these polls are very good.

[psychprofessor]

Oh gosh, look at the methodology for these polls - all Internet samples and most are "opt in." They follow the same people and re-contact them at regular intervals. I guess this is one of the reasons that the MOE is so high.

[psychprofessor]

Good to see that the Blaxicasians in SC are finally getting rid of their Hillary-addiction and are able to see the light at the end of the tunnel, by feeling the BERN.

Can you read? Clinton is getting 76% of the black vote in South Carolina in this poll. If anything, Sanders is solidifying the white vote, which is where his strength is.

If the margins of error for these polls are 8-10%, the MOE for sub-samples has to be ridiculously high. I don't think these polls are very good.

Very SOUND methodology.  You should go back to psych! 

Very good news for Mr. Sanders. 

I think I'm smart enough to discern a strange sample - which this is. All internet, most "opt-in" and the same people re-contacted at regular intervals. I'm sorry but if you had a background in research you would understand that a 10% MOE is useless.

[psychprofessor]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/how-geography-favors-hillary-clinton-iowa-n503451

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This is the exact reason why I think Hillary pulls out a win. This isn't a popular vote - all the Democratic party does is release the percentage of overall delegates that each candidate received. Because of her ground game and GOTV in precincts all across the state I think she'll have a higher percentage of delegates. And I don't think it's realistic to think that college students will leave school, travel back to their hometown, go caucus and then come back to school. They'll just all go to the precinct where school is which diminishes its impact.

Thanks for sharing the article.

[psychprofessor]

Maybe in the number of delegates. Certainly not in the number of votes.
The media will report the votes.

You fundamentally misunderstand how the Democratic Caucuses work. There is no vote number recorded or reported to the media, only attendance and delegate percentages.

I often wonder if this is why the DMR polls are more in line with the results than everyone else - I think most pollsters just poll Iowa and report popular vote percentages. I wonder if DMR has some type of formula where they can then anticipate regionally where votes are coming from and apply a statistical model to delegate percentages.