IA/NH/SC/FL/GA/TX-CBS/Yougov: Sanders leads IA/NH; Clinton leads SC; Trump leads

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/how-geography-favors-hillary-clinton-iowa-n503451

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[YPestis25]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/how-geography-favors-hillary-clinton-iowa-n503451

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Huh, I thought it was 21% and not 12%. Regardless, they're exactly right, if Sanders doesn't improve his numbers in the smaller counties, he'll have a tough time actually pulling a win next Monday. It'll be interesting to see the regional breakdown in the next DMR poll.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/sanders-iowa-2016-strategy-hole-217997

27% of his supporters are in a concentrated area. Those places make up 21% of caucus participants and a paltry 12% of delegates.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/sanders-iowa-2016-strategy-hole-217997

27% of his supporters are in a concentrated area. Those places make up 21% of caucus participants and a paltry 12% of delegates.

Where'd the 12% figure come from?

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/how-geography-favors-hillary-clinton-iowa-n503451
New article just now.

[IceSpear]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/sanders-iowa-2016-strategy-hole-217997

27% of his supporters are in a concentrated area. Those places make up 21% of caucus participants and a paltry 12% of delegates.

I almost forgot the utterly ridiculous way the Iowa "results" are reported for the Democrats. Even if it ends up helping Hillary, it's obscene.

[psychprofessor]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/how-geography-favors-hillary-clinton-iowa-n503451

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This is the exact reason why I think Hillary pulls out a win. This isn't a popular vote - all the Democratic party does is release the percentage of overall delegates that each candidate received. Because of her ground game and GOTV in precincts all across the state I think she'll have a higher percentage of delegates. And I don't think it's realistic to think that college students will leave school, travel back to their hometown, go caucus and then come back to school. They'll just all go to the precinct where school is which diminishes its impact.

Thanks for sharing the article.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

I'm loving the confusion of the posters that thought Bernie never had a chance!

[IceSpear]

I'm loving the confusion of the posters that thought Bernie never had a chance!

People said Bernie never had a chance in Iowa?

[DrScholl]

Looks like Clinton might have Sanders beat in geography. Good work on the part of her campaign in organizing better.

[The Other Castro]

Looks like Clinton might have Sanders beat in geography. Good work on the part of her campaign in organizing better.

Unless Sanders has some serious ground-game surge or this current geography picture is inaccurate, it does appear that he will have a tough time winning Iowa.

[Ljube]

Looks like Clinton might have Sanders beat in geography. Good work on the part of her campaign in organizing better.

Maybe in the number of delegates. Certainly not in the number of votes.
The media will report the votes.

[Ebsy]

Maybe in the number of delegates. Certainly not in the number of votes.
The media will report the votes.

You fundamentally misunderstand how the Democratic Caucuses work. There is no vote number recorded or reported to the media, only attendance and delegate percentages.

[Ljube]

Maybe in the number of delegates. Certainly not in the number of votes.
The media will report the votes.

You fundamentally misunderstand how the Democratic Caucuses work. There is no vote number recorded or reported to the media, only attendance and delegate percentages.

Ah, OK. Sorry. My mistake then.

[psychprofessor]

Maybe in the number of delegates. Certainly not in the number of votes.
The media will report the votes.

You fundamentally misunderstand how the Democratic Caucuses work. There is no vote number recorded or reported to the media, only attendance and delegate percentages.

I often wonder if this is why the DMR polls are more in line with the results than everyone else - I think most pollsters just poll Iowa and report popular vote percentages. I wonder if DMR has some type of formula where they can then anticipate regionally where votes are coming from and apply a statistical model to delegate percentages.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Looks like Clinton might have Sanders beat in geography. Good work on the part of her campaign in organizing better.

Lol what?? Clinton has moved everyone to Iowa she has virtually no ground game anywhere else...this also comes from people on her team.

[The Other Castro]

Looks like Clinton might have Sanders beat in geography. Good work on the part of her campaign in organizing better.

Lol what?? Clinton has moved everyone to Iowa she has virtually no ground game anywhere else...this also comes from people on her team.

Geography within Iowa...

[Ebsy]

Okay, I decided to look at the numbers. NBC states that there are 1401 county delegates apportioned this cycle, but didn't include the actual apportionment list. I used Iowa Democratic Party apportionment rules to apportion the delegates myself starting from the 1401 number(2012 Obama vote + 2014 Hatch vote/total Hatch+Obama vote * 1401, then rounding) and came up with what is probably a fairly accurate delegate apportionment. Adding the delegates for Story, Johnson, and Black Hawk Counties, I got them being apportioned 14.8% of delegates. I'm guessing the variation is due to mistakes on my part.

Even if they are off by 2% or so, NBC is right in that if Sanders support is extremely concentrated in these 3 counties, he is going to be in serious trouble on caucus night.

[Zanas]

I don't get why the three reported polls for Democrats are showed to have 8-9 percentage points margins of error, which would point to sample sizes of 120 to 150 respondents, which would be untrustworthy as fukc, whereas when you look at the actual poll the samples for these polls are actually of around 500 likely voters, which is a bit better, and gives a MoE of around 4.5 pp.

You would think the pollster would be careful about what numbers he posts for the MoEs, but then again nobody knows what they are and how they work so perhaps they just don't care.

[RI]

Are we getting hints of a last minute Rubio surge?  An effective Trump vs. Rubio 2 way from SC on could be quite competitive.

Eh, not really. He's at pretty much the same level in both IA and NH that he's been at since more or less since October (10-15%).

[IceSpear]

Are we getting hints of a last minute Rubio surge?  An effective Trump vs. Rubio 2 way from SC on could be quite competitive.

Not really, but we might get one after the media does their usual spam about how he won the debate.