Jim Davis and Scott Madoxx

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

They seem to be the dem. frontrunners for dem. nomination for gov. of florida.  Do ether of them have a chance?  why or why not?

[Ben Meyers]

Having parents who are very involved in FL politics, I get to interact with candidates regularly.

The most likely GOP nominee is Charlie Crist, but could also be Tom Gallahger.  Both are pretty much the same, anyway.

Davis and Maddox have different strengths.  They are sorta like Joe Lieberman and Howard Dean.  Jim Davis is moderate but uncharismatic, and Scott Maddox is very liberal but charismatic.

Maddox also has a few skeletons in his closet.  Davis can provide a moderate voting record and an all-American, honest lifestyle.

I think that Davis will win the Dem nomination, and will do better than Maddox, possibly win.

In a Crist vs. Davis race, both would get at least 47%.  I think that it would be fought vigorously, but Crist would pull out at the end with a victory of either 50% to 49% or 51% to 48%.

In a Gallagher vs. Davis case, Davis would do better.  Gallagher has less name recognition than Attorney General Crist.  I think that would be a Davis victory of about 51% to 48%, maybe 52% to 47%.

In a Crist vs. Maddox race, Crist would have a big leg up.  He would capitalize on Maddox's questionable past and his very liberal views.  Maddox would use a barnstorming campaign, sorta Trumanesque, to fire up the state.  I think that it would be a Crist victory of either 53% to 46% or 52% to 47%.

The Gallagher vs. Maddox race would be the closest one.  I think Gallagher would focus on the same things Crist would, but less effectively, while Maddox would wage the same, barnstorming campaign.  I think that it would be 50% to 49% with either candidate winning.

Other candidates on both sides are most likely not going to win, but they are Toni Jennings and Rod Smith.  Each would lose to the frontrunners of the other side.

[No more McShame]

Garfield endorses Davis... It's all over!

[socaldem]

Ben,

Thanks for your analysis.  It makes me feel somewhat better about the race because I've been concerned that the Dems would get trounced no matter what.  So Davis does have hope.

Now, I'd be curious to know more about the dynamics of the Republican primary.

[AuH2O]

Crist will win.