Japan 2016 - July 10
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jaichind
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« Reply #350 on: July 05, 2016, 06:59:35 PM »
« edited: July 06, 2016, 07:26:08 AM by jaichind »

Final 共同(Kyodo) projection



LDP-KP going from 73 to 74 and ORA going from 5 to 6 so a net swing toward the pro-constitutional change bloc.   Kyodo seems to double down on a massive around 55.5% PR vote share LDP-KP.  This projection is slightly more consistent by having LDP-KP and ORA winning a net increase of 2 district seats from its previous projection.  Still the district result does not jive with this sort of PR vote share.  Also a PR vote share of 55.5% would nearly match the massive 2001 Koizumi landslide when LDP-KP-NCP won 55.9% of the PR vote.  But Koizumi cabinet enjoyed a 77/9 approval rating back in 2001 elections.  

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-9

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                20                 39.5%                40                     60
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    8                 16.0%                  6                     14
ORA                 3                    6.0%                  3                       6
DP                 11                  21.5%                16                     27
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  5                  10.0%                 4                       9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 164, 2 more than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 170.
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jaichind
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« Reply #351 on: July 06, 2016, 06:06:36 AM »
« Edited: July 06, 2016, 07:08:47 PM by jaichind »

Final 読売(Yomiuri)  projection



The chart is not clear but if you read their article you can extrapolate their medium projection.

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 22-10 (no change)

LDP-KP goes from 67 to 68 while ORA stays at 8.   This projection is converging to other media projections with a slight anti-LDP bias.

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 36.0%                36                     54
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 5                 10.0%                   3                       8
DP                 10                  20.0%                20                     30
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  1                    2.0%                 0                       1
JCP                  6                  12.0%                 2                       8
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     5                       5    (2 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 160, 2 less than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 166, 4 more than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.

Yomiuri poll also shows that LDP is strong in the youth and the very elderly.  Good news for DP is that the youth will not turn out.  DP has to hope for a moderate increase in turnout which will turn out marginal middle age voters which would most likely vote DP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #352 on: July 06, 2016, 06:44:25 AM »

Level of relative support for Constitutional change (in Blue) seems to be highest in the youth and very elderly.  People in the 50s seems to the most opposed (in Red) to Constitutional change. 

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jaichind
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« Reply #353 on: July 06, 2016, 07:16:27 AM »
« Edited: July 06, 2016, 07:27:59 AM by jaichind »

東京新聞 (Tokyo News) projection



1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-9
The non-DP 1 seat district independent opposition seems to be doing well while DP is not doing well in the 1 seat districts.

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                19                 37.5%                39                     58
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 3                   6.0%                  3                       6
DP                 11                  21.5%                16                     27
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 3                     10
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     5                       5    (2 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 162, exactly at 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 168.
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jaichind
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« Reply #354 on: July 06, 2016, 08:17:35 AM »

Final ニコニコ (Nico) projection.  Nico is a Japan version of Youtube whose election projections based on surveys of their users in 2013 and 2014 were almost dead on.  Their projection for LDP-KP went from 71 to 69 while ORA stayed at 8 from June



1 seat districts LDP-opposition 22-10
The non-DP 1 seat district independent opposition seems to be doing well while DP is not doing well in the 1 seat districts.

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 36.0%                37                     55
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 4                   8.0%                  4                       8
DP                 10                  20.0%                17                     27
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  1                    2.0%                 0                       1
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 3                     10
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     5                       5    (2 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 161, 1 seat away from 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 167, which would exceed 2/3 majority by 5 seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #355 on: July 06, 2016, 08:42:24 PM »
« Edited: July 21, 2016, 03:27:24 PM by jaichind »

Final 朝日 (Asahi) projections

LDP-KP flat at 71 while ORA goes from 7 to 8 so net increase of 1 for pro-constitutional change bloc.  ORA vote share surges as JCP declines from the previous projection.



1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-10

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                19                 37.5%                37                     56
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     1                       1
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 5                  10.0%                  3                       8
DP                 11                  21.5%                19                     30
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  5                  10.0%                 2                       7
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)


This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 163, 1 more than 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 169.

They also had some graphs showing shifts in various battleground prefectures since their last survey



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jaichind
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« Reply #356 on: July 06, 2016, 08:48:57 PM »

In a sign of LDP disunity, Tokyo LDP MP 小池 百合子 (Koike Yuriko), former Minister of Defense  MP from Abe first term in 2007 announces that she will run for Tokyo governor regardless of if she gains the support of the LDP to run.  She always had a poor relationship with Abe and this could be the first shots of an eventual post-Abe world.   Given the fact that is sort of a maverick in the LDP she is unlikely to be backed either the Tokyo LDP nor the national LDP.  This means that the LDp will be split in the upcoming Tokyo governor election even as DP-PLP-SDP-JCP are still committed to run a unity opposition candidate.
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jaichind
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« Reply #357 on: July 07, 2016, 07:34:20 AM »

Poll from 栃木(Tochigi) for PR section and comparing it to a similar poll right before 2013 elections



LDP+ PR vote goes from 38.8% when polled in 2013 (actual result was 45.24%) and goes to 42.2%  This in theory is good news for LDP but in reality is not that great of a news.  YP ran in 2013 and given YP has a strong local bias in Tochigi (Watanabe is from Tochigi) it won 23.22% in 2013 (it polled 14.9% in the 2013 poll.)   YP is now defunct and LDP should have picked up most of the YP support.  To be up 3.4% in the poll relative to the 2013 is not that good of a news.  My model has LDP+ PR winning 55.85% in Tochigi which looks pretty much in-line with this poll. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #358 on: July 07, 2016, 10:53:20 AM »

山形(Yamagata) poll on PR section relative to an equivalent poll right before the 2013 elections



It has LDP-KP going from 41.5% (back in 2015 LDP-KP eventually got 50.86% on the PR section) to 34.3%.  Very large number of undecideds which I feel will mostly break toward the opposition.  TPP is a major issue in Yamagata this time and LDP will get hit by it.  My model has LDP-KP PR getting 45.64% this time around which as long as the undecideds mostly break for opposition is in-line with this poll.
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #359 on: July 07, 2016, 11:24:36 AM »
« Edited: July 07, 2016, 05:39:49 PM by jaichind »

Final yet still astounding Yahoo projection.

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 28-4

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                16                 32.0%                45                     61
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    8                 16.0%                  2                     10
ORA                 5                  10.0%                  3                       8
DP                 12                  24.0%                14                     26
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  1                    2.0%                 0                       1
JCP                  5                  10.0%                 6                     11
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     3                       3    (1 DP, 1 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 163, 1 more than 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 169.

Just like the previous Yahoo projection from late June it calls for KP and DP doing well on the PR section while there is wholesale defection from KP in the district vote for JCP on the peace platform causing a complete collapse of KP in the multi-member districts to the benefit of JCP.  Moderate hawks in DP also defect en masse in the district vote to LDP causing an opposition collapse in the 1- member districts.

To Yahoo's credit their projection in 2013 projection was pretty stop on although their 2014 projection was way off, especially in overestimating the KP PR vote.  

PR section


District



Total result
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jaichind
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« Reply #360 on: July 07, 2016, 02:48:08 PM »
« Edited: July 08, 2016, 06:51:58 AM by jaichind »

Gendai or Modern magazine published a table of all key prefectures and poll results from different media surveys plus the "top secret" LDP survey.  




                      
                                  LDP   読売(Yomiuri)  朝日(Asahi)  毎日(Mainichi)  日経(Nikkei) 共同(Kyodo)  NHK
北海道(Hokkaido)  (elect 3)                    
 LDP                                        27.7                27               38.7             22               25            22.4
 LDP                                        14.7                12                 8.4             13               17            20.5  
 DP                                          22.0                18              21.3              24               13            18.6
 DP                                          22.3                16              19.6              25               27            23.1
 JCP                                          9.7                  7                 9.0              14                9              9.8
青森(Aomori)
 LDP                          43         49.1                41               55.1              46              49             49.3
 DP                            46         49.8               44                43.3             52               49             49.6
岩手(Iwate)
 LDP                          35        40.8                35                54.1             39               45             38.7
 Ind (PLP)                  49        54.6                43                44.1             55               48             58.6
宮城(Miyagi)
 LDP                          40        50.0                40                44.9             48               49            47.9
 DP                            50        48.4                50                53.9             50               48            50.1
秋田(Akita)
 LDP                                      57.3                                    64.4             54               49           55.1
 DP                                        41.6                                    33.4             45               48           40.8
山形(Yamagata)
 LDP                          34        45.5               40                 40.5             44               44           38.4
 Ind(DP)                    56        53.2               53                 58.3             54               53           60.6
福島(Fukushima)
 LDP                         41         50.6              42                  53.6             48              47            46.1
 DP                           46         48.2              55                  44.2             50              49            52.2
埼玉(Saitama) (elect 3)
 LDP                                      42.2              34                  35.8            32               34            40.4
 KP                                        21.0              14                  24.7            22               20            20.9
 DP                                        16.8              28                  17.0            19               18            11.6
 JCP                                       12.9              16                  15.2            17               17            20.9
千葉(Chiba) (elect 3)
 LDP                                      39.9              30                  42.7            30               24            25.8
 LDP                                      19.4              16                  15.0            17               33            24.9
 DP                                        13.4              12                  16.2            16               19            21.7
 DP                                        12.0              22                    9.1            15                 5              9.9
 JCP                                       10.1                7                  12.8            14               11            14.7
東京(Tokyo) (elect 6)
 LDP                        20          19.1             17                   21.1            15               22            23.5    
 LDP                         7            8.4              13                     5.9              6                 6              3.6
 DP                           7            5.4                6                     9.2              7                 7            11.0
 DP                         18          33.3              25                   28.0            31               30            15.3
 KP                           9          11.3              10                     8.9            14               16            11.3
 JCP                        14          12.6              14                   12.6            15               13            14.0
 ORA                         4            3.8               9                      4.3             5                  6              8.0
神奈川(Kanagawa) (elect 4)
 LDP                                     42.8             30                    38.6            31               34            32.6
 DP                                      10.0               9                     13.3            12                7              7.7
 DP                                      10.4               6                      8.2             12               13            14.5
 KP                                      15.3             13                     12.7            18               15            16.5
 JCP                                       9.1             10                     11.4            12                7             14.4
 Ind(LDP)                               6.1               8                      6.0              8               11              6.2
 ORA                                      3.3                                       4.1              5                 6              4.0
山梨(Yamanashi)
 LDP                       39         45.1             45                    41.6            41               37             38.5
 DP                         38         40.8             41                    40.3            42               43             48.5
 DP rebel                  9          11.3            12                     17.4           14                16             11.4
新潟(Niigata)
 LDP                                    49.7             38                    53.1           47                45             52.2
 Ind(PLP)                             47.9             45                    45.2           49                52             42.8
長野(Nagano)
 LDP                      39          56.6             43                    51.4            53               45             41.6
 DP                        50          42.3             52                    47.1            45               50             56.4
愛知(Aichi) (elect 4)
 LDP                                    45.1             38                    45.5            33               31             34.2
 DP                                      19.2             13                    12.9            20               13               9.2
 DP                                       9.6               8                      6.9             13               17             20.9
 KP                                      12.4             15                    17.3            15               19             12.7
 JCP                                      9.0               7                      7.6             12                 5             12.7
 SDP                                     2.0                                       3.4               3                 4
 ORA                                     0.6               4                      2.0               1                 4              4.7
三重(Mie)
 LDP                      41         49.7               45                  57.6             47               48             57.3
 DP                        44         48.3               55                  37.9             50               46             41.8
滋賀(Shiga)
 LDP                      47         53.9               48                  53.9             50               50             52.3
 DP                        41         43.5               35                  44.5             46               37             44.5
大阪(Osaka) (elect 4)
 LDP                                   29.8              25                   29.8             22               24             23.5
 DP                                      7.4                 6                  10.0               9                 8               9.4
 KP                                     15.6              15                   14.1             17              14              12.7
 JCP                                    11.7               9                     9.0              14              16              13.2
 ORA                                  18.6              17                   23.4             20               24              29.6
 ORA                                   13.0             10                     9.9             15               11                9.1
兵庫(Hyōgo) (elect 3)
 LDP                                   39.0             40                   38.9             28               35              33.1
 DP                                     15.0             13                   15.1             17               15              16.7
 KP                                     18.1             20                   14.8             20               17              14.5
 JCP                                     8.0               9                      9.6             11                 9              12.0
 ORA                                  18.2              17                   18.9             21               20              21.5
愛媛(Ehime)            
 LDP                    45           55.9             50                   55.4             53               41              50.5
 Ind(DP)              46           43.5             46                   43.3             46               55              48.1
大分(Ōita)
 LDP                   44            50.0             48                   52.8             47               48              47.0
 DP                     42            48.0??         44                   44.6             47               51              50.9
沖縄(Okinawa)
 LDP                                   43.3                                    35.9             42               38              36.8
 Ind(AO)                             54.1                                    61.6             54               57              60.7
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jaichind
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« Reply #361 on: July 08, 2016, 06:22:47 AM »
« Edited: July 13, 2016, 06:04:03 PM by jaichind »

A lot of these media survey polls plus the "top secret" LDP polls I think might be made up or just derivatives from other polls done.  Looking at these numbers it seems that there are a lot a bias for name recognition and the bandwagon effect especially in non-competitive seats.  Even in competitive seats it seems that there are polls which greatly exaggerate the size gap.  In competitive seats one can just throw out large lead polls.

If for every prefecture, one throws out the two most extreme polls in either direction and then take the average, one gets a district projection count similar to my: LDP 39 Ind(LDP) 0 KP 7 DP 19 ORA 2 JCP 3 Ind(opposition) 3.  We match seat by seat a well with the exception of 青森(Aomori) where this media poll-of-poll yields a DP victory, 新潟(Niigata) where poll-of-poll project a LDP victory, 三重(Mie) where the media poll-of-poll yields a LDP victory, and 大分(Ōita) where the media poll-of-polls yields a LDP victory.  I have it exactly the opposite.  Of course in all three cases the poll-of-polls averages for both were very close so it really could go either way.  Also in 大阪(Osaka) the media poll-of-polls very narrowly has JCP beating out ORA for the 4th seat which matches myself but it is gap is tiny.  Same with 山梨(Yamanashi) where the media poll-of-poll yield a DP victory which matches that of my projection but the margin is tiny.

If we then take the consensus PR seat shart (which greatly deviates from my projection) of LDP 18 KP 7 ORA  4 DP 11 SDP 1 JCP 7.  One gets

1- seats LDP-opposition 24-8

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 35.5%                39                     57
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 4                    8.0%                  2                       6
DP                 11                  21.5%                19                     30
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 3                     10
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     3                       3    (1 DP, 1 PLP, 1 AO)

This media raw poll-of-polls approach gives us LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 161, 1 less than 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 167 which is 5 more than the 2/3 majority.

Raw data of the poll-of-polls averages
北海道(Hokkaido)  (elect 3) (LDP vote share behind DP which is unexpected)
 LDP             22.8
 LDP             15.1
 DP               20.7
 DP              21.6
 JCP             10.1
青森(Aomori) (very close)
 LDP            46.3
 DP              47.7
岩手(Iwate) (larger than expected defeat for LDP)
 LDP            39.0
 Ind(PLP)     49.9
宮城(Miyagi)
 LDP            46.0
 DP              50.4
秋田(Akita)  (I am cheating on this one, 朝日(Asahi) did not poll here so I only threw out one poll)
 LDP            53.9
 DP              43.9
山形(Yamagata) (what a blowout of LDP, unexpected)
 LDP            40.8
 Ind(DP)      54.9
福島(Fukushima)
 LDP            46.5
 DP              49.1
埼玉(Saitama) (elect 3)
 LDP            36.1
 DP              21.1
 KP              17.7
 JCP             15.5
千葉(Chiba) (elect 3) (unexpected LDP landslide)
 LDP             30.7
 LDP             22.5
 DP               18.2
 DP                 9.8
 JCP              13.1
東京(Tokyo) (elect 6)  (unexpected weak performance by LDP here, Renho bandwagon effect?)
 LDP             19.9
 LDP               6.2
 DP                 7.5
 DP               25.5              
 KP               12.3
 JCP              13.9
 ORA               5.4
神奈川(Kanagawa) (elect 4) (LDP unexpectedly and unreasonably strong here)
 LDP             35.6
 DP               11.1
 DP                9.2
 KP               14.8
 JCP              10.6
 Ind(LDP)       7.0
 ORA              4.1
山梨(Yamanashi) (DP rebel doing unusually well and must be eating into LDP votes too)
 LDP             39.9
 DP               40.9
 DP rebel      13.7
新潟(Niigata) (ultra close)
 LDP             48.7
 Ind(PLP)      48.5
長野(Nagano)
 LDP             46.3
 DP               48.8
愛知(Aichi) (elect 4)  (LDP a good deal stronger relative to DP than expected)
 LDP              37.6
 DP               15.4
 DP               12.9
 KP               14.4
 JCP               2.4
三重(Mie)
 LDP             48.6
 DP               46.0
滋賀(Shiga) (ORA vote seems to be going to LDP)
 LDP             51.4
 DP               42.1
大阪(Osaka) (elect 4) (very close between JCP and ORA's second and weaker candidate)
 LDP             25.1
 DP                8.6
 KP              14.7
 JCP             11.3
 ORA            22.5
 ORA            11.0
兵庫(Hyōgo) (elect 3)
 LDP             32.2
 DP               15.5
 KP               17.5
 JCP               9.4
 ORA            17.5
愛媛(Ehime) (a big surprise that this is this close, should be LDP landslide)
 LDP             50.9
 Ind(DP)       45.9
大分(Ōita)
 LDP             47.2
 DP               46.4
沖縄(Okinawa)   (I am cheating on this one, 朝日(Asahi) did not poll here so I only threw out one poll)
 LDP             38.2
 Ind(AO)       58.3
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jaichind
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« Reply #362 on: July 08, 2016, 09:25:44 PM »

Realpolitics Japan shows various media agency's assessments of 1- seat districts and how their assessments has changed over the last couple of weeks. 



読売新聞(Yomiuri) LDP 16 Tossup 13 Opposition 3 -> LDP 17 Tossup 12 Opposition 3
日経新聞(Nikkei)  LDP 16 Tossup 14 Opposition 2 -> LDP 19 Tossup 11 Opposition 2
朝日 (Asahi) LDP 20 Tossup 4 Opposition 8  ->  LDP 20 Tossup 5 Opposition 7
産経新聞 (Sankei) LDP 22 Tossup 2 Opposition 8 -> LDP 20 Tossup 8 Opposition 4
共同通信社 (Kyodo) LDP 22 Opposition 10 -> LDP 22 Tossup 8 Opposition 2

All of them show a shift toward LDP.  All of them seems to have detected a swing toward LDP from ORA and anti-JCP DP voters toward LDP provoked by the JCP MP statement about the military budget being a "budget to murder people."  My own model also have been adjusted for greater voting by ORA for LDP where ORA is not running.  My projection of 1- district has gone from 21-11 from a couple of weeks to 22-10.   Using the category of LDP-Tossup-Opposition right now I am at LDP 19 Tossup 9 Opposition 4. 
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« Reply #363 on: July 09, 2016, 06:07:22 AM »

Early voting now at over 13 million votes which would put early voting turnout at around 13%.  This is an increase of 24% from 2013 mostly due to an increase in early voting booths.    In a bad sign for LDP in 青森(Aomori), early voting there is up 64%.  If overall turnout is around 51%-52% then LDP-KP and JCP should do well.  If it is up to 54%-55% then that is a positive sign for DP and to some extent ORA.
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« Reply #364 on: July 09, 2016, 06:42:45 AM »
« Edited: August 03, 2016, 05:27:10 PM by jaichind »

Final 日刊ゲンダイ (Nikkan Gendai) projection.  

Nikkan Gendai has, in this cycle, heen the most negative on LDP.  Now even it has abandoned me in projecting a fairly large LDP PR vote, mostly partly based on a collapse of the ORA vote.  At this stage I am pretty much alone in projecting a LDP-KP PR vote share that is not close to 50%



1- seats LDP-opposition 23-9

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 36.0%                38                     56
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 3                    6.0%                  1                       4
DP                 11                  22.0%               22                     33
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  1                    2.0%                 0                       1
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 2                       9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     3                       3    (1 DP, 1 PLP, 1 AO)

This means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 158, 4 less than 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 164 which is 2 more than the 2/3 majority.
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« Reply #365 on: July 09, 2016, 07:14:20 AM »
« Edited: July 09, 2016, 08:03:12 AM by jaichind »

Someone posted a chart of seat count projection for each party based on turnout.   OPP is opposition bloc of SDP+PLP+anti-LDP independents.  While I do not agree with exact number it does give a good sense of the relative strengths of each party with different ranges of turnout.

        DP JCP ORA LDP KP OPP LDP+  Constitution change
45% 21  10  *6  65  15  *4    80               86
46% 22  *9  *7  64  15  *4    79               86
47% 23  *9  *7  63  15  *4    78               85
48% 25  *8  *8  61  14  *4    75               83
49% 26  *8  *8  60  14  *5    74               82
50% 27  *8  *8  58  14  *6    72               80
51% 28  *8  *8  57  14  *6    71               79
52% 30  *7  *8  56  14  *6    70               78
53% 31  *7  *8  55  14  *6    69               77
54% 32  *7  *9  54  13  *6    67               76
55% 34  *6  *9  53  13  *6    66               75
56% 35  *6  10  52  12  *6    64               74
57% 36  *6  10  51  12  *6    63               73
58% 37  *7  *9  50  12  *6    62               71
59% 37  *7  10  49  12  *6    61               71
60% 38  *7  *9  49  12  *6    61               70           
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« Reply #366 on: July 09, 2016, 08:06:26 AM »

Cousin is apparently voting ORA. He thinks there is a JCP surge, but it's all anecdotal evidence.
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jaichind
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« Reply #367 on: July 09, 2016, 09:50:27 AM »
« Edited: July 09, 2016, 10:07:23 AM by jaichind »

With most media and political analyst projecting LDP-KP-ORA will cross or get very close to the 78 seats necessary for LDP-KP-ORA-PJK to get to 162 of 2/3 majority, SEALD is making one last push to prevent this.  SEALD is the grassroots anti-new security law group which organized mass protests last year against the new security law.  SEALD also pretty much organized/forced JP-PLP-SDP-JCP to come together and run a common candidate in all 32 single district seats.  The hawkish Right claim that SEALD is a front organization for North Korea and controlled by ethnic Koreans.

Anyway, looking at where SEALD is making appeals gives us a good idea how they judge the election and where they practically are pushing tactical voting.  



SEALD is making, for single member districts, a GOTV drive for 青森(Aomori), 秋田(Akita), 新潟(Niigata), 長野(Nagano), 山梨(Yamanashi), 滋賀(Shiga), 三重(Mie), 愛媛(Ehime), and 大分(Ōita).  I like the fact that they agree with me that Akita and Shiga are in play while most media outfits has written them off already for the opposition.  They also must feel that Northern prefectures 岩手(Iwate), 宮城(Miyagi), 山形(Yamagata), and 福島(Fukushima) are in the bag along with 沖縄(Okinawa).  For Miyagi, Yamagata, and Fukushima SEALD might have also made the calculation that TPP will lead LDP voters to defect to the opposition and that an appeal by SEALD on the Constitution revision issue might backfire on these hawkish LDP voter who might otherwise defect to the opposition on the TPP issue.

For the multi-member district, SEALD is calling for

1) A vote for the JCP candidate in 埼玉(Saitama).  Here LDP and DP will win a seat for sure.  DP tactical voting with its excess votes for JCP might help it beat out KP for the third and last seat.  SEALD got this dynamic right but most likely JCP will not get to 20% to beat out KP.
2) A vote for the second DP candidate in 東京 (Tokyo).  Here SEALD also has the tactical voting dynamics right. DP's Renho and the JCP both have fairly large base so both are assured a win.  LDP and KP both will also win a seat each for sure.  It comes down to the second DP, second LDP and ORA candidate fighting for the last two seats.  SEALD is correct in dumping their resources in GOTV for the second DP candidate to ensure a 3rd seat for the anti-Constitutional change opposition.
3) Evenly distribute vote for a DP candidate or JCP candidate in 神奈川(Kanagawa).  Here LDP and KP will win a seat for sure.  LDP is backing an ex-YP incumbent to run as an independent.  Two DP candidates and JCP are running as well.  SEALD is correct in pushing GOTV for the stronger of the DP candidate and the JCP to ensure that the anti-Constitutional change opposition wins 2 seats out of 4.
4) Evenly distribute vote for a DP candidate or JCP candidate in 愛知(Aichi).  Here  LDP and KP will win a seat for sure. DP is running two candidates along with JCP.  ORA-TCJ is also in the run as well.  It seems that ORA backed TCJ candidate is really going nowhere so the anti-Constitutional change opposition are pretty much a lock to win 2 out of 4.  What SEALD is really doing here is get the JCP candidate to get election over the more centrist and weaker DP candidate.  
5) Vote for JCP in 大阪(Osaka).  Here LDP, KP, and ORA will all win a seat.  A second ORA candidate is trying to win the last seat for a clean sweep for the pro-Constitutional change bloc.  DP has declined over the years in Osaka to almost single digit support.  It makes sense for SEALD to call for tactical voting for JCP to beat back ORA.
6) Vote for DP in 兵庫(Hyōgo).  There LDP and ORA will win a seat each.  KP is running to capture the third seat.  Between DP and JCP candidates DP is stronger here so it make sense for SEALD to call for tactical voting for DP to block KP.  The changes are solid if not likely this will work.  LDP-KP relationship is not that good in Hyōgo and KP is running here for the first time and could stumble.  

I am surprised they are not including 北海道(Hokkaido) in their efforts in calling for a equal split vote for the two DP candidates to beat out LDP to win 2 out of 3 seats.  It could be they feel it is in the bag and/or Hokkaido will see a swing to the opposition due to TPP and it is best that SEALD does not provoke the hawkish LDP voters who are likely to vote opposition over TPP.

One way or another, if there are going to be tactical voting Sunday the direction of SEALD's GOTV efforts is an indication of how they will work out.
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« Reply #368 on: July 09, 2016, 02:57:56 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2016, 04:42:01 PM by jaichind »

Final projection from me.   I am pretty much going to double down on LDP-KP doing poorly on the PR section when compared to CW.  I give LDP-KP 44.5% in terms of PR vote and 65 seats overall.  The rest of Japan political pundit space has swung toward the LDP-KP which I feel if anything would trigger greater DP-JCP tactical voting.   At this stage I am pretty much alone in predicting this sort of showing for LDP-KP.  Everyone else has LDP-KP PR at at least around 50% if not greater.

For multi-member districts I put the result in vote share rank and will show runner up in brackets.  

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP DP DP  (LDP)
青森   Aomori             1             DP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP backed independent          
宮城   Miyagi               1            DP      
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             DP backed independent                          
福島   Fukushima       1             DP                            
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DP (JCP)                          
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP DP KP (JCP)                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DP (DP)                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP KP DP JCP  (LDP backed independent)            
山梨   Yamanashi       1             DP          
東京   Tokyo              6             DP LDP JCP KP LDP DP (ORA)    
新潟   Niigata             1             PLP backed independent                    
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DP  (JCP)                          
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP DP KP DP (JCP)                
三重   Mie                   1             DP                              
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP      
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP DP (JCP)    
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP ORA JCP (ORA)            
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP ORA DP (KP)
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DP (ORA)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP DP KP (JCP)                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             DP          
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1             AO backed independent    

This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 21-11

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                16                 31.00%               36                     52
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 13.50%                6                     13
ORA                 5                   9.50%                 2                      7
PJK                  0                   1.00%                 0                      0
NRP                 0                   0.50%                 0                      0
NPB                 0                   1.00%                 0                      0
HRP                 0                    0.50%                0                      0
DP                 12                  24.50%               22                    34
SDP                 1                    2.50%                0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.50%                0                       0
VPA                 0                     1.00%               0                       0
JCP                  7                  13.50%               3                      10
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 156, 6 less than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 162, exactly 2/3 majority.

Changes from last projection has TPP making an even greater impact in the North which made 青森(Aomori) flip from LDP to DP. Also greater tactical voting in 兵庫(Hyōgo) by JCP voters pushing DP over KP.

Also for 秋田(Akita) and 滋賀(Shiga) my projection finds the DP within striking distance of LDP even as CW gives neither any realistic shot at DP winning.

As for the CW projections I took the medium projection of media outfits, Japanese political discussion boards, and various political analysts.  

The main difference with my projection are

1) In 北海道(Hokkaido) the CW projection has LDP winning 2 seats out of 3 seats  Here the issue is how LDP will divide it votes among its 2 candidates relative to DP.  I also had LDP winning 2 out of 3 but ground reports I read say that DP will do a better job and win 2 seats despite a lower vote share.
2) In 山梨(Yamanashi) the CW projection has LDP winning because of the effect of the DP rebel in the race.  My projection says that DP will still win.
3) In 大阪(Osaka) the CW projection has ORA winning the last of 4 seats over my prediction of JCP.  I view JCP victory as the result of DP tactical voting for JCP.
4) In 大分(Ōita) the CW projection has LDP winning versus my projection of DP.  
5) In 青森(Aomori) the CW projection has LDP winning versus my projection of DP.
6) In 兵庫(Hyōgo) the CW projection has KP winning the last seat versus DP.

Out of all these differences significant minorities of various projections also share my positions on each one of these differences.  The longest shot would be 兵庫(Hyōgo).

Also CW has 愛媛(Ehime) neck-to-neck with LDP with a tiny edge.  My projection has LDP with a solid lead.

The medium CW projection:

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 24-8

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 36.00%               40                     58
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.00%                7                     14
ORA                 4                   7.75%                 3                      7
PJK                  0                   1.25%                 0                      0
NRP                 0                   0.50%                 0                      0
NPB                 0                   1.25%                 0                      0
HRP                 0                    0.50%                0                      0
DP                 11                  21.50%               17                    28
SDP                 1                    2.00%                0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.25%                0                       0
VPA                 0                     1.00%               0                       0
JCP                  7                  13.00%               2                        9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                        4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 163, 1 more than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 169.
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jaichind
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« Reply #369 on: July 09, 2016, 03:29:45 PM »

This is the Japanese version of "I side with"

http://nihonseiji.com/votematches/1

I took it and found that PLP is in theory the party I should support.  My results were:

PLP   59
SDP  55
JCP   53
KP    52
ORA  52
DP    48
PJK   40
LDP  39

I guess my score is mainly explained by my opposition to Abenomics and this QE heterodoxy by the BOJ.   Of course many of my answers where Libertarian in nature which then lowers my score among the center-left parties.  The result is my scores for each party are clustered around 50.
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jaichind
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« Reply #370 on: July 09, 2016, 05:38:19 PM »

Voting starts (actually around 37 min ago).  Overall weather is fairly mild with some short bursts of rain here or there.  A week ago weather forecasts had all of Japan raining the entire day.
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jaichind
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« Reply #371 on: July 09, 2016, 07:06:49 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2016, 07:12:58 PM by jaichind »

8AM report from Tokyo's 目黒区 (Meguro district)

http://www.city.meguro.tokyo.jp/gyosei/senkyo/sangiin/tohyosokuho.files/tohyosokuho.pdf

~400 people voted by 8AM when compared to ~200 in 2013
~5300 people voted by 9AM (2.29%) when compared to ~4400 in 2013 (1.59%)

Meguro is the type of district that DP needs to have higher turnout to have a chance.
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jaichind
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« Reply #372 on: July 09, 2016, 07:37:25 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2016, 07:42:07 PM by jaichind »

As of 9AM.  So far turnout in lower in several places when compared to 2013
大阪市 (Osaka City) 3.13% vs 3.85%
埼玉(Saitama) 2.68% vs 2.90%
神奈川(Kanagawa) 3.38% vs 3.53%
愛知(Aichi) 4.13% vs 4.19%

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Nathan
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« Reply #373 on: July 09, 2016, 07:51:40 PM »

Yikes. This is going to be bad.
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jaichind
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« Reply #374 on: July 09, 2016, 07:52:24 PM »

As of 9AM Tokyo turnout is up at 3.57% versus 3.21% in 2013.
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