SC PrimD: Other Source: Clinton up by 19 in SC

[psychprofessor]

First off, they are comparing their poll with a previous poll conducted in December by a different polling outfit. That just seems strange.

Second, 87% of respondents are likely to vote but what about the other 13%?

If Bernie doesn't reverse the numbers with African Americans he isn't going to have a chance. From this poll to Maryland's poll, the trend seems to be the more AA and Hispanic voters in a given state, the more likely Hillary has a lead.

Right now Sanders is winning white liberal men and younger voters. I am partial to Hillary and expect her to win the nomination but it doesn't take a genius to see where Sanders needs to make inroads.

[psychprofessor]

Let's see what happens with other polls.  I wish Bernie would sling a little mud here.  While he was getting arrested in Civil Rights marches Hillary was campaigning for Goldwater.  That's a fact and I don't see why it isn't fair game.  At the very least, Bernie should be pointing out that issues most concerning to the black community when you ask them are his life's work. 

The Clinton's have built many years of goodwill with the black community. In 2008, before Obama won Iowa, Blacks and Hispanics preferred Hillary. What ended up happening was that Obama won over liberal whites, young voters (like Bernie is now) but Blacks left Hillary in the dust once they saw that Obama had a chance. That really hurt Hillary - and allowed Obama to rack up delegates in states with large AA population.

The same thing is going to happen to Bernie if he doesn't make inroads.

Another interesting dynamic could be since a lot of primaries are proportional, AA populations are in more urban, higher delegate areas, Hillary will be able to rack up more delegates compared to her percentage overall in the state.

One of the reasons why I think she prevails in Iowa is because the delegate selection is proportional - Bernie's areas of concentration are in less delegate rich counties, which will hurt him.

[psychprofessor]

Let's see what happens with other polls.  I wish Bernie would sling a little mud here.  While he was getting arrested in Civil Rights marches Hillary was campaigning for Goldwater.  That's a fact and I don't see why it isn't fair game.  At the very least, Bernie should be pointing out that issues most concerning to the black community when you ask them are his life's work. 

Yes, but I mean in terms of how the caucus results in Iowa are reported. It isn't raw numbers in terms of popular vote, but percentage of delegates. I think that hurts Bernie because his areas of strength are in 3 counties.

The Clinton's have built many years of goodwill with the black community. In 2008, before Obama won Iowa, Blacks and Hispanics preferred Hillary. What ended up happening was that Obama won over liberal whites, young voters (like Bernie is now) but Blacks left Hillary in the dust once they saw that Obama had a chance. That really hurt Hillary - and allowed Obama to rack up delegates in states with large AA population.

The same thing is going to happen to Bernie if he doesn't make inroads.

Another interesting dynamic could be since a lot of primaries are proportional, AA populations are in more urban, higher delegate areas, Hillary will be able to rack up more delegates compared to her percentage overall in the state.

One of the reasons why I think she prevails in Iowa is because the delegate selection is proportional - Bernie's areas of concentration are in less delegate rich counties, which will hurt him.

The caucus process also hurts Hillary.  Smaller counties where only a couple of delegates are awarded?  60-40 for Hillary still means a 1-1 split.  There are factors at play on both sides that tend to skew the raw total towards being closer in the actual delegate count.

[psychprofessor]

Unsurprising that people basically misunderstand how the caucus process works.

Also, there's nothing to be worried about for Clinton in South Carolina.

Are you arguing the caucus process DOESN'T tend towards a delegate count closer than the raw total?  This is, how do you say, widely accepted.

No, I'm saying that the caucus process (in Iowa) doesn't favor Sanders at the moment, due to his incredibly concentrated support in college towns.

I agree. And because the way the vote will be reported is based on a percentage of delegates, I think that favors Hillary.

[psychprofessor]

Sanders is winning whites even in the deep south. Intriguing.

I would be careful of this poll. Internet only, huge number of undecided and only 87% certain to vote.