MD-Gonzales Research: Trump+17, Clinton+13 (user search)
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  MD-Gonzales Research: Trump+17, Clinton+13 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MD-Gonzales Research: Trump+17, Clinton+13  (Read 1600 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: January 19, 2016, 01:52:50 AM »

Where's the home state love for Carson and O'Malley?
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Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
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Posts: 44,073
United States


« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2016, 03:33:34 AM »

Just a reminder, she was running against a black man.
Thank you for making my point so eloquently.

Well it seemed like you were saying she's doing much better than in 2008, which is a little misleading because it doesn't tell the whole story. Clinton's base is heavily reliant on minority voters and Maryland is about 30% black so of course she should be leading there, just as Obama should have easily won Maryland. It's a little surprising she's only ahead this little relative to her national numbers given the large black population.

It's more a note that if Sanders can't convincingly win the states Obama did during the 2008 nomination fight that just barely won the nomination for him, how is he going to wrack up the delegates to win? I think the answer is pretty obvious.

I don't think Sanders has much of any chance to win the nomination.  But in a universe in which he did win the nomination, he wouldn't end up winning all of the same states that Obama won in 2008.  He would lose the states with the highest %age of the black vote (like Maryland, and the Southern states that Obama won in '08), while winning in places like California and Massachusetts that Clinton won in 2008.

So, bottom line, losing by double digits in some of the '08 Obama states doesn't by itself imply that Sanders is doomed.  (Though I do think he's doomed for other reasons.)
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