MD-Gonzales Research: Trump+17, Clinton+13
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  MD-Gonzales Research: Trump+17, Clinton+13
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Author Topic: MD-Gonzales Research: Trump+17, Clinton+13  (Read 1449 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: January 19, 2016, 01:40:30 AM »

GOP:

32% Trump
15% Cruz
14% Rubio
  9% Carson
  8% Christie
  4% Bush
  6% Others
13% Undecided

DEMs:

40% Hillary
27% Bernie
  5% Unidentified third man
28% Undecided

(Bernie leads White Democrats by 43-25, while Hillary leads Blacks 61-6)

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http://2qtvrz46wjcg34jx1h1blgd2.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/files/2016/01/Gonzales-Maryland-Poll-January-2016.pdf
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2016, 01:48:38 AM »

Strong numbers for both Clinton and TRUMP. Just a reminder, Clinton lost Maryland by 25 points last election.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2016, 01:52:50 AM »

Where's the home state love for Carson and O'Malley?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2016, 02:13:36 AM »

Strong numbers for both Clinton and TRUMP. Just a reminder, Clinton lost Maryland by 25 points last election.

Just a reminder, she was running against a black man.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2016, 02:15:39 AM »

Strong numbers for both Clinton and TRUMP. Just a reminder, Clinton lost Maryland by 25 points last election.

Just a reminder, she was running against a black man.
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Pyro
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« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2016, 02:15:49 AM »

28% Undecided Dems??
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2016, 02:25:55 AM »

Just a reminder, she was running against a black man.
Thank you for making my point so eloquently.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2016, 02:34:09 AM »

Just a reminder, she was running against a black man.
Thank you for making my point so eloquently.

Well it seemed like you were saying she's doing much better than in 2008, which is a little misleading because it doesn't tell the whole story. Clinton's base is heavily reliant on minority voters and Maryland is about 30% black so of course she should be leading there, just as Obama should have easily won Maryland. It's a little surprising she's only ahead this little relative to her national numbers given the large black population.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2016, 02:56:37 AM »

Just a reminder, she was running against a black man.
Thank you for making my point so eloquently.

Well it seemed like you were saying she's doing much better than in 2008, which is a little misleading because it doesn't tell the whole story. Clinton's base is heavily reliant on minority voters and Maryland is about 30% black so of course she should be leading there, just as Obama should have easily won Maryland. It's a little surprising she's only ahead this little relative to her national numbers given the large black population.

It's more a note that if Sanders can't convincingly win the states Obama did during the 2008 nomination fight that just barely won the nomination for him, how is he going to wrack up the delegates to win? I think the answer is pretty obvious.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2016, 03:33:34 AM »

Just a reminder, she was running against a black man.
Thank you for making my point so eloquently.

Well it seemed like you were saying she's doing much better than in 2008, which is a little misleading because it doesn't tell the whole story. Clinton's base is heavily reliant on minority voters and Maryland is about 30% black so of course she should be leading there, just as Obama should have easily won Maryland. It's a little surprising she's only ahead this little relative to her national numbers given the large black population.

It's more a note that if Sanders can't convincingly win the states Obama did during the 2008 nomination fight that just barely won the nomination for him, how is he going to wrack up the delegates to win? I think the answer is pretty obvious.

I don't think Sanders has much of any chance to win the nomination.  But in a universe in which he did win the nomination, he wouldn't end up winning all of the same states that Obama won in 2008.  He would lose the states with the highest %age of the black vote (like Maryland, and the Southern states that Obama won in '08), while winning in places like California and Massachusetts that Clinton won in 2008.

So, bottom line, losing by double digits in some of the '08 Obama states doesn't by itself imply that Sanders is doomed.  (Though I do think he's doomed for other reasons.)
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jfern
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« Reply #10 on: January 19, 2016, 03:35:24 AM »

Just a reminder, she was running against a black man.
Thank you for making my point so eloquently.

Well it seemed like you were saying she's doing much better than in 2008, which is a little misleading because it doesn't tell the whole story. Clinton's base is heavily reliant on minority voters and Maryland is about 30% black so of course she should be leading there, just as Obama should have easily won Maryland. It's a little surprising she's only ahead this little relative to her national numbers given the large black population.

It's more a note that if Sanders can't convincingly win the states Obama did during the 2008 nomination fight that just barely won the nomination for him, how is he going to wrack up the delegates to win? I think the answer is pretty obvious.

If Bernie wins California, he could lose several Obama states.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #11 on: January 19, 2016, 04:06:41 AM »

I think the funny thing here is the fact that O'MALLEY BEATS SANDERS for the black vote 8.3%-6.0%. There is definitely some catching up to do here. Also, I wish someone would go next door and poll Delaware so we don't have a Biden state left on the Democratic Primary maps.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2016, 07:55:17 AM »

Talk about a racial gap. Basically looking like a reversal of the 2008 primary.
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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
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« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2016, 11:11:27 AM »

New Poll: Maryland President by Gonzales Research on 2016-01-16

Summary:
Trump:
32%
Cruz:
15%
Rubio:
14%
Carson:
9%
Christie:
8%
Other:
9%
Undecided:
13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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mds32
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« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2016, 07:05:25 PM »

New Poll: Maryland President by Gonzales Research on 2016-01-16

Summary:
Trump:
32%
Cruz:
15%
Rubio:
14%
Carson:
9%
Christie:
8%
Other:
9%
Undecided:
13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details



Truly shows how far Carson has fallen.
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