The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Erc]

Oklahoma (R): March 1

Overview
43 Delegates (1.74% of total)
Closed Primary
15 District (Proportional, 15% threshold; WTA if majority)
28 At-Large (Proportional, 15% threshold; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

Three delegates are awarded from each of Oklahoma's five Congressional Districts.  If a candidate gets a majority of the vote in a CD (or is the only candidate to clear 15%), they receive all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, if three (or more) candidates place above 15% in a CD, the top three finishers each get one delegate.  If only two do, the winner gets two and the runner-up gets one.

If a candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, they receive all 28 At-Large delegates.  Otherwise, the delegates are awarded proportionally among all candidates receiving at least 15% of the statewide vote.  The exact manner in which this is done is not clear.  The GOP rules imply that each candidate receives delegates proportional to the share of the overall vote, rounded to the nearest delegate, à la New Hampshire; however, this would generically leave a number of delegates unassigned due to candidates not meeting the threshold. The appropriate section from the GOP rules:

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FHQ has clarified that the delegates left over after this procedure are left Uncommitted.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at District Conventions on April 16 and the State Convention on May 13-14.  This includes, crucially, the three Uncommitted delegates from the results below.

Results (3/2)

The candidates split the CD delegates 5-5-5.

At-Large, Cruz won 10 delegates, Trump 8, Rubio 7, and Uncommitted 3.  

Totals: Cruz 15, Trump 13, Rubio 12.

The Green Papers does not believe that the below-threshold votes are allocated to Uncommitted, and parcels them out among the three candidates appropriately.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound for all ballots until their candidate is "for any reason no longer a candidate."

Useful Links
The Green Papers: OK-R
Frontloading HQ: OK
OK GOP Rules
Oklahoma Statutes §26-20-104 G.

[Erc]

Tennessee (R): March 1

Overview
58 Delegates (2.35% of total)
Open Primary
27 District (Winner-Take-Most, 20% threshold)
31 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

Three delegates are awarded from each of Tennessee's nine Congressional Districts.  If a candidate gets two-thirds of the vote in a CD (or is the only candidate to clear 20%), they receive all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, the first place finisher receives two delegates while the runner-up receives one.

If a candidate receives two-thirds of the statewide vote (or is the only candidate to clear 20%), they receive all 31 At-Large delegates.  Otherwise, they are allocated among all candidates clearing 20%, proportional to their vote share among the threshold-clearing candidates.  Delegates are given out starting with the statewide winner, with all fractional delegates rounded up.

Results (as of 3/7)

Trump 33 - Cruz 16 - Rubio 9

Delegate Selection

The Congressional District delegates and half of the At-Large delegates are directly elected on the ballot; they needed to obtain the consent of the candidate they are pledged to in order to appear on the ballot under their name. The other half of the At-Large delegates selected by the State GOP Executive Committee on April 2, with advice from the Presidential campaigns.  If a campaign should not have enough delegates on the ballot, the Executive Committee will choose the remaining delegates.

Delegates

Trump:
[1] Mae Beavers
[2] Doris B. Arnold
[3] Robert Duvall
[4] Chad Blackburn
[5] William H. Beavers
[6] Karen Bennett
[7] Julie Brockman
[8...15] Chosen April 2
[1-1] David "Kent" Harris
[1-2] Betty Jo Kern
[2-1] Tim Hutchison
[2-2] Sam Maynard
[3-1] M. David Riden
[3-2] Richard L. Snead
[4-1] Larry Sims
[4-2] Jeff Peach
[5-1] Connie Hunter
[5-2] Ron McDow
[6-1] Chris Hughes
[6-2] Jerry Wayne Beavers
[7-1] Larry W. Cooper
[7-2] James Kenneth Eaton
[8-1] Joseph S. Coury
[8-2] Nichole Bufalino
[9-1] Terry Allen Roland
[9-2] Charlotte Bergmann

Cruz
[1] Joe Carr
[2] Steve Gill
[3] Lee Douglas
[4] Deborah Deaver
[5] Sheila Butt
[6...10] Chosen April 2
[1-1] B. Claire Crouch
[4-1] Edward M. Phillips Jr.
[6-1] Laura M. Baigert
[7-1] Sharon P. Strange
[8-1] Mick Wright
[9-1] Lynn Moss

Rubio
[1] Victor Ashe
[2] Beth Campbell
[3] Randy Ellis
[4...6] Chosen April 2
[2-1] Michael Hensley
[3-1] Randy Fairbanks
[5-1] Luke Elliott

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound for at least two ballots.  Delegates for withdrawn candidates still get to attend the convention; it's not entirely clear that they are released in that eventuality, though I will assume they are.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: TN-R
Frontloading HQ: TN
TN GOP Rules
Unofficial Delegate Ballot Results
TN Code §§2-13-307(b)

[Erc]

Texas (R): March 1

Overview
155 Delegates (6.27% of total)
Open Primary
108 District (Winner-Take-Most, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)
47 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

Three delegates are awarded from each of Texas' 36 Congressional Districts.  If a candidate gets a majority of the vote in a CD they receive all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, the first place finisher receives two delegates while the runner-up receives one.

If a candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, they receive all 47 At-Large delegates.  Otherwise, they are allocated among all candidates clearing 20%, proportional to their vote share among the threshold-clearing candidates.  All fractions are rounded down.  Any delegates left over after rounding are given one at a time to the highest placing candidates, in order, until all delegates are allocated.  If only one candidate places above 20% but no one has a majority, delegates are allocated proportionally between the winner and the runner-up in the same fashion.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are selected by the State Convention on May 14.

Results (3/2)

At-Large, Rubio failed to meet the threshold, and Cruz wins 30 to Trump's 17 delegates.

Cruz won all the CDs, including majorities in CDs 1 and 29, picking up another 74 delegates.

Rubio placed 2nd and above threshold in CDs 7, 16, and 32, picking up 3 delegates.

Trump placed 2nd in the remaining CDs, picking up 31 additional delegates.

Totals: Cruz 104, Trump 48, Rubio 3.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate withdraws, dies, or releases them.  Delegates are also bound on the second ballot if their candidate receives 20% of the total vote on the first ballot.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: TX-R
Frontloading HQ: TX
TX GOP Rules

[Erc]

Vermont (R): March 1

Overview
16 Delegates (0.65% of total)
Open Primary
16 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate receives a majority of the vote, they receive all 16 delegates.  Otherwise, the delegates are allocated among all candidates meeting a 20% threshold, proportional to the share of the vote among all threshold-meeting candidates.  Delegates are rounded to the nearest whole number; rounding errors are resolved by giving delegates to the winner or subtracting delegates from the lowest-placed finisher, as appropriate.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are selected by the State Convention on May 21.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot unless their candidate withdraws, suspends his campaign, or is not placed in nomination.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: VT-R
Frontloading HQ: VT
VT GOP Rules

[Erc]

Virginia (R): March 1

Overview
49 Delegates (1.98% of total)
Open Primary
49 At-Large (Proportional, no threshold)

Delegate Allocation

Delegates are allocated among all candidates, proportional to their share of the vote.  Delegates are rounded to the nearest whole number; rounding errors are resolved by giving delegates to (or taking them from) the candidates closest to (or furthest from) receiving an additional delegate.

Note that this mean any candidate receiving at least 1.02% of the vote (up to rounding errors) will be entitled to a delegate.  This raises the remote possibility that one of the dropouts could get a delegate (compare Paul's 0.7% result in New Hampshire). GILMENTUM?

Delegate Selection

Delegates are selected by the Congressional District Conventions from March through May, and by the State Convention on April 30.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot.  It seems that delegates bound to withdrawn candidates are still bound.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: VA-R
Frontloading HQ: VA
VA Delegate Allocation: GOP

[Erc]

Wyoming (R): February 16-April 16

Overview
29 Delegates (1.17% of total)
Closed Caucus (non-binding)
12 County
14 At-Large
3 RNC Members

Details

Wyoming, like Colorado and North Dakota, elected not to hold a Presidential Preference Poll at this year's caucus.  As a result, we will know next to nothing about the results on the night of the caucus itself.

Precinct caucuses are held across the state on a number of different days, currently ranging from February 16 (in Niobrara County) to March 1.  These elect delegates to the County Conventions; note that there is often only one precinct per county in Wyoming.

The 23 various County Conventions are held on March 12.  Twelve of these counties will select a delegate to Cleveland (Albany, Sweetwater, Uinta, Teton, Fremont, Hotsprings, Sheridan Platte, Campbell, Crook, Converse, Goshen, and Laramie) and twelve will select an alternate (the other eleven counties and Laramie again).  The county conventions also elect delegates to the State Convention (numbers shown here).  

The remaining 14 delegates are selected at the State Convention on April 14.   A slate of delegates is drawn up by the Nominating/Elections committee, though more names may be added from the floor.  All delegate candidates at the State Convention must inform the Convention of their Presidential Preference.

Candidates for National Convention Delegate may pledge themselves to a candidate prior to their nomination; according to their process submission to the RNC, this pledge is binding, though completely optional.  It is unclear how many ballots such a pledge is binding for.  If a candidate "isn't in the race in July," they are freed from their pledge, according to WY GOP chairman Matt Micheli.

RNC Members (unbound)

Matt Micheli
Marti Halverson
Greg Schaefer

County Convention Results (March 12)

Cruz 9 - Rubio 1 - Trump 1 - Uncommitted 1

Based on these results, I'm projecting a Cruz sweep of all 14 delegates at the State Convention.

Delegates:

Rubio (1):
Tammy Hooper - Cruz

Uncommitted (1):
Ogden Driskill.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: WY-R
Frontloading HQ: WY
WY GOP Bylaws
WY GOP Convention Details
Wyoming Precinct Caucus Schedule
RNC Process Book

[Erc]

March 1 Democratic Primaries: Part I

Delegate Allocation Overview

Unlike for the Republicans, where the specific math varies from state to state, the system for the Democrats is largely uniform.  In each jurisdiction (each CD, At-Large, and PLEO At-Large), the delegates are allocated among candidates meeting a 15% threshold, proportional to their share of the vote among candidates meeting that threshold.  Fractional delegates are rounded up, starting with the largest remainder, until all delegates are assigned.

Alabama (D)

Overview
60 Delegates (1.26% of total)
Open Primary
11 At-Large
7 PLEO At-Large
35 by CD
7 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 11 and 7 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 9 for CD 1; 5 for CDs 1, 2, 3; 4 for CDs 4, 5; 3 for CD 6.

Superdelegates

Clinton (4): Rep. Terri Sewell, Randy Kelley, Unzell Kelley, Janet May

Uncommitted (3): Chair Nancy Worley, Darryl Sinkfield, Vice Chair (Vacant)

The Green Papers: AL-D

American Samoa (D)

Overview
10 Delegates (0.21% of total)
Open Caucus
6 At-Large
4 Superdelegates

Details

The caucus takes place at the Tradewinds Hotel in Ottoville Village near Pago Pago.  6 delegates are allocated proportionally on the basis of the caucus vote.

Superdelegates

Clinton (4): Chair Fagafaga Daniel Langkilde, Vice Chair Galea'i Tuufuli, Clara Reid, Gov. Lolo Moliga

Sanders (1): Therese Hunkin

The Green Papers: AS-D

Arkansas (D)

Overview
37 Delegates (0.78% of total)
Open Primary
7 At-Large
4 PLEO At-Large
21 by CD
4 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 7 and 4 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 6 for CDs 2, 4; 5 for CD 1; 4 for CD 3.

Superdelegates

Clinton (5): Chair Vice Insalaco, Vice Chair Joyce Elliott, Dustin McDaniel, Krystal Thraikill, Lottie Shackelford

The Green Papers: AR-D

Georgia (D)

Overview
117 Delegates (2.46% of total)
Open Primary
22 At-Large
13 PLEO At-Large
67 by CD
15 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 22 and 13 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 7 for CD 5; 6 for CDs 4,13; 5 for CDs 1,2,6,12; 4 for CDs 3,7,8,9,10,11,14.

Superdelegates

Confirmed Clinton (11): Rep. Hank Johnson, Rep. John Lewis, Rep. David Scott, David Worley, Dan Halpern, Vice Chair Nikema Williams, Sally Rosser, Chair Dubose Porter, Wendy Davis, Kasim Reed, Pam Stephenson

Uncommitted (4): President Jimmy Carter, Rep. Sanford Bishop, Richard Ray, Louis Elrod

The Green Papers: GA-D

Massachusetts (D)

Overview
116 Delegates (2.44% of total)
Half-Open Primary
20 At-Large
12 PLEO At-Large
59 by CD
25 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 20 and 12 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 7 for CD 5,6,7,8,9; 6 for CDs 1,2,3,4.

Superdelegates


Clinton 17 - Sanders 1 - Uncommitted 7

according to Bloomberg.

Confirmed Clinton (16): Sen. Ed Markey, Rep. Michael Capuano, Rep. Katherine Clark, Rep. William Keatin, Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III, Rep. Stephen Lynch, Rep. Jim McGovern, Rep. Seth Moulton, Rep. Richard Neal, Rep. Niki Tsongas, Ex-DNC Chair Steve Grossman, Gus Bickford, Kate Donaghue, Ray Jordan, Elaine Kamarck, David O'Brien

Sanders (1): Ex-DNC Chair Paul G. Kirk, Jr.

Other DNC [8]: Ex-DNC Chair Debra DeLee, Chair Thomas McGee, Vice Chair Debra Kozikowski, Susan Thomson, Virginia Barnes, James Roosevelt, Alejandra Salinas

The Green Papers: MA-D


Minnesota (D)

Overview
93 Delegates (1.95% of total)
Open Caucus
17 At-Large
10 PLEO At-Large
50 by CD
16 Superdelegates

Details

Despite being a caucus state, delegates are allocated and bound based on the raw vote at the precinct caucuses; functionally, this is a primary with lower turnout.  Groups of 17 and 10 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 9 for CD 5; 7 for CDs 3,4; 6 for CDs 2,8; 5 for CDs 1,6,7.

Superdelegates

Clinton (13): Vice President Walter Mondale, Gov. Mark Dayton, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Sen. Al Franken, Rep. Tim Walz, Ken Martin, Nancy Schumacher, Rep. Betty McCollum, Rep. Rick Nolan, Marge Hoffa, Javier Morillo-Alicea, Rick Stafford, Lori Sellner

Sanders (2): Rep. Keith Ellison, Rep. Collin Peterson

Uncommitted (1): DNC Vice Chair RT Rybak

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MN-D
MN Delegate Selection Plan
DFL State Convention Rules

[Erc]

March 1 Democratic Primaries: Part II

Oklahoma (D)

Overview
42 Delegates (0.88% of total)
Closed Primary
8 At-Large
5 PLEO At-Large
25 by CD
4 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 8 and 5 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 6 for CD 5; 5 for CDs 1,3,4; 4 for CD 3.

Superdelegates

Clinton (1): Betty McElderry

Sanders (1): Vice Chair Connie Johnson

Uncommitted (2): Chair Mark Hammons, Jim Frasier

The Green Papers: OK-D


Tennessee (D)

Overview
75 Delegates (1.57% of total)
Open Primary
14 At-Large
9 PLEO At-Large
44 by CD
8 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 14 and 9 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 7 for CD 9; 6 for CD 5; 5 for CDs 3,7,8; 4 for CDs 1,2,4,6.

Superdelegates

Bloomberg: 6 Clinton - 2 Uncommitted

Confirmed Clinton (5): Rep. Jim Cooper, Rep. Steve Cohen, Gale Jones Carson, Vice Chair John Litz, Bill Owen

Other (3): Vice President Al Gore, Chair Mary Mancini, Will Cheek

Myron Lowery (Clinton) is apparently no longer a superdelegate.

The Green Papers: TN-D

Texas (D)

Overview
251 Delegates (5.27% of total)
Closed Primary*
48 At-Large
29 PLEO At-Large
145 by State Senatorial District.
29 Superdelegates

Details

*See jimrtex's post below for a clarification of how voter affliation works in Texas.

Groups of 48 and 29 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  Unlike most states, the District-level delegates are apportioned by State Senate Districts, not Congressional Districts.  The district delegates are distributed among the SDs as follows: 10 for SD 14; 8 for SDs 13,23; 6 for SDs 10,15,25,26; 5 for SDs 5,8,16,17,19,20,21; 4 for SDs 2,4,6,7,9,11,12,18,22,27,29; 3 for SDs 1,3,24,30; 2 for SDs 28,31.

Superdelegates

Clinton (20): Reps. Rubén Hinojosa, Sheila Jackson Lee, Joaquin Castro, Henry Cuellar, Gene Green, Eddie Bernice Johnson, Marc Veasey, Filemon Vela Jr., and Al Green, Katie Naranjo, Royce West, Jose Rodriguez, Montserrat Garibay, Dennis Speight, Lenora Sorola-Pohlman, Betty Ritchie, Rafael Anchia, Rep. Lloyd Doggett, Chair Gilberto Hinojosa, Garnet Coleman

Uncommitted (9): Rep. Beto O'Rourke, Carol Guthrie, Lorraine Miller, Henry Munoz (Clinton 2008), Senfronia Thompson, John Patrick, Glen Maxey, Yvonne Davis, Vice Chair Fredericka Phillips

The Green Papers: TX-D

Vermont (D)

Overview
26 Delegates (0.55% of total)
Open Primary
3 At-Large
2 PLEO At-Large
11 CD
10 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 3, 2, and 11 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.

Superdelegates

Clinton (4): Ex-DNC Chair Howard Dean, Billi Gosh, Gov. Peter Shumlin, Sen. Pat Leahy

Sanders (6): Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rich Cassidy, Rep. Peter Welch, Chair Dottie Deans, Vice Chair Tim Jerman, Jim Condos

Pat Leahy says he will vote for the pledged delegate winner; as that's overwhelmingly likely to be Clinton, I'm keeping him in the Clinton camp for now.

The Green Papers: VT-D

Virginia (D)

Overview
109 Delegates (2.29% of total)
Open Primary
21 At-Large
12 PLEO At-Large
62 by CD
14 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 21 and 12 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 8 for CDs 3,8; 7 for CD 11; 6 for CDs 4,10; 5 for CDs 1,2,5,7; 4 for CD 6; 3 for CD 9.

Superdelegates

Clinton (13): Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Sen. Mark Warner, Sen. Tim Kaine, Rep. Gerry Connolly, Rep. Don Beyer, Rep. Bobby Scott, Chair Susan Swecker, Sandra Brandt, Frank Leone, Jennifer McClellan, George Wallace, Alice Germond, Vice Chair Fred Hudson

Uncommitted (1): Doris Crouse-Mays

The Green Papers: VA-D

[Erc]

Colorado (D): March 1

Overview
78 Delegates (1.64% of total)
Closed Caucus
14 At-Large
9 PLEO At-Large
43 by CD
12 Superdelegates

At the Caucus

Colorado has a caucus system; like many such systems, it has its own idiosyncrasies.  Unlike in Iowa, a Preference Poll is taken and the raw vote totals are reported to the media.  There is no form of re-caucusing, not that it matters much in a two-person race.  After the Preference Poll, each preference group elects delegates to County Conventions, their number proportional to their result in the Preference Poll.  Some smaller counties elect delegates directly to the CD/State Conventions on March 1.

County Conventions (through March 26)

These conventions elect delegates to the CD and State Conventions, again on a proportional basis.  Strangely, the threshold here is 30%, not 15%; this may be in conflict with national DNC rules.  

CD Conventions: April 1-15

The CD conventions, in early April, allocate these delegates proportionally based on a vote in each CD convention.  The number of delegates per district is: 8 for CD 1; 7 for CD 2; 6 for CDs 3,6,7; 6 for CDs 4,5.

Some language in the Delegate Selection Plan seems to imply that the CD delegates are bound based on the March 1 result, but this is contradicted strongly by other sections of the Plan.

State Convention: April 16

The State Convention chooses the 14 At-Large and 9 Pledged PLEO delegates, allocated proportionally based on a vote of State Convention delegates.  These results may differ somewhat from an allocation based on the March 1 vote, due to the multi-tiered caucus/convention structure.

Superdelegates

Clinton 10 - Uncommitted 2

This count comes from the Bloomberg tracker.

Confirmed Clinton (9): Gov. John Hickenlooper, Sen. Michael Bennet, Rep. Diana DeGette, Rep. Ed Perlmutter, Rep. Jared Polis, Ex-DNC Chair Roy Romer, Bianca O'Leary, Mannie Rodriguez, Anthony Graves

Other DNC (3): Chair Rick Palacio, Vice Chair Beverly Ryken, Lisa Padilla

Denver Mayor Michael Hancock (associated with the National Conference of Democratic Mayors) was a superdelegate pledged to Clinton, but is apparently no longer a superdelegate.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: CO-D
CO Delegate Selection Plan

[jimrtex]

March 1 Democratic Primaries: Part II

Texas (D)

Overview
252 Delegates (5.29% of total)
Closed Primary

I wouldn't characterize Texas as being a closed primary state. Texas does not have partisan registration. Voters are restricted to participating in the nominating activities of one party, including the primary, runoff primary, and conventions. When one votes, a voter does not pledge fealty to a party, but only that they have not voted in the primary of another party. This affiliation only lasts through the remainder of the election year, and for most practical purposes through the runoff primary. Any special elections do not have partisan primaries.

Texas primaries are conducted by the political parties. On election day, the primary of each party may be held in different locations. If they are at the same location, they will be held in different rooms. A voter is quite free to go to the Republican polling place or the Democratic polling place, but not both.

Early voting, which starts tomorrow, is conducted by the county election officials. When you go to an early polling location, you will be asked which primary you wish to vote in. If you have your voter registration card (which are newly printed every two years), it will be stamped with your new affiliation.

[Erc]

Thanks for the clarification!

[Erc]

The AP has conducted a new survey of superdelegates, and their new count shows:

449 Clinton - 19 Sanders

This is a pretty large change from their November survey, which found a 359-8 lead for Clinton.

Versus our current count (434-14), not a huge difference, only a few Clinton supporters slipping through the cracks.  Interesting is the uptick in Sanders support...who are these 5 secret Sanders supporters?  You'd think the Bernie supporters would have posted them all over the internet by now.

EDIT: math fail.

[Erc]

The projected Clinton victory in Nevada means that Clinton should win 19 delegates to Sanders' 16.

This only changes if Clinton should break 58.3% in CDs 2,3, or 4, or Sanders wins CD 1 (or the state).

[JerryArkansas]

Doing rough estimates it looks as if Bernie will win the Second district. 

[Erc]

Doing rough estimates it looks as if Bernie will win the Second district. 

It's a 6-delegate district, so it doesn't matter who wins unless anyone breaks 58.3%.

[JerryArkansas]

Doing rough estimates it looks as if Bernie will win the Second district. 

It's a 6-delegate district, so it doesn't matter who wins unless anyone breaks 58.3%.

I didn't know the 2nd was only 6 delegates.  So yeah it will be a 3-3 split.

[Erc]

Calling all 50 delegates in SC for Trump.

[Classic Conservative]

So far these are the Republican Vote Totals:
Trump: 384,808
Cruz: 249,126
Rubio: 238,656
Kasich: 104,484
Carson: 77,057

[Erc]

Jeb's Delegates

With Jeb out of the race, what happens to his four (4) delegates?  His sole delegate in Iowa remains bound to him, but his three in New Hampshire are effectively released.  This increases the number of effective "superdelegates" in the Republican race from 15 to 18.  We should hopefully know who the three of them are within a few weeks.

[ElectionsGuy]

So far, out of the 103 delegates:

Trump: 67 (65.0%)
Cruz: 11 (10.7%)
Rubio: 10 (9.7%)
Kasich: 5 (4.9%)
Carson: 3 (2.9%)
Uncommitted (dropped out candidates): 7 (6.8%)

[Minnesota Mike]

The projected Clinton victory in Nevada means that Clinton should win 19 delegates to Sanders' 16.

This only changes if Clinton should break 58.3% in CDs 2,3, or 4, or Sanders wins CD 1 (or the state).

According to the Green Papers Hillary is currently at 58.6% in CD 4.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NV-D

Not sure where they are getting their numbers but if it holds the final total would be Hillary 20, Bernie 15.

[Erc]

The projected Clinton victory in Nevada means that Clinton should win 19 delegates to Sanders' 16.

This only changes if Clinton should break 58.3% in CDs 2,3, or 4, or Sanders wins CD 1 (or the state).

According to the Green Papers Hillary is currently at 58.6% in CD 4.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NV-D

Not sure where they are getting their numbers but if it holds the final total would be Hillary 20, Bernie 15.

Thanks!  Moved a delegate from Bernie to Uncommitted until I can verify this.  It may also be close enough that it's the sort of thing that could be undone at later stages of the caucuses due to the multi-stage process, so I'll try to check that out once I have access to precinct-level results.

If Clinton does win the delegate here, it means that according to my count she's negated Sanders' huge win in New Hampshire---or retakes the lead, if she wins that last pledged delegate in Iowa as well.

[Erc]

After digging through the precinct numbers and running through the later stages of the delegate math, Clinton winning the 4th delegate in CD 2 seems assured.  Exactly how the delegates sent from the Clark County Convention to the State Convention are divided up among the Congressional Districts is not perfectly clear, but it doesn't really matter.  Clark County so dominates CD 4, and the number of delegates at the state convention is so large (1 per every 150 registered Democrats) that Hillary cannot lose her slim margin there based on rounding errors or the like.

Sanders' real hope here is differential turnout.  Because the number of delegates at the State Convention is so large, if the Sanders people are just more motivated to show up, they might be able to flip the delegate.  But it's a relatively tall order; effectively, they need 10 Clinton delegates (out of around 600) not to show up, relative to the number of Sanders absences.  But the Convention is on a weekend (May 14-15), presumably is in Las Vegas, and there are alternates.  Barring Paulista-style shenanigans, Clinton is winning that delegate, and I'm allocating it to her on the main page.

[RI]

https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/701850670610194436
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2016-republican.html?platform=hootsuite

Final tally is Trump 11, Kasich 4, Cruz 3, (Bush 3), Rubio 2

[Holmes]

Rubio stays losing.