The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Erc]

Thanks for the sticky!

This should definitely be stickied btw.

Seconded.

Thirded.

Didn't Cruz win Iowa? How did he end up with one less delegate than Trump?

I transposed the Cruz and Trump columns after Trump's decisive NH victory, and forgot to also transpose the results in Iowa.  Fixed now.

[Erc]

So, is the breakdown of delegates Trump:Rubio 11:2 or 10:3? The race is very close for the last delegate. The way I've calculated it, and what you have in this thread, is 11:2. But most of the media is 10:3...

No matter how you slice it, Trump gets 11 and Rubio gets 2.  The media is just wrong on this one.  I'm guessing they rounded prematurely; an 11.0% result would give you 3 delegates, but a 10.6% result gives you 2.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Does the Republican party have super delegates like the Democrats do? I was looking at CNN's result's page for the Democratic caucus in NH, and it said Hillary and Bernie both won 15 delegates, even though she lost big time. I am assuming all the super delegates from NH are backing Hillary.

[danny]

So, is the breakdown of delegates Trump:Rubio 11:2 or 10:3? The race is very close for the last delegate. The way I've calculated it, and what you have in this thread, is 11:2. But most of the media is 10:3...

No matter how you slice it, Trump gets 11 and Rubio gets 2.  The media is just wrong on this one.  I'm guessing they rounded prematurely; an 11.0% result would give you 3 delegates, but a 10.6% result gives you 2.

They rounded on purpose, apparently this is the rule (despite making no sense): https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/697519581884239873

[Erc]

So, is the breakdown of delegates Trump:Rubio 11:2 or 10:3? The race is very close for the last delegate. The way I've calculated it, and what you have in this thread, is 11:2. But most of the media is 10:3...

No matter how you slice it, Trump gets 11 and Rubio gets 2.  The media is just wrong on this one.  I'm guessing they rounded prematurely; an 11.0% result would give you 3 delegates, but a 10.6% result gives you 2.

They rounded on purpose, apparently this is the rule (despite making no sense): https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/697519581884239873

Here's the state law in question:

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Note that it says proportion, not percentage in Paragraph I.

There's a reference to rounding percentages in Paragraph II, though, which struck me as odd.  But it's unclear whether Paragraph I refers to rounding a number of delegates or a percentage.

I'm sticking to my allocation, unless there's something from the Secretary of State that says otherwise.

[Erc]

Important going forward for the Automatic Delegates.  For states that don't specify a process for binding them, they are to be treated as At-Large delegates, according to a recent RNC memo.

[jimrtex]

Important going forward for the Automatic Delegates.  For states that don't specify a process for binding them, they are to be treated as At-Large delegates, according to a recent RNC memo.

The memo is nonsensical.

Rule 16(a)(1) does not clarify. Rather it makes the matter more ambiguous, opaque, and obscure.

Rule 16(b) specifically applies only to at-large and district delegates. Now it appears to be that the RNC counsel is arguing that if, state party rules and state laws do not specify how how the party delegates are to be elected, selected, allocated or bound (because traditionally they have been selected independently of the presidential process, because they are ex officio delegates to the convention), then they are covered by national party rules. And since the national party rules specify that all delegates be bound, they must be "at-large" delegates.

If 20 delegates are allocated on the basis of the popular vote it is:

Trump 7, Kasich 3, Cruz 2, Bush 2, Rubio 2, Christie 1, and Fiorina 1 (2 delegates not allocated due to truncation).

Trump gets the 2 unallocated delegates plus the Christie and Fiorina delegates, since they were below the 10% threshold.

Trump 11, Kasich 3, Cruz 2, Bush 2, Rubio 2, and 3 party delegates.

I think rounding applies to delegates, rather than percentages, in subsection II. Whole number of percentage does not make sense.

[jimrtex]

So, is the breakdown of delegates Trump:Rubio 11:2 or 10:3? The race is very close for the last delegate. The way I've calculated it, and what you have in this thread, is 11:2. But most of the media is 10:3...

Rubio is just short of 2.5, even if 23 delegates are allocated. There were 30 candidates on the ballot plus write-ins, and the allocation is to be based on the total for all candidates. They might have either not considered those votes, or decided to round the percentage to 11%.

The press was wrong in Iowa as well.

[Erc]

Let's took at that Paragraph I again:

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So, reading this literally, it is saying that I am rounding "the proportion" to the nearest whole number.  What does that even mean?

I would say, and I think the common sense interpretation here is, that each candidate receives the same proportion of the delegation as his proportion of the total votes cast, with the number of delegates received rounded to the nearest whole number.

FHQ's and the media's interpretation appears to be that I round the "proportion of...the total votes cast" to the nearest whole percentage point.  That's a huge leap.  And since there aren't exactly 100 delegates, I would then have to round yet again, not something that is anywhere explicitly stated.

Of course, this is looking at Paragraph I in isolation.  Their interpretation seems to rest on the weird language in Paragraph II.

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Why the mention of "any rounding to the nearest whole number"?  I would say that it's a bit odd, but is basically just a clarification that you need to get at least 10.00000% of the vote to receive delegates.  They would say, perhaps, that it implies that the percent of votes a candidate receives is rounded to the nearest whole number by Paragraph I.  I'd still say it's a leap, though.

I'm sticking with my count (which The Green Papers agrees with) unless the Secretary of State says otherwise.  We should know one way or the other within a couple weeks, as the SoS should be notifying the candidates how many delegates they are entitled to soon; 10 days after that the candidates respond with which particular individuals they want to represent them at Cleveland (from a list submitted to the SoS before the primary).


What's crazy is that if you went with the media rounding scheme here, Trump actually receives fewer delegates when there are 23 delegates at play as opposed to 20.

[Erc]

I agree, jimrtex, that that memo leaves something to be desired.  But I'm glad they provided clarification, because it was an open question, and the memo resolves the matter to my general satisfaction.

[Erc]

Republican Superdelegates

EDIT: This post is outdated; I now track these delegates here.

Given the recent memo from the RNC clarifying that the 3 automatic delegates from each state must be bound based on the statewide results, the potential for Republican "superdelegates" to make a difference on the first ballot is much diminished.

In fact, this ruling means that there are only Eighteen (18) delegates who attend by virtue of their position and are entirely free to vote their conscience on the first ballot: three from each state/territory that is holding no sort of public vote this year.  None of them have yet endorsed a candidate.

American Samoa
Utu Abe Malae
Amata Radewagen
Su'a Schuster

Colorado
Steve House
Lily Nuñez
George Leing

Guam
Mike Benito
Margaret Metcalfe
David Sablan

North Dakota
Kelly Armstrong
Sandy Boehler
Curly Haugland

Virgin Islands
John Canegata
Lilliana Belardo de O'Neal
Holland Redfield III

Wyoming
Matt Micheli
Marti Halverson
Greg Schaefer

There will also be other unbound delegates at the Republican National Convention, though they will need to be elected.  These include:

• American Samoa (6)
• Guam (6)
• Louisiana (5): votes for Rubio and Kasich were effectively allocated to an Uncommitted slate.
• Nevada (0-2): Ben Carson's delegates could be unbound at his option.
• New Hampshire (3): Jeb Bush's delegates here are now unbound.
• North Dakota (25)
• Oklahoma (3): votes for Kasich were effectively allocated to an Uncommitted slate.
• Pennsylvania (54): delegates elected on the primary ballot are unbound; no preference is listed on the delegate ballot.
• Virgin Islands (5-6): some Uncommitted delegates were directly elected here, though some are subject to a credentials fight.
• West Virginia (31): delegates elected on the primary ballot may be officially unbound; they list a commitment on the primary ballot.  FHQ believes they are bound by that commitment.

Uncommitted is also a valid option on many ballots, and could in principle receive delegates.  This is only really a likely possibility where delegates are directly elected, as in IL, CO, and WY.  So far, this has only happened in the Virgin Islands.

In total, that's 153 officially unbound delegates, or around 6.2% of the total.  Of course, the WV delegates will have expressed a clear preference.  There's also the 10 delegates still bound to minor candidates that don't seem to get released until after the first ballot.

[PresidentTRUMP]

SC primary is winner takes all, correct? So when trump wins SC he gets all 50 of the delegates?

[The Free North]

SC primary is winner takes all, correct? So when trump wins SC he gets all 50 of the delegates?

I think its winner take all by Congressional district so if Trump were to have his support dispersed fairly evenly amongst the state he should do just fine delegate wise.

[Erc]

SC primary is winner takes all, correct? So when trump wins SC he gets all 50 of the delegates?

I think its winner take all by Congressional district so if Trump were to have his support dispersed fairly evenly amongst the state he should do just fine delegate wise.

There's a pot of 29 At-Large that's Winner Take All, and 3 WTA per congressional distrrict (total of 21).  Barring a really close three-way race, one expects the winner to take at least 41 out of the 50; more if the result isn't at all close.

[Joe Biden 2020]

SC primary is winner takes all, correct? So when trump wins SC he gets all 50 of the delegates?

I think its winner take all by Congressional district so if Trump were to have his support dispersed fairly evenly amongst the state he should do just fine delegate wise.

There's a pot of 29 At-Large that's Winner Take All, and 3 WTA per congressional distrrict (total of 21).  Barring a really close three-way race, one expects the winner to take at least 41 out of the 50; more if the result isn't at all close.

So, we should start getting some separation then, especially if Trump wins?  What about Nevada?

[danny]

So, we should start getting some separation then, especially if Trump wins?  What about Nevada?

This whole thread thread is dedicated to answering these kinds of questions, you don't have to ask, you can just look for an existing post. In the case of the Nevada Republican caucus, that means this post.

[Erc]

Even The Green Papers has folded and gone with the weird rounding rules.  With literally everyone saying the weird rounding rules are correct, I'm reluctantly forced to change my call and move a delegate from Trump to Rubio.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Even The Green Papers has folded and gone with the weird rounding rules.  With literally everyone saying the weird rounding rules are correct, I'm reluctantly forced to change my call and move a delegate from Trump to Rubio.

Looking at the delegate count on both sides right now really shows how in the grand scheme of things how meaningless NH and Iowa really are.

In Iowa Cruz wins the state and ends up with ONE more delegate than Trump and Rubio.

Trump wins NH in a COMPLETE and utter blow out and ends up with a measly 6 more delegates than Kasich and 7 more than Cruz, Rubio and Bush.

Talk about meaningless.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Even The Green Papers has folded and gone with the weird rounding rules.  With literally everyone saying the weird rounding rules are correct, I'm reluctantly forced to change my call and move a delegate from Trump to Rubio.

Looking at the delegate count on both sides right now really shows how in the grand scheme of things how meaningless NH and Iowa really are.

In Iowa Cruz wins the state and ends up with ONE more delegate than Trump and Rubio.

Trump wins NH in a COMPLETE and utter blow out and ends up with a measly 6 more delegates than Kasich and 7 more than Cruz, Rubio and Bush.

Talk about meaningless.

The only meaning they really have is to signal candidates' viability in similar future states.

[Erc]

Arkansas (R) - March 1

Overview
40 Delegates (1.62% of total)
Open Primary
28 At-Large (Proportional, top 3; almost WTA if majority)
12 District (“Winner-Take-Most”)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate wins a majority of the votes in a congressional district, they are awarded 3 delegates.  Otherwise, the winner is awarded 2 and the runner-up is awarded 1.  

Every candidate who earns at least 15% of the statewide vote is awarded 1 At-Large delegate.  If a candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, they are awarded all the remaining At-Large delegates.  Otherwise, the remaining delegates are allocated proportionally among the top three finishers, rounding fractional delegates to the nearest whole number. All rounding error resolution is done in favor of those with the highest vote totals first, as in Alabama.

In the event a presidential candidate does not have enough filed delegate candidates (see next section), they are reallocated to the highest vote-getter in that jurisdiction who does.

Delegate Selection

Candidates for delegate must file at the State GOP headquarters between February 15 and February 29 and pay a $250 filing fee, and must pledge themselves to a candidate when they do so.  Each candidate for President is encouraged to provide the AR GOP with a list of their preferred delegate candidates; if such a list is provided by April 18, it will show up on the later ballots.  The District delegates are selected at Special District Conventions on April 30, while the At-Large Delegates are selected by the State Committee Meeting on May 14.  The delegates to the Special District Conventions are chosen at Special County Conventions in March; one can be a delegate to those conventions by filing in early November 2015.

Results (3/2)

Statewide, Trump and Cruz win 10 delegates each and Rubio wins 8.

In the Congressional Districts, Trump won CDs 1,3, and 4, picking up another 6 delegates.  Cruz placed 2nd in those districts and 1st in CD 2, picking up 5 delegates.  Rubio placed 2nd in CD 2, picking up 1 more delegate.  Results are not complete, but these margins seem secure.

Total: Trump 16, Cruz 15, Rubio 9.

FHQ disagrees with this count, giving Trump another delegate and taking 2 away from Cruz (and apparently not calling a last delegate).

Withdrawal of Candidates / Brokered Convention

All delegates are bound only for the first ballot, unless released by their candidate before that ballot.

Useful Links
AR GOP Delegate Rules
The Green Papers: AR
Frontloading HQ: AR

[Erc]

Colorado (R): March 1 - April 9

Overview
37 Delegates (1.50% of total)
Closed Caucus (non-binding)
13 At-Large
21 District
3 RNC Members

Delegate Selection and Allocation

The Colorado GOP has elected not to hold a Presidential Preference Poll at its caucuses this year.  If it had, delegates would have to be allocated and bound proportionally according to its results; this was avoided by eliminating the poll.  As a result, we will likely know next to nothing about the final delegate allocation from Colorado on the night of March 1.

Caucus-goers in 2917 precincts statewide will elect delegates to the County Assemblies and District Conventions.  By March 24/25, people wishing to run for delegate to the National Convention must file with the State GOP Chair.  On the filing form, delegates may choose to pledge themselves to a particular presidential candidate; this pledge is binding. They may also choose to remain unbound.  There are also strict eligibility rules for National Convention delegates.  In particular, they must have been a delegate at a County Assembly and at either a District Convention (for CD delegates) or the State Convention (for At-Large delegates).

The District Conventions are held (presumably) on April 8.  Each convention chooses its 3 delegates to the National Convention, as well as delegates to the State Convention.  The State Convention on April 9 chooses the 21 At-Large delegates.

At each stage of the process (caucuses, District Conventions and State Convention) voters may cast a number of votes equal to the number of delegates to be chosen by that caucus/convention.  The top delegate candidates are elected by plurality vote, so extensive winnowing is to be expected between stages.  Tactical voting and makeshift alliances may also prove very important at the later stages.

RNC Members

Steve House
Mike Kopp
Lilly Nuñez

Withdrawn Candidates / Brokered Convention

Any bound delegates are only bound for the first ballot; if a candidate releases his delegates or is not placed in nomination, his delegates are unbound.  

Useful Links
Colorado GOP Rules (older version)
Frontloading HQ: CO
The Green Papers: CO

[Erc]

Georgia (R): March 1

Overview
76 Delegates (3.07% of total)
Half-Open Primary
42 District (Winner-Take-Most; WTA if majority)
34 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a presidential candidate receives the majority of votes in a Congressional District, they are allocated 3 delegates; otherwise, the winner is allocated 2 delegates and the runner-up allocated 1.

Statewide, if a candidate receives a majority of the votes, they are awarded all 34 delegates.  Otherwise, delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates receiving at least 20% of the vote.  The exact nature of how this is done is unclear, but it seems that they are allocated based on each candidate’s percentage of the total statewide vote, with all fractions rounded down.  The procedure is then followed again for the remaining unallocated delegates.  If after this there are still any left over, they are given to the winner.

The three RNC members are treated as At-Large delegates for all purposes; they are allocated to the statewide winner.  From my reading of the GA GOP rules, these are part of the above allocation (i.e. 34 delegates are awarded proportionally, and three of the winner’s allocated delegates happen to be RNC members).  Frontloading HQ and The Green Papers disagree with me, claiming that 31 delegates are awarded proportionally, and the 3 RNC members are separately given to the winner.  The appropriate section of the GA GOP rules is as follows:

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Delegate Selection

Delegates are selected at District Conventions on April 16 and the State Convention on June 3/4.  Delegates to these conventions are chosen at County Conventions on March 19, while delegates to those conventions are chosen at Precinct Mass Meetings held March 10-19.

Results (3/2)

The CD delegates break down as Trump 26 - Cruz 9 - Rubio 7.  Rubio's strength was much more concentrated; he won a couple CDs but placed third in a lot more, which hurt him in the delegate count.

The At-Large delegates depend on your interpretation of the rules (i.e. whether RNC members are allocated along with the At-Large delegates or not, and if not, whether fractional delegates are truncated or rounded to the nearest whole delegate).  My interpretation gives Trump 16 - Rubio 9 - Cruz 9.  The Green Papers gives (with a weird interpretation and outdated results) Trump 17 - Rubio 9 - Cruz 8.  Another plausible interpretation (apparently favored by FHQ) would give Trump 18 - Rubio 8 - Cruz 8.

Withdrawals / Brokered Convention

All delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless their candidate withdraws before the convention.

Useful Links
GA GOP Rules
Frontloading HQ: GA
The Green Papers: GA
Georgia State Code

[Erc]

Massachusetts (R): March 1

Overview
42 Delegates (1.70% of total)
Half-Open Primary
42 At-Large (Proportional, 5% threshold)

Delegate Allocation
42 Delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates who receive at least 5% of the vote in the primary.  Each candidate receives the same proportion of delegates as their proportion of the vote among all candidates meeting the the threshold, with rounding done to the nearest whole number.  Any rounding errors are resolved by giving delegates to the winner or removing delegates from the last-place finisher, as necessary.

Delegate Selection
27 Delegates are selected at District Conventions on April 23, and 12 delegates are selected by the State Committee in early June.

Results (3/2)

Candidate	Percent	Delegates
Trump	49.3%	22
Kasich	18.0%	8
Rubio	17.8%	8
Cruz	9.6%	4

This is in agreement with FHQ and The Green Papers.


Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention
Delegates are bound on the first ballot unless released by their candidate.

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It's not clear that this law actually applies to MA's delegates, the selection of which are not subject to the approval of a presidential candidate.  That said, it was considered binding in 2012, when the delegates were Ron Paul supporters despite a Romney landslide in the state; they were forced to vote for Romney at the convention.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MA-R
Frontloading HQ: MA
MA G.L. c.53, §70I

[Erc]

Minnesota (R): March 1

Overview
38 Delegates (1.70% of total)
Open Caucus (Binding)
24 District (Proportional, 10% threshold)
14 At-Large (Proportional, 10% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

The 14 At-Large delegates are allocated proportionally to all candidates meeting a 10% threshold.  Each candidate receives the same proportion of delegates as their proportion of the vote among all candidates meeting the the threshold, with rounding done to the nearest whole number.  This starts with the winner and then proceeds down; if delegates are yet to be assigned at the end, round up the candidate closest to receiving an additional delegate.

The same allocation procedure occurs for the 3 delegates in each Congressional District, based on the vote in that district; this is quite likely just to give a delegate to each of the top three finishers in each district, unless any candidate has a majority of the threshold-clearing vote.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at District Conventions in late April / early May, and at the State Convention on May 20.  Delegates to these conventions are chosen at BPOU Conventions in March/April, while delegates to those conventions are chosen at the caucuses.

Results (3/2)

Based on their results of the statewide vote, Rubio wins 6 delegates, Cruz 5, and Trump 3.  In CDs 3, 4, and 5, Rubio won a majority of the threshold-clearing vote, winning 2 delegates to Cruz's 1.  In the other 5 CDs, Rubio, Cruz, and Trump each won 1 delegate.

Totals:  Rubio 17, Cruz 13, Trump 8.


Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention
At-Large Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless released by their candidate, or their candidate withdraws.  This is confirmed by the pledge signed by all delegate candidates.  The MN GOP says that Rubio's delegates are released if he "is not on the first ballot"; so it seems that this is what is meant by "withdrawal."

As a result, I am releasing Rubio's delegates, as he will not be on the first ballot barring changes in Rule 40.

Jeff Kolb raises an interesting point that the Delegate Selection Rules may be illegitimate; I sincerely doubt this is the case, but we'll see how this plays out down the line.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MN-R
MN GOP Constitution
Frontloading HQ: MN
MN Delegate Allocation Rules

[Erc]

Milestone on the superdelegates front:

Today's additions (Alma Gonzalez from FL and some previously-missed Puerto Rico endorsements) have pushed Clinton to over 60% support from superdelegates.