National- IBD/TIPP polls for DEM and GOP

[weixiaobao]

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-polls/011116-789089-hillaryclinton-lead-nearly-vanishes-among-democrats.htm

Trump 34, Cruz 18, Rubio 9, Carson 8, Christie 4, Bush 4, Paul 3, Fiorina 2, Kasich 2, Huckabee 1, Santorum 0

Clinton 43, Sanders 39, O'Malley 2

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Holy wow @ the dem part!

[Eraserhead]

RCP average included this.

lol, can't say I'm not enjoying things at the moment.

[Wells]

The Sanders number looks OK, but why is Clinton so low??! Her lead is within the margin of error! Outlier, maybe? The Republican numbers look good though.
Hmm, it looks like this pollster gets a B rating from 538. And the last paragraph of the article is basically telling us that they're the most accurate pollster.

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These recent polls are great for Sanders. Can't say I'm disappointed.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, Bernie only 4 points short of Hillary. #FeelTheBern

[Mr. Morden]

Full crosstabs are listed here:

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ibdtippjanuarypoll.pdf

[bigedlb]

Holy wow @ the dem part!

If you compare to the IBD poll in December, Trump +7, Cruz +5, Rubio -5, Carson -7, Christie +2, Bush +1.  Hillary -8, Sanders +6, O'Malley +1

[This account no longer in use.]

Thank god TEH FRIST WOMEN PREISDENT!!1!11!1 is falling.

[Phony Moderate]

Holy wow @ the dem part!

If you compare to the IBD poll in December, Trump +7, Cruz +5, Rubio -5, Carson -7, Christie +2, Bush +1.  Hillary -8, Sanders +6, O'Malley +1

So a significant trend towards the populist and radical candidates. Let's see if this is backed up in other polls.

[bigedlb]

It is interesting how close the REP result is to the recent Yougov poll is, and how different the Dem side is.  R 34-18 IBD, 36-19 YG.  D 43-39 IBD, 54-37 YG

[The Other Castro]

Wow, I didn't think we'd see a <5 point lead until after New Hampshire.

[Zanas]

It's been a few polls now that Sanders have been doing greatly in. This one may be a little too much, but clearly Sanders is gaining ground these days.

With this one in the RCP average, Sanders is at his highest ever (35.5) and the gap at its lowest ever (+12.8 for Clinton).

[muon2]

It is interesting how close the REP result is to the recent Yougov poll is, and how different the Dem side is.  R 34-18 IBD, 36-19 YG.  D 43-39 IBD, 54-37 YG

The pairs of numbers suggests that YouGov has a smaller undecided pool. On the Dem side IBD has 18% undecided (+O'Malley) and it's 9% in YouGov. It could be that YouGov gets more of the lean establishment to commit than IBD. The undecideds are much higher for Pubs on IBD, too: 15% to 6%. If the same effect is happening on the Pub side it might not be noticed in the top two since neither Trump nor Cruz is establishment.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

In a Trump vs. Sanders race, Bloomberg wins.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

In a Trump vs. Sanders race, Bloomberg wins.

Bloomberg would never win.

[Ebsy]

I'm not saying that the race hasn't tightened in the last week or two, but the undecideds on this poll are a bit high.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Jesus the anti muslim sentiment is strong in this poll.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Jesus the anti muslim sentiment is strong in this poll.

Did you honestly expect it not to be?

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Jesus the anti muslim sentiment is strong in this poll.

Did you honestly expect it not to be?

Well every other country is against this so the US is alone on this one. Lots of Americans are against the constitution.

[/]

Hilarious Clinton #s

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Hilarious Clinton #s

Even when Biden was being polled in the race she was higher then 43.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Clinton collapsing! Sanders surging! Clinton lead under 6 points! SANDERSMENTUM!

[The Other Castro]

Interesting details in the crosstabs (found them through huffpollster):

Men: Sanders leads 45-39
Women: Clinton leads 46-36
Whites: Sanders leads 48-41
Blacks: Clinton leads 56-18
Hispanics: Clinton leads 37-33(!)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Excellent news! Of course Hillary is still up more than 4 points.

What's interesting is that there's definitely a gender gap, but not with whites. Bernie actually leads white women 48-41.

Wow, I didn't think we'd see a <5 point lead until after New Hampshire.

Agreed.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Looking at the 2007 polls, while Obama had done better in some polls in the first half of 2007, the best poll for him for the 7 months before Iowa was a Hillary +5 poll. On the day of the Iowa caucus, the RCP average was Hillary +20.2. This isn't just deja vu, Bernie is doing better than Obama was.