Sanders vs Trump

[Oakvale]

My prediction:

Vermont is within 10 points.

[°Leprechaun]

All these predictions are interesting, but until we actually know who the nominees are it is just hypothetical speculation, like saying "what if" to things that "might" have happened in the past.
One thing we do know. It will be some Democrat against some Republican and whoever the two candidates are, I am willing to predict that any Democrat will defeat any Republican. That's assuming that both candidates are among those currently running rather than someone chosen in a brokered convention. So, I am sure someone out there can challenge that now if they want to and if I am wrong can say "I told you so" to which my response will be something like "Oh why don't you shut up". But hypothetical scenarios don't count. Only if the Republican wins can you say "I told you so" and even then at your own risk 'cause I'll probably be mad enough as it is. Right now my attitude is let's just wait and see. This election is going to be way interesting. I don't think the two current front runners Clinton and Trump are the inevitable nominees but they could be. Like I said, let's wait and see. The clock is ticking and we'll know soon enough the direction that this election is taking. All the predictions will be denied or confirmed... end of rant...

[Zache]

I doubt Sanders would win Nevada and New Mexico if you're assuming Hispanics don't vote Republican. He's not all that much less anti-immigrant than TRUMP, and the latter's massive majorities with almost every other section of the electorate and ~30% of the black vote in this scenario would give him the win handily.

Why and how would Trump get 30% of the black vote?

[°Leprechaun]

Best case scenario for any Democrat vs any Republican would be a narrow win so this would include Sanders v Trump:

[Oakvale]

I doubt Sanders would win Nevada and New Mexico if you're assuming Hispanics don't vote Republican. He's not all that much less anti-immigrant than TRUMP, and the latter's massive majorities with almost every other section of the electorate and ~30% of the black vote in this scenario would give him the win handily.

Why and how would Trump get 30% of the black vote?

I would assume that he got the Republican Primary poll numbers confused with the national election. It's the only way I get to those numbers.

No.

Trump has a great relationship with the blacks and is from cosmopolitan New York, whereas Bernie Sanders, an out of touch leftist, represents one of the whitest states in the country. Whereas Sanders will still likely win the black vote, Trump will have the best performance in decades among that demographic once the scale of the landslide becomes apparent.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If you have an R next to your name you most of the time get ignored as a candidate by the African American community. Trump is no different he at best will get 5-9% of the black vote

[Seneca]

My prediction:

Vermont is within 10 points.

Flip Utah; the Mormons won't be voting for Trump.

[°Leprechaun]

My prediction:

Vermont is within 10 points.

The odds of someone here winning the powerball are more likely than this map. I hope you all bought a ticket, however.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The guy running against the billionaires beats the billionaire.

[Virginiá]

If you have an R next to your name you most of the time get ignored as a candidate by the African American community. Trump is no different he at best will get 5-9% of the black vote

Pretty much. Also (for the guy and his magical 30%):

http://www.gallup.com/poll/184547/clinton-favorability-strong-among-black-americans.aspx

80% of African American's give Clinton a favorable rating, with only 10% unfavorable.
20% give Trump a favorable rating, with 63% unfavorable. Jeb Bush's favorable percentage among AAs is 21%, Christie is 23%, etc.

Trump has no special appeal to blacks and he's not even most favorable among the GOP candidates. Though, favorable/unfavorable doesn't really determine how many votes they get, it can give you a rudimentary idea of how one group may vote.

Meanwhile, blacks give Obama an approval rating between 80% - 90%, so in a Clinton v Trump election, I seriously, seriously, seriously doubt Trump would do any better than other GOP candidates.

(poll is from August, and recent polls show Trump's favorable rating at 70%+ among blacks - http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-favorability-stable-divisions-groups-poll/story?id=35497575)

[Thunderbird is the word]

Senator Bernie Sanders (D)-Vermont/Congressman Raul Grijalcva (D)-Arizona 325
Businessman Donald Trump (R)-New York/Congressman Steve King (R)-Iowas 213

[Maxwell]

I'd be surprised if Trump actually lost. Trump is a far craftier politician.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I'd love watching the debates, it'd be like watching two guys get into a fight on the subway.

[anvi]

What a scenario.
It's really cruel to make me cry on a Friday, you know.

I honestly don't know who would win.
Demographics might suggest Sanders, but the American character suggests Trump.

[This account no longer in use.]

Senator Bernie Sanders (D)-Vermont/Congressman Raul Grijalcva (D)-Arizona 325
Businessman Donald Trump (R)-New York/Congressman Steve King (R)-Iowas 213

Sanders winning Arizona, but not Ohio?

[Lief 🗽]

I mean, did you folks watch the debate last night? Say what you will about the guy's positions or whatever, but he's a hell of a politician. Everyone up there is play-acting, running through their lines. Trump looks straight in the camera, talks like a normal person, says what he needs to say, and connects with people. For god's sake, the front runner for the Republican nomination had the entire city of New York, full of godless liberals and deranged fornicators, cheering him on last night. He's so fcking good at this. Once he wins the primary, I think he tacks hard to the center, and after that happens he's going to be very hard to stop.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Senator Bernie Sanders (D)-Vermont/Congressman Raul Grijalcva (D)-Arizona 325
Businessman Donald Trump (R)-New York/Congressman Steve King (R)-Iowas 213

Sanders winning Arizona, but not Ohio?

I think that Democrats have a shot in AZ due to the Hispanic vote turning out overwhelmingly against Trump who wins Ohio due to white working class support.

[RJEvans]

Too early to tell. Trump has been the center of attention for either party since June of last year. Bernie Sanders have not been vetted by the media. There has been very little on the guy and the polls reflect that. I don't know how voters or Sanders will respond to attack ads that call him socialist/communist, say he's going to spend $35 trillion, raise your taxes to 90% or take away your private health insurance. Will voters see through those attacks? Will they care?