If Trump wins in a landslide, what happens in 2020?
Seneca:
Quote from: pbrower2a on January 09, 2016, 10:23:16 AM
-snip-
Holy hell are you a hack. Just because you can't imagine a thing happening does not preclude it from happening. As a white person you may not be aware of this, but white people are extremely jumpy, easily scared by the smallest of things. Think of all the white people who roll their windows up when they have to get off the interstate in a less-white part of town. Those people, collectively, are Trump's ceiling. 70ish% of the white vote breaking to Trump produces a map like mine.
YaBoyNY:
Quote from: Seneca on January 09, 2016, 10:55:21 AM
Quote from: pbrower2a on January 09, 2016, 10:23:16 AM
-snip-
Holy hell are you a hack. Just because you can't imagine a thing happening does not preclude it from happening. As a white person you may not be aware of this, but white people are extremely jumpy, easily scared by the smallest of things. Think of all the white people who roll their windows up when they have to get off the interstate in a less-white part of town. Those people, collectively, are Trump's ceiling. 70ish% of the white vote breaking to Trump produces a map like mine.
Right.
But getting to 70%ish is basically impossible.
Young Conservative:
Quote from: Teddy Lee, Bass God of the West on January 08, 2016, 07:08:31 PM
-On domestic policy, I think he would spar a bit with the establishment, but let's not forget that (no matter your opinion of him) he's a very effective dealmaker. He would probably manage to get thins done, but in a way that makes him look like he's fighting the establishment.
-I imagine that Democratic gains would probably be mitigated by an unfavorable Senate map. If the GOP gains in the House in 2016 are as large as the map would suggest and they also hold their competitive seats, the Dems could have more inroads there.
-Whether he would get primaried depends on how popular he is: if his comments continue and make him unpopular, I could see the establishment fielding a challenger. However, a nasty primary would damage them badly going into the general, so I suspect they would just work to get him reelected.
-The 2020 field for Democrats would be quite large. I imagine that most people that opted out this year (Booker, Gillibrand, possibly Warren) would get in. If Castro is the VP pick this time, he could run. If Kamala Harris is elected to the Senate, she would also be an option. I think that, pending reelection, Tammy Baldwin would be an interesting choice. Andrew Cuomo could also go for it, but he doesn't seem like a good pick. I could also see Brian Schatz, Steve Bullock, or Chris Murphy running, depending on what they do during Trump's term.
The elites would never let Baldwin win. Many in her party wouldn't support her. she's completely unelectable
Mike Thick:
Quote from: youngconservative on January 10, 2016, 12:34:00 AM
Quote from: Teddy Lee, Bass God of the West on January 08, 2016, 07:08:31 PM
-On domestic policy, I think he would spar a bit with the establishment, but let's not forget that (no matter your opinion of him) he's a very effective dealmaker. He would probably manage to get thins done, but in a way that makes him look like he's fighting the establishment.
-I imagine that Democratic gains would probably be mitigated by an unfavorable Senate map. If the GOP gains in the House in 2016 are as large as the map would suggest and they also hold their competitive seats, the Dems could have more inroads there.
-Whether he would get primaried depends on how popular he is: if his comments continue and make him unpopular, I could see the establishment fielding a challenger. However, a nasty primary would damage them badly going into the general, so I suspect they would just work to get him reelected.
-The 2020 field for Democrats would be quite large. I imagine that most people that opted out this year (Booker, Gillibrand, possibly Warren) would get in. If Castro is the VP pick this time, he could run. If Kamala Harris is elected to the Senate, she would also be an option. I think that, pending reelection, Tammy Baldwin would be an interesting choice. Andrew Cuomo could also go for it, but he doesn't seem like a good pick. I could also see Brian Schatz, Steve Bullock, or Chris Murphy running, depending on what they do during Trump's term.
The elites would never let Baldwin win. Many in her party wouldn't support her. she's completely unelectable
That's probably true, but most people would have said the same of Trump.
Virginiá:
Isn't Baldwin gay? There's nothing wrong with that, but purely for the sake of contemporary politics, Democrats would eventually have to start running candidates that have some viability in the South, and at the very least, don't alienate even more white voters there.
This bum rush of identity politics since 2008, to me, is wonderful, but it's also the equivalent of taking a flamethrower the Democratic party in the Old South / rural states.
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