If Trump wins in a landslide, what happens in 2020?
Seneca:
Assume bad things happen in 2016 scaring white people so much that they vote for Trump en mass. The map looks something like this.
Presumably Republicans do quite well in Congressional and other elections, strengthening their control in the Senate and in state governments across the country. What happens next (after Atlas liberals collectively faint)?
* Does Trump acquiesce to the Republican establishment and sign off on some kind of "Ryan Plan" that eviscerates social spending while slashing taxes for the wealthy, or does he stick to his idiosyncratic guns and clash with Congressional GOP leadership?
* Will Democrats make big gains in the 2018 midterm elections (despite a map which forces them to be quite defensive)?
* Does Trump get primaried in 2020? If so, by whom?
* Which Democrats run for President in 2020?
Mike Thick:
-On domestic policy, I think he would spar a bit with the establishment, but let's not forget that (no matter your opinion of him) he's a very effective dealmaker. He would probably manage to get thins done, but in a way that makes him look like he's fighting the establishment.
-I imagine that Democratic gains would probably be mitigated by an unfavorable Senate map. If the GOP gains in the House in 2016 are as large as the map would suggest and they also hold their competitive seats, the Dems could have more inroads there.
-Whether he would get primaried depends on how popular he is: if his comments continue and make him unpopular, I could see the establishment fielding a challenger. However, a nasty primary would damage them badly going into the general, so I suspect they would just work to get him reelected.
-The 2020 field for Democrats would be quite large. I imagine that most people that opted out this year (Booker, Gillibrand, possibly Warren) would get in. If Castro is the VP pick this time, he could run. If Kamala Harris is elected to the Senate, she would also be an option. I think that, pending reelection, Tammy Baldwin would be an interesting choice. Andrew Cuomo could also go for it, but he doesn't seem like a good pick. I could also see Brian Schatz, Steve Bullock, or Chris Murphy running, depending on what they do during Trump's term.
Sumner 1868:
Trump would not win WI, MN or NH even in a landslide.
Seneca:
Quote from: tara gilesbie on January 08, 2016, 10:47:28 PM
Trump would not win WI, MN or NH even in a landslide.
But he would win Michigan? Thanks for the input!
pbrower2a:
Quote from: Seneca on January 08, 2016, 06:46:53 PM
Assume bad things happen in 2016 scaring white people so much that they vote for Trump en mass. The map looks something like this.
No way does Trump win either Michigan, Minnesota, or Wisconsin. Michigan has a larger percentage of blacks than any non-Southern states other than Delaware, Maryland, or Virginia (I now consider Virginia a Northern state). Of course this is no landslide, basically Kerry 2004 with New Mexico and Pennsylvania exchanged. Minnesota swings less than any other state, and the GOP is now toxic in Wisconsin.
I see Donald Trump as a Republican mirror image (except for being a rake) of Jimmy Carter, an 'outsider' who has very specific ideas of how to change America and unable to achieve them -- and having no Plan B. There might be something to running the federal government like a business -- except that justice, diplomacy, welfare, and the Armed Services cannot be run on profit-and loss bases.
The only effective President who had little-to-no experience in elected office who was at all effective since the Civil War was Dwight Eisenhower. Ike at the least had the difficult task of lobbying for funds in a Depression economy with a war-loathing populace, so he got some idea of how Congress works. Trump has no legislative experience, and no experience as a government executive even in a cabinet position.
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They might have done well in 'Congressional and other' elections in 2016 -- but he will have to get miracles and dodge any possible economic downturn in 2017 and 2018 to avoid a scenario analogous to 2006 for Congressional Republicans. Get an economic downturn and have no idea of how to stop it except doing more of the same to intensify hardships for potential voters, and the Democrats will have elections like those of 1930.
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Donald Trump is a crony capitalist. If he should sign off on the destruction of the welfare state while cutting taxes for the super-rich, then he could be Herbert Hoover, Version 2.0
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Even poor, white Christian fundamentalist Protestants in the South have their limits. An image of America which looks like some old Bible-related movies of the 1950s in which amoral elites indulge themselves with no limits while the masses suffer extreme poverty will create plenty of opportunities for Democrats.
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Republicans would have nobody to primary him in 2020 if the economy goes sour. If the situation is more like 1980 in which Donald Trump has an administrative mess and no clue of how to solve things, then he will be weakened in a primary. Either way he loses. See "1932" and "1980".
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FDR, Version 2.0... someone who has resisted the national trend of austerity for the poor and enhanced indulgence for elites, should America have the start of a Great Depression, Version 2.2. If it is simply an administrative mess, then look to Barack Obama, Version 2.0 as a memory of the last somewhat-effective President.
...imagine an electoral map in which the Democratic winner wins all but roughly 50 electoral votes, because that is what 1932 and 1980 maps were. Basically take all states that Carter won in 1976 and Obama won in 2008 and add Arizona.
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